AFC EAST
(1) New England: I watched about 50 seconds of the Super Bowl this year because the matchup sickened me and I already knew the outcome, as last year's Pats matched up horribly with last year's Giants, especially defensively. But they spent draft week trading up for once and adding some badly needed blue-chip defensive players. Bad division + easy schedule = best record in the league.
Buffalo: Hey, somebody has to finish second. Of course, "second" could be 6-10. But I have a feeling it won't be. The Bills stunned everyone by getting Mario Williams to come aboard from salary cap-stressed Houston, adding one of the game's top pass rushers to what's becoming an interesting defense. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick got paid, then promptly fell off the map, turning into an interception machine before getting hurt. That can't happen again if the Bills want to have any hope of respectability.
N.Y. Jets: Rex Ryan has fully formed into a perfect clone of his father as a head coach: great with defense, nearly clueless on offense. Their two best offensive players are their center and left tackle. Their biggest offseason move was trading for a backup quarterback who may never actually become a viable NFL quarterback. Fortunately, they still have Darrelle Revis and David Harris. Expect many 10-7 games this season.
Miami: The good news is Reggie Bush finally ran for 1,000 yards. That's... really about it. I think they've made three mistakes already with rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill: drafting him, naming him the Week 1 starter, and trading away his best receiving option in Brandon Marshall (though there were other reasons for that.) And will they ever win a home game again?
AFC SOUTH
(2) Houston: Am I crazy for thinking the Texans would have at least reached the Super Bowl last year with a healthy Matt Schaub? I don't think I am. They lost some big names on defense which may or may not hurt, and even if star back Arian Foster can't stay healthy, backup Ben Tate has more than proven himself. Expect another division title, but a deep playoff run may be a little more difficult.
Tennessee: It's Jake Locker time as the second-year quarterback and somewhat surprising first-round pick takes over. Locker played well at times when needed last season and will inherit an underrated receiving corps and a strong offensive line. They'll need Chris Johnson to have a bounce-back season, but a defense that's in transition probably isn't good enough to make the Titans a contender.
Indianapolis: The Colts kept more veterans around (Reggie Wayne, Robert Mathis) than I thought they would, meaning No. 1 overall pick Andrew Luck won't have to completely go it alone. Luck's preseason play has some calling the Colts a dark horse division contender (and this division isn't great), but I'm not willing to go that far. However, they could play spoiler -- their December schedule features Houston twice, Tennessee, Detroit and Kansas City.
Jacksonville: Blaine Gabbert spent most of last season running around like a chicken with its head cut off. Maurice Jones-Drew just showed up to camp after holding out and not getting paid. Top pick Justin Blackmon got arrested for DWI before he even signed his contract. At least they didn't get blacked out last season?
AFC NORTH
(3) Baltimore: Joe Flacco outplayed Tom Brady in the AFC title game and the Ravens were horribly unlucky to lose. This team's developing more of an offensive identity as Ray Rice has become one of the league's best backs. The defense does remain formidable, if a little long in the tooth at key spots, though not having Terrell Suggs will hurt.
(5) Pittsburgh: I gave the Ravens the edge in the division because the Steelers are missing a couple of key pieces -- they may have lost top pick David DeCastro for the season and starting running back Rashard Mendenhall will miss the beginning of the season while recovering from wrecking his knee at the end of the last one. It was a close call, as it always is between these two, but don't expect the Steelers to drop off.
Cincinnati: The Bengals found the combination to the lock on the back door and got into the playoffs on the strength of their still mostly unknown defense and the Andy Dalton-A.J. Green combination, which exceeded expectations as rookies and has the potential to be something great. But the schedule gets a lot tougher in 2012, which may leave the Bengals the odd team out in the end.
Cleveland: The Browns gave up on Colt McCoy quickly, drafting 28-year-old Brandon Weeden late in the first round and giving him the starting quarterback job. The problem is the same as it's been since the franchise was brought back -- they're short on talent (especially on offense; rookie Trent Richardson can't do it alone) and have done very few things right.
AFC WEST
(4) San Diego: This division was the most difficult to pick since there's no one team that stands out and they all have potentially fatal flaws, and the Chargers may have the biggest one standing on their sideline. Philip Rivers had a down year but remains one of the league's best quarterbacks, and he may make the difference in what I expect to be a very tight divisional race.
(6) Oakland: I know. I KNOW. It doesn't make sense, right? But as I just said, I think anybody can win this division and that it'll be very close. An important factor will be if a full training camp can help Carson Palmer control an offense that has plenty of potential. The concern is the defense. New head coach Dennis Allen has a defensive background, which will be needed because the Raiders couldn't stop the run last season.
Denver: Hey, a Peyton Manning sighting! Manning made Denver his new home in the offseason, but the offense he inherits is a far cry from the units he commanded during his salad days in Indy, with young receivers and a glut of running backs. The defense will put plenty of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but it's what the Broncos' QB has left that matters the most.
Kansas City: The Chiefs lost their two best players (RB Jamaal Charles and S Eric Berry) to injury last year, fired their head coach in midseason, saw their quarterback get hurt, and were somehow still in the division race until the second-to-last week. I think they're the least likely to finish on top, but who knows in this division.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
WILD CARD
AFC: (3) Baltimore over (6) Oakland, (5) Pittsburgh over (4) San Diego
NFC: (4) Philadelphia over (5) Chicago, (3) Atlanta over (6) N.Y. Giants
DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
AFC: (1) New England over (5) Pittsburgh, (3) Baltimore over (2) Houston
NFC: (2) Green Bay over (3) Atlanta, (1) San Francisco over (4) Philadelphia
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
AFC: (3) Baltimore over (1) New England
NFC: (2) Green Bay over (1) San Francisco
SUPER BOWL XLVII
Green Bay over Baltimore
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