Fearful Forecast 2012: NFC

Thought this was dead, didn't you? Yeah, so did I. Fell behind and never caught up. But I learned a few things from last year's aborted effort:

1. Don't be away from home on a weekend. This normally isn't an issue, but Week 3 was my 15-year college reunion and I spent that Sunday at my parents' house, so I couldn't write up my notes during the games and my brain only holds so much material at once.

2. Stick to a schedule. This'll be easier with Thursday night games now every week, so posts will be up on Wednesdays.

Let's run this back.

NFC EAST

(4) Philadelphia: Go back to the beginning of last season and think of all the things that went wrong for the Eagles last year. The defensive coordinator spent most of the season in over his head. DeSean Jackson spent the whole season moping over his contract. Most of the big-ticket signings didn't pan out. Michael Vick didn't come close to repeating his 2010 season and missed games with injuries. They hosted the Arizona Cardinals. Now consider that all of those things happened and they still went 8-8 in what was a bad year for the division as a whole, and were a blown fourth-quarter lead away from a division title. That said, miss the playoffs again and it's the end for Reid and Vick.

(6) N.Y. Giants: The reigning champions are really only the reigning champions because of Eli Manning, who carried a team that struggled to run the ball and stop opponents for most of the season. Then they followed an eerily familiar path to their second title in four years. So why aren't they my division champs? 'Cause the Eagles kind of have their number. (Also, fun fact: Seven of the last year's division champions were different from the year before.)

Dallas: I'm not sure how much more time the main nucleus of this team (Romo, Witten, Ware, Ratliff) has left. Dez Bryant's effectively on house arrest. And legitimate questions are resurfacing on Jason Garrett as a head coach. Another new starting running back and much-needed upgrades at cornerback will help, but I'm just not sure how much. Plus, the Giants kind of have their number.

Washington: Mike Shanahan's betting the farm -- literally -- on rookie QB Robert Griffin III, who seems to have his head on straight and who I will not enjoy rooting against for the next decade. But they're relying on a lot of unproven guys to suddenly prove themselves and I don't know that all of them will come through. Shanahan bought himself some more time with RGIII, but this team needs to turn the corner soon.

NFC NORTH

(2) Green Bay: Last year's prohibitive Super Bowl favorites were done in by a bad playoff performance that got blamed on a defense that played below its talent level. (Losing Cullen Jenkins arguably hurt them more than getting him helped the Eagles.) So they did the smart thing and went and got more players. The offense? Don't worry about the offense.

(5) Chicago: Jay Cutler finally has a top receiving target in former Broncos teammate Brandon Marshall, if the latter can stay out of trouble and the offensive line can keep the former upright. Michael Bush joins Matt Forte in the backfield to keep defenses honest. They'll need improved play from the back end of their defense, but their special teams are second to none -- you know about Devin Hester, but Robbie Gould may actually be the best kicker in the league.

Detroit: The Lions finally broke out of their decades-long malaise, going 10-6 and making the playoffs on the strength of a mostly-healthy Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, who's simply one of the game's best players. They also developed a nasty streak that rubbed some opposing players -- and coaches -- the wrong way and hurt them at times. I don't think they improved enough to put them ahead of the Bears, though.

Minnesota: It's no fun being the fourth team in a three-team division. It's even less fun when your best offensive player (Adrian Peterson) is coming back from blowing his knee out and you don't have anyone else with experience at being a good offensive NFL player. This is Year 2 of a rebuilding project and don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

NFC SOUTH

(3) Atlanta: Quarterback Matt Ryan and head coach Mike Smith have a lot of questions to answer, and this may be their best chance to answer them in the affirmative. Their new pass-oriented offense should make receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones even more dangerous, and this division hasn't had a repeat winner since ever. The addition of cornerback Asante Samuel worries me, though... we've all seen what happens to Eagles when they become ex-Eagles.

New Orleans: The only good thing that's happened to the Saints since the end of last season was Drew Brees' new contract and even that took entirely too long to resolve. I can't be the only one who thinks that the fallout from the bounty scandal will have an adverse effect on this team. Of course, there's still enough left, especially on offense, for them to still be dangerous, and the "us against the world" mentality may never be in purer form than it will be here.

Carolina: I thoiught every quarterback drafted in the first round last year was terribly overdrafted, including No. 1 overall pick Cam Newton, who exceeded my expectations throwing to Steve Smith 1.0 and basically nobody else. The offensive line is an underrated strength, but there just isn't enough talent here yet to contend with the top two teams.

Tampa Bay: After scrapping their way to 10 wins two years ago, the Bucs crashed last season as quarterback Josh Freeman regressed badly. In the most surprising coaching hire of the offseason, former Rutgers head man Greg Schiano took over after not getting the Penn State job. He made the Scarlet Knights semi-relevant; can he buck the trend of college coaches not faring well in the pros and get the Bucs on the right track? It probably won't happen this season.

NFC WEST

(1) San Francisco: The 49ers rode a stout defense and shockingly efficient quarterbacking from Alex Smith to the NFC title game before losing in overtime. One wonders if that was the best Smith is capable of. One also wonders what Randy Moss has left and if Mario Manningham will actually make a difference. The D remains one of the league's best and will likely carry this team again.

Seattle: Pete Carroll is very quietly building something promising here, but naming rookie Russell Wilson the starting quarterback after paying Matt Flynn decent money is a bit of a gamble despite how well Wilson played in the preseason. Marshawn Lynch returns as the workhorse back. They reached in the first round for pass-rusher Bruce Irvin, but they did need a pass rusher and defense has always been Carroll's calling card.

Arizona: Could Ken Whisenhunt be on the hot seat? After the improbable Super Bowl run he made with mostly Dennis Green's players, the Cardinals have reverted to their usual role as the NFL's doormat as the quarterback situation has descended into unwatchable chaos. The offensive line situation hasn't helped matters, either. There's good talent here in spots, but the Cardinals are in big trouble if they can't establish a quarterback.

St. Louis: Veteran head coach Jeff Fisher comes in to revive a team that's been floundering for the last few years. Trading out of No. 2 overall yielded much-needed extra draft picks to fix gaping holes in the secondary and at receiver, even though they might not have gotten the players they really wanted. Stephen Jackson remains a stalwart on offense, but the rest of that side of the ball needs time to grow together.