Fearful Forecast 2006

NFC EAST

N.Y. Giants (4) - Eli Manning's continued improvement will be the key to the G-men's fortunes. An overhauled defensive back seven will help, headlined by OLB LaVar Arrington, who's desperate for a fresh start and a chance to stick it to his former team.

Philadelphia (5) - Overly optimistic? Yes. (Remember, I'm biased.) But what you also have to remember is that everything that could go wrong for a team in a season short of a death went wrong for the Eagles last year. (Jerome McDougle getting carjacked and shot didn’t even crack the top five.) Donovan McNabb is healthy and has something to prove, the defense should return to form, and new WR Donte' Stallworth will help the offense.

Dallas - Way too many questions. Was Bill Parcells actually considering Tony Romo as a serious option at quarterback? Is last season's catastrophic playoff miss still in new kicker Mike Vanderjagt's head? Can the offensive line keep Drew Bledsoe upright? Oh... and the T.O. time bomb is already ticking.

Washington - The Redskins won their last five to reach the playoffs with a pedestrian offense, and I don't know if it's gotten any better. Antwaan Randle El only caught 35 passes last year, Brandon Lloyd's nothing but a highlight reel, and Mark Brunell's dangerously close to the end.

NFC NORTH

Minnesota (3) - How do you clear out all of your playmakers on offense and get picked to win a division title? Simple: You play in a horrible division with a very easy schedule (they get Carolina, New England and St. Louis at home) and the most reliable starting quarterback in said division. If new RB Chester Taylor proves he’s a No. 1 guy, this team will be helped immensely.

Chicago - They're not going to sneak up on teams anymore, and if opponents can luckbox their way into 13 points, they'll win because the Bears did absolutely nothing to improve their offense. Rex Grossman still isn't any good, and Brian Griese's his backup.

Detroit - This team is screwed for at least the next three years because of a multitude of bad decisions. New head coach Rod Marinelli may have the league's most thankless job at the moment. Jon Kitna, while not a terrible quarterback, is not the guy who's going to clean up this mess.

Green Bay - Brett Favre will immediately regret this decision. Didn't I say that last year? And every single move the Packers made was designed with the idea of getting him to retire in mind, and that didn't work. QUARTERBACK PROJECTION FOR 2006: Aaron Rodgers starts a game this year.

NFC SOUTH

Carolina (1) - Steve Smith's balky hamstrings are cause for concern, but his maturation and mergence last year made a good team borderline great. The Panthers have very few weaknesses and could win it all.

Atlanta (6) - Lost in the Falcons' overall drop-off last season was the fact that the defense suffered a drop-off. John Abraham should help fix that, bolstering the pass rush to help out their young corners. Also - and this is based on little more than a few games of observation where he seemed to start trusting his WRs more and a hunch - I think Michael Vick's gonna have a big year.

Tampa Bay - And it'll come at the expense of the Bucs, who are good enough to win 10 games and not get out of one of the league's toughest divisions. Chris Simms showed signs of being a keeper and will get every chance to succeed, but he needs WR Michael Clayton to bounce back.

New Orleans - Things can only go up for the Saints, whose collective football IQ took a big leap when Jim Haslett was fired and Aaron Brooks was allowed to leave. Drew Brees and Reggie Bush were brought in to energize the offense and the city, but there's still a lot of work to do to make this team respectable.

NFC WEST

Seattle (2) - Last year's Super Bowl losers have to deal with the Madden cover curse on top of it. And Shaun Alexander's not going to have a repeat of last season - that just doesn't happen. But what's gonna save them is the mediocrity of their division.

St. Louis - It'd be almost impossible for Scott Linehan to be a worse game-day coach than Mike Martz, so that's a step up. They filled a lot of holes in the offseason and still have plenty of offensive talent. That and a relatively easy schedule could set this team up as a surprise playoff team.

Arizona - The addition of Edge was vital, and Matt Leinart falling into their laps should bode well for the future, but until they prove otherwise, they're still the Arizona Cardinals. I'll believe it when it happens. Not a moment sooner.

San Francisco - Their best defensive player left to sign with a division rival. Their best offensive player is a rookie tight end. This ... this is gonna take a while.

AFC EAST

New England (2) - Is the Deion Branch situation the beginning of the end? Too soon to tell. But the Pats lost some key players and may be reeling after a rare playoff loss. That aside, they're not going to beat themselves.

Miami - The Dolphins actually came on last season, showing that they're buying what Nick Saban's selling. Then they went out and grabbed Daunte Culpepper, whose recovery from completely shredding his knee has been remarkable. But it'll all be for naught if he plays like he did before he got hurt last year. Their defense is showing its age a bit but is still solid.

Buffalo - The Bills haven't done anything right since drafting Willis McGahee three years ago. Other than him, Nate Clements and London Fletcher, there's very little to like here. They'd be a candidate for the worst team in the league if not for...

N.Y. Jets - Last year the bottom fell out, and whether it looks like it or not, the Jets are starting over. Rookie offensive linemen D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold should anchor the line for the next 10 years. Who will be behind them is another matter entirely.

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis (3) – Dominic Rhodes and rookie Joseph Addai should pick up for the departed Edgerrin James, but I’m worried that the Colts have taken too many hits to their collective psyche with their playoff failures to make another big run at a Super Bowl.

Jacksonville (6) – The Jaguars sneaked into the playoffs last year and may have to do so again. The offense needs to find another level if this team wants to be a Super Bowl contender.

Houston - Mario Williams may turn out to be a top player, but the Texans still drafted the wrong guy No. 1. The biggest surprise here is that David Carr's still alive.

Tennessee - There's chaos in Nashville right now, where the last-minute addition of Kerry Collins has people wondering about the quarterback situation. But which of Travis Henry, Chris Brown and LenDale White will be the main running back? And will Pac-Man Jones ever pull his head out of his ass?

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh (1) - Ben's health problems notwithstanding, the champs are still the champs, and they didn't lose anyone who can't be replaced. And don't forget, they didn't win the division last year.

Cincinnati (5) - Carson Palmer looks fine coming back from his knee surgery, and will again be at the helm of one of the league's best offenses. An improved defense will help make life easier for the Bengals, and it'll have to be with their brutal schedule.

Baltimore - Kyle Boller finally started getting it late last season, but Steve McNair was brought in because head coach Brian Billick's job is on the line, whether anyone will admit it or not. While his presence will help, I don't think it'll be enough in what's become a much tougher division.

Cleveland - The Browns still aren't good, but new DE Willie McGinest brings winning credentials and badly needed leadership, and Kellen Winslow II and Braylon Edwards can add some firepower and attitude if they stay healthy for once.

AFC WEST

Denver (4) - Is the Jake Plummer era already ending? The drafting of QB Jay Cutler would seem to say so. It really doesn't matter anymore who's running the ball for this team, but I fear Cutler's presence will mess with Plummer's head, and we all know wht happens when Plummer's head's messed up.

San Diego - I still don't like that they let Drew Brees walk when they could have gotten something for him but whatever. They still have LDT, and he’s going to have to carry even more of the load until Philip Rivers and the defense prove themselves. Fortunately, LDT’s good enough to do that.

Kansas City - Larry Johnson's studliness aside, I think their window's closed. The rest of the offense is getting old, the wide receivers are still crappy, and the defense still hasn't undergone the overhaul it's needed for years.

Oakland - They might as well have brought Kerry Collins back if they were going to sign Aaron Brooks instead. You think Jerry Porter's pissed off now (and there's a certain irony in a team with Randy Moss having an unhappy WR and it's NOT Moss), what's gonna happen after Brooks throws the other way into double coverage? Plus they lost their best defensive back and DE Derrick Burgess is on schedule to rip his knee up again.

WILD CARD

N.Y. Giants over Philadelphia; Atlanta over Minnesota
Indianapolis over Jacksonville; Cincinnati over Denver

DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS

Carolina over Atlanta; N.Y. Giants over Seattle
Indianapolis over New England; Pittsburgh over Cincinnati

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

Carolina over N.Y. Giants
Pittsburgh over Indianapolis

SUPER BOWL XLI

Carolina over Pittsburgh