Thursday, September 27, 2012

By The Pigskin Of Our Teeth, Week 3: Damaged Collateral

Well, looks like the Giants have come out in "Seriously, Do Not Trifle With Us" mode tonight. Giants fans have spent the last two years talking about Ramses Barden the same way Cowboys fans used to talk about Miles Austin. We're also seeing why the option will never work full-time in the NFL: Defenses are too fast. Even a quarterback as big and athletic as Newton can't run it against NFL-caliber defenders. The Giants are just doing whatever they feel like. This was over long before it ended. (Giants 36, Panthers 7)

Signal Finder: NYJ @ BUF, PHI @ ARZ, PIT @ OAK

"To convey what happened in the fourth quarter in Tennessee would require a dry-erase board, a fully loaded Sharpie, and a mastery of the dark arts." - Sean Fennessey, Grantland. Also, Jim Schwartz has done a lot to help turn the Lions around, but they should have actually gone for it at the end. (Titans 44, Lions 41, OT)

I'm Sorry You Had To See That: Whoa! Tebow on the punt team actually pays off! Why did no one consider this possibility when Rex first mentioned it? Nice pass, Tannehill. This has been an awful game to watch. I mean, it's a slog as it is and the constant slowdowns and stoppages aren't helping matters. And now it's Sanchez's turn to throw a bad interception. Wait, Revis is down? Uh-oh. Oh, no. He wasn't even hit or anything... that's not good. Wait, how did the Jets come back? This game was over and they can't score points. (I had to go to work and the Jets rallied while I was driving.) Hey Dolphins! That NEVER WORKS. And now I have proof. This time it's good! Serves 'em right. (Jets 23, Dolphins 20, OT)



And now, we present the two luckiest teams in the National Football League. The Wildcat is so three years ago, guys. Why hasn't Jackson been returning punts? Anyone? Uncanny. Bounces off DeMeco Ryans's hands right to Michael Floyd for a touchdown. The Eagles' defense can't get a stop on third down and the offensive line can't protect Vick. Their best blocker against the blitz has been McCoy, of all people. I'm having trouble thinking of a receiver in recent years who's burned the Eagles as badly as Fitzgerald has. I don't think even prime Randy Moss torched them on such a consistent basis. It's kind of amazing that the Eagles have played so badly so far and still have a chance to go into halftime down only - oh, look, another turnover. And James Sanders is going to do his James Harrison impression. This thing's actually already over. Take away the fumbled punt return and Johnson had a decent game. Part of me wants them to get Vick out of there for his own personal safety, but they can't put Foles back there because he might actually die. Look, I've seen more than my fair share of bad Eagles losses to the Cardinals, but never like this. They usually happen in Philadelphia, and they're usually not this decisive. (Cardinals 27, Eagles 6)

Remember last week when I asked how the replacements were going to deal with a game with actual bad blood in it? We may be close to finding out. Look, once the quarterback starts to slide, you can't hit him. Simple as that. Also, my "offensive pass interference only gets called once a week" manifesto seems to have been thrown out with the bath water. It occurs to me that the problem with the replacement officials is the same one that I have with current NBA refs: The game's just too fast for them to keep up with. looks closely No, Smith didn't push off on the touchdown catch. I don't even know how he's able to make a touchdown catch with what he's been through in the last 20 or so hours. I see tackling hasn't improved any either - Pitta just ran through two guys there. And the Patriots come right back. This is a good game, guys. There's a reason Brandon Lloyd's played for five teams. It also makes the Welker freezeout make even less sense. Man, between last week and tonight, the Ravens' defense just doesn't look like what it used to be. Deion Branch just got his clock cleaned and still held on. Why go for it there? And why is Rice on the sidelines while you're going for it there? Bizarre. What is going on here? I know McCourty's been bad this game but how is that a penalty? And how is that a penalty? Harbaugh's going berserk. This crowd is united like no other crowd before or since:


And then McCourty gets flagged AGAIN on the final drive! Here we go. It's... is it good? Did that clear the upright? It did? Wow. Kicking is a fickle mistress. Last week, on the road, Tucker hit from 56 and 51 like it was nothing. Here he almost slices a 27-yarder and almost sets off a firestorm.



Someone tell Belichick he can't do that to the officials. Also unnoticed: Flacco outplayed Brady again, at least in the fourth quarter. This time, he got the win to show for it. (Ravens 31, Patriots 30)

Let me finally state this for the record: The Seahawks' new uniforms? AGAINST. Wow, the Seahawks defense is doing to the Packers what the Cardinals did to the Eagles but worse. Eight sacks in one half? That's brutal. Chris Clemons got four of them. No. 31 on Seattle's a safety? That guy's huge. The Packers aren't even trying to run the ball. Good heads-up on spotting that fumble, Jeff Saturday. (Weird to see him not in a Colts uniform, by the way.) One last chance for the Hawks. OH MY GOD. Who caught it? Who's got this thing? Do they both have it? They called it a touchdown! Oh, that's soul crushing. We will need to see this several times and from several angles. The fact that two officials standing right next to each other signaled two different things frightens me. OK, let's see it for a fifth time.

I don't believe what I'm about to say.

They got it wrong.




You'd almost have to script the way this played out: the Sunday night game coming down to a pure judgment call that... well, it looked to me like they got it right, but that put this thing right on the precipice. And one night later, it falls off. Everyone's worst nightmare just came true. Gruden's about to have a heart attack. And yeah, Tate pushed off down in the scrum in the end zone, but that almost never gets called. They still have to kick the extra point, right? Someone needs to come back out onto the field. The Packers are coming back out - I can only assume that they'd have to finish the game on the field in order to file an official protest. It looks like they just picked 11 guys and sent them out there. Cedric Benson's with them and he's a running back. God, if this thing actually gets blocked... nah, it's over, almost 10 minutes after the fact. The underrated lesson for you kids out there: Listen to Tom Jackson. KNOCK IT DOWN! (Seahawks 14, Packers 12)

Unsurprisingly, Twitter was ablaze:



Keep in mind, this guy plays for the Vikings:








John Legend's model girlfriend trolls us:


So would everyone else ever, Mark:










Mike Pereira (former head of NFL officials, now works for FOX) wasn't around Monday night. From his tweets it sounded like he was climbing a mountain on a vision quest or something. Whatever, he was off the grid when all this went down, explaining this exchange:



Then a deal basically got done late Wednesday night. Here's Rachel Nichols again to put a wrap on it:



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Saturday, September 22, 2012

By The Pigskin Of Our Teeth, Week 2: Presence of Malice

The tundra may not be frozen yet, but it is a slog out there. Literally nothing has happened in the first quarter except for an almost-muffed punt. CHICANERY~~~~!!!! Though this will not cancel out the other 4th and 26, it was cool all the same. Bad Jay Cutler is a lot like Bad Eli Manning or Bad Tony Romo, except completely unlikable under any and all circumstances. I don't know if it's the rep he deserves, but it's the rep he's got. Meanwhile, Brandon Marshall's done absolutely nothing tonight and J'Marcus Webb maybe the worst offensive lineman in football not named Wayne Hunter. MORE INTERCEPTIONS.



What's ironic about that is that Cutler and DeAngelo Hall had a similar exchange after Hall picked him off four times, which sums both of them up fairly accurately. (Packers 23, Bears 10)

Signal Finder: BAL @ PHI, NYJ @ PIT, WSH @ STL

PROTECT THE FOOTBALL. THAT GOES FOR BOTH OF YOU. Forget Jason Peters — King Dunlap is making me miss Winston Justice. The Ravens abandoned the hurry-up pretty quickly for whatever reason. This game is getting chippy. Oh, COME ON. Horrible red zone turnovers? Yep, just like last year. (How about Vick practically jumping on Ray Lewis' back to drag him down?) Did Celek just clear Ed Reed? Oh, now Maclin's down? The Eagles are losing players like the Giants apparently are. I'm looking at this reverse angle on the replay and Vick's across the 5, but it's still not a first down. Hey, the Ravens are running the ball again. And then they pass on 3rd and 2? Is Andy calling the Ravens' plays? It doesn't make sense, especially since Rice gashed them a couple of times in the first half. That's on Celek. Or off Celek, as the case may be. The one time the Ravens put a man on him and the ball magically ends up in Reed's hands. Uncanny. 56 and 51 without breaking a sweat? Where'd the Ravens find this kid? Sean Considine's still in the league? The refs have been blowing ball spots all game long. Additionally, offensive holding is apparently now 15 yards. Wait... why are we doing the two-minute warning again? Nobody stopped the clock, did they?

 

I'm glad I was in the car when the not-even-close-to-a-fumble happened, because somebody would have had to call the cops if that didn't get overturned. It also wasn't intentional grounding because Vick was clearly hit as he threw, changing the direction of the ball. (How they got that part right is one of the great unsolved mysteries of the universe.) And touchdown! This team's going to take 10 years off my life. Cue the Ravens whining about the refs in 3... 2... 1... (Eagles 24, Ravens 23)

Giants fans probably feel the same way Eagles fans felt last week. You'll take it, but you're not happy about it. (Giants 41, Buccaneers 34)

Meanwhile, this happened:




So let's see... the Bills did to the Chiefs what the Jets did to them last week. That means the Saints are due to catch another beatdown. The way their defense has played so far, that's entirely possible. (Panthers 35, Saints 27; Bills 35, Chiefs 17)

Oh, God, the last minute or so of Cardinals-Patriots was a master class in incompetence, and unusually, most of it was committed by the Patriots. First there's the fumble itself, with Ryan Williams holding the ball like an egg and watching it fly out of his hands like it hatched. Then Danny Woodhead races into the end zone untouched when you'd think Belichick would have told them to go down at the 2-yard line or so if someone got free, just to keep the clock moving and keep the ball out of the Cardinals' hands. Then there's the penalty that nullifies the whole thing anyway. Then the Pats don't even try to go for the end zone after the false start penalty. THEN Gostkowski misses the game-winner with a kick as horrible as he's ever attempted. You knew off his foot that was no good. (Cardinals 20, Patriots 18)

Cortland Finnegan is the NFL's equivalent of Sean Avery: a moderately talented player whose main talent is getting under your skin and pissing you off. Josh Morgan fell for it and that's why the Redskins are looking at a 66-yard field goal to send this game into overtime. Well, that and the fact that they let Danny Amendola catch 15 passes. This has no shot. None whatsoever. (Rams 31, Redskins 28)

It continues! Seriously, where was all this Jets offensive productivity in the preseason? And with no Harrison or Polamalu for the Steelers, this could get interesting if they can maintain it. It's a good thing the Steelers have become a passing team because they can't run the ball at all. Uh-oh... Jets are starting to slow down offensively. Nobody can get open downfield and there are no running lanes.





I'M MIKE WALLACE. Who says I can only run go routes? Who says I can't make tough catches? Wait, what? Hang on, WHAT? Pass WHAT?! Where?!? Oh, that's awful. That's just ridiculously bad. (Steelers 27, Jets 10)

Someone call the authorities — Peyton Manning's been kidnapped and replaced with Eli. This game may not end until midnight. Peyton's deep ball just doesn't seem to be there. OK, Ray Edwards should have been ejected for that. That's the rule. That should have been the first thing the league told these guys: If a player touches you, throw him out of the game. This has gone off the rails. God forbid Edwards sacks Peyton now and knocks him out — John Fox will rightfully go ballistic. This game may not end until midnight Wednesday. Seriously, though, how do you completely lose control of a Broncos-Falcons game? What happens at Eagles-Giants? Or Ravens-Steelers? As for the matter at hand, the Broncos are fortunate to still be in something resembling striking distance because Peyton's settled down. Can Peyton now do what Eli did? Against an NFC South team, no less? Ummm... doesn't look like it. (Falcons 27, Broncos 21)
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Friday, September 14, 2012

By The Pigskin Of Our Teeth, Week 1: Requiem For A Wolverine




I mean, Kevin Ogletree shouldn't be getting that wide open against anyone. It just shouldn't happen.  There've been some weird center snaps in this game. A couple of them have gone off to the right and Romo's having to adjust way too much for any Cowboy fan's liking. It's like these teams switched identities: the Cowboys are torching defensive backs and calling crisp plays (though still committing plenty of penalties), and the Giants are dropping passes left and right. This was... unexpected. (Cowboys 24, Giants 17)

Signal Finder: PHI @ CLE, BUF @ NYJ, SF @ GB, SEA @ AZ (end)

The Modells asked the Browns not to do anything to memorialize Art. It's the best decision the Browns have made in the last 20 years. I think Cleveland would have given a better reception to John Elway and LeBron James combined. Also, Elway could probably still play quarterback better than both Vick and Weeden have shown so far, and LeBron would be the Browns' best pass-catching option if he suited up. That got deflected but that's a bad throw by Vick into what's just about double coverage. There are flags all over the place today. Flags and interceptions. This game has also been bad, but it's a different kind of bad than Giants-Cowboys was. This challenge will fail as there's no way to tell if it hit the Eagle player's foot or not, and it looks like he jumped over it. I'm not sure how I feel about showing the replay monitor view live in the stadium. Oh boy. Can't put that one on Vick, though -- Maclin could and should probably have caught it. I should also point out here that I can name maybe two guys on the field defensively for the Browns and Sheldon Brown hasn't played to my knowledge. Really, Vick? REALLY? You know what this is reminding me of? The last time they were in Ohio, the tie against the Bengals. McNabb was completely off in that game, Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph were abusing their receivers, and Andy just kept throwing. I mean, the run/pass ratio has been ridiculous. And right as I say that the Eagles call three straight runs. Make it FOUR straight runs. And after all that, they miss a field goal. I have to say, Trent Richardson is probably the Browns' best skill position player by default and the Eagles defense has held him down. The corners have looked good and DeMeco Ryans has been all over the place. As much as we all implored Vick to learn to slide more, that's not the time for it -- he has to sell out there to try to keep the chains moving. If he'd lost the fumble there I wouldn't have been able to blame him for that. (It's not like I don't have four other reasons.) Celek! HARBOUR!

Celebrity NFL Tweet of the Week (from Angel Booth):



Let's get out of here before they change their minds. (Eagles 17, Browns 16)

Nice start, rook. You were the only one. (Redskins 40, Saints 32)

Look, if you've been a regular reader of these pieces, you know I'm not That Guy when it comes to talking about officiating. Or, at the very least, I make a concerted effort not to be. But the illegal block in the back on a kick return happens on every kick return. And it almost always gets called. How do you miss it when it happens twice on the same return? Also, how bad did the Packers look? (49ers 30, Packers 22)

More importantly, when you don't know the time out rules at the end of a game, at best it's an embarrassment to yourself. At worst you could cost someone a victory. Also, I was unaware Chris Webber was a replacement official. You'd think SportsCenter would've had that. (Cardinals 20, Seahawks 16)

This Week It Sucks To Be: The Raiders' backup long snapper. I mean, relatively speaking, being a backup long snapper isn't a great gig to start with, but when you end up blowing three snaps on Monday Night Football... ah, jeez. Hey, the Chargers won in September. Down is up, left is right. (Chargers 22, Raiders 14)

Honorable mention to whoever on the Rams was responsible for Kevin Smith in pass coverage. (Lions 27, Rams 26)
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Sunday, September 9, 2012

Fearful Forecast 2012: AFC

AFC EAST

 (1) New England: I watched about 50 seconds of the Super Bowl this year because the matchup sickened me and I already knew the outcome, as last year's Pats matched up horribly with last year's Giants, especially defensively. But they spent draft week trading up for once and adding some badly needed blue-chip defensive players. Bad division + easy schedule = best record in the league.

Buffalo: Hey, somebody has to finish second. Of course, "second" could be 6-10. But I have a feeling it won't be. The Bills stunned everyone by getting Mario Williams to come aboard from salary cap-stressed Houston, adding one of the game's top pass rushers to what's becoming an interesting defense. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick got paid, then promptly fell off the map, turning into an interception machine before getting hurt. That can't happen again if the Bills want to have any hope of respectability.

N.Y. Jets: Rex Ryan has fully formed into a perfect clone of his father as a head coach: great with defense, nearly clueless on offense. Their two best offensive players are their center and left tackle. Their biggest offseason move was trading for a backup quarterback who may never actually become a viable NFL quarterback. Fortunately, they still have Darrelle Revis and David Harris. Expect many 10-7 games this season.

Miami: The good news is Reggie Bush finally ran for 1,000 yards. That's... really about it. I think they've made three mistakes already with rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill: drafting him, naming him the Week 1 starter, and trading away his best receiving option in Brandon Marshall (though there were other reasons for that.) And will they ever win a home game again?

AFC SOUTH

 (2) Houston: Am I crazy for thinking the Texans would have at least reached the Super Bowl last year with a healthy Matt Schaub? I don't think I am. They lost some big names on defense which may or may not hurt, and even if star back Arian Foster can't stay healthy, backup Ben Tate has more than proven himself. Expect another division title, but a deep playoff run may be a little more difficult.

Tennessee: It's Jake Locker time as the second-year quarterback and somewhat surprising first-round pick takes over. Locker played well at times when needed last season and will inherit an underrated receiving corps and a strong offensive line. They'll need Chris Johnson to have a bounce-back season, but a defense that's in transition probably isn't good enough to make the Titans a contender.

Indianapolis: The Colts kept more veterans around (Reggie Wayne, Robert Mathis) than I thought they would, meaning No. 1 overall pick Andrew Luck won't have to completely go it alone. Luck's preseason play has some calling the Colts a dark horse division contender (and this division isn't great), but I'm not willing to go that far. However, they could play spoiler -- their December schedule features Houston twice, Tennessee, Detroit and Kansas City.

 Jacksonville: Blaine Gabbert spent most of last season running around like a chicken with its head cut off. Maurice Jones-Drew just showed up to camp after holding out and not getting paid. Top pick Justin Blackmon got arrested for DWI before he even signed his contract. At least they didn't get blacked out last season?

AFC NORTH

 (3) Baltimore: Joe Flacco outplayed Tom Brady in the AFC title game and the Ravens were horribly unlucky to lose. This team's developing more of an offensive identity as Ray Rice has become one of the league's best backs. The defense does remain formidable, if a little long in the tooth at key spots, though not having Terrell Suggs will hurt.

(5) Pittsburgh: I gave the Ravens the edge in the division because the Steelers are missing a couple of key pieces -- they may have lost top pick David DeCastro for the season and starting running back Rashard Mendenhall will miss the beginning of the season while recovering from wrecking his knee at the end of the last one. It was a close call, as it always is between these two, but don't expect the Steelers to drop off.

Cincinnati: The Bengals found the combination to the lock on the back door and got into the playoffs on the strength of their still mostly unknown defense and the Andy Dalton-A.J. Green combination, which exceeded expectations as rookies and has the potential to be something great. But the schedule gets a lot tougher in 2012, which may leave the Bengals the odd team out in the end.

Cleveland: The Browns gave up on Colt McCoy quickly, drafting 28-year-old Brandon Weeden late in the first round and giving him the starting quarterback job. The problem is the same as it's been since the franchise was brought back -- they're short on talent (especially on offense; rookie Trent Richardson can't do it alone) and have done very few things right.

 AFC WEST

 (4) San Diego: This division was the most difficult to pick since there's no one team that stands out and they all have potentially fatal flaws, and the Chargers may have the biggest one standing on their sideline. Philip Rivers had a down year but remains one of the league's best quarterbacks, and he may make the difference in what I expect to be a very tight divisional race.

(6) Oakland: I know. I KNOW. It doesn't make sense, right? But as I just said, I think anybody can win this division and that it'll be very close. An important factor will be if a full training camp can help Carson Palmer control an offense that has plenty of potential. The concern is the defense. New head coach Dennis Allen has a defensive background, which will be needed because the Raiders couldn't stop the run last season.

Denver: Hey, a Peyton Manning sighting! Manning made Denver his new home in the offseason, but the offense he inherits is a far cry from the units he commanded during his salad days in Indy, with young receivers and a glut of running backs. The defense will put plenty of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but it's what the Broncos' QB has left that matters the most.

Kansas City: The Chiefs lost their two best players (RB Jamaal Charles and S Eric Berry) to injury last year, fired their head coach in midseason, saw their quarterback get hurt, and were somehow still in the division race until the second-to-last week. I think they're the least likely to finish on top, but who knows in this division.

PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

WILD CARD
AFC: (3) Baltimore over (6) Oakland, (5) Pittsburgh over (4) San Diego
NFC: (4) Philadelphia over (5) Chicago, (3) Atlanta over (6) N.Y. Giants

DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
AFC: (1) New England over (5) Pittsburgh, (3) Baltimore over (2) Houston
NFC: (2) Green Bay over (3) Atlanta, (1) San Francisco over (4) Philadelphia

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
AFC: (3) Baltimore over (1) New England
NFC: (2) Green Bay over (1) San Francisco

SUPER BOWL XLVII
Green Bay over Baltimore
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Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Fearful Forecast 2012: NFC

Thought this was dead, didn't you? Yeah, so did I. Fell behind and never caught up. But I learned a few things from last year's aborted effort:

1. Don't be away from home on a weekend. This normally isn't an issue, but Week 3 was my 15-year college reunion and I spent that Sunday at my parents' house, so I couldn't write up my notes during the games and my brain only holds so much material at once.

2. Stick to a schedule. This'll be easier with Thursday night games now every week, so posts will be up on Wednesdays.

Let's run this back.

NFC EAST

 (4) Philadelphia: Go back to the beginning of last season and think of all the things that went wrong for the Eagles last year. The defensive coordinator spent most of the season in over his head. DeSean Jackson spent the whole season moping over his contract. Most of the big-ticket signings didn't pan out. Michael Vick didn't come close to repeating his 2010 season and missed games with injuries. They hosted the Arizona Cardinals. Now consider that all of those things happened and they still went 8-8 in what was a bad year for the division as a whole, and were a blown fourth-quarter lead away from a division title. That said, miss the playoffs again and it's the end for Reid and Vick.

(6) N.Y. Giants: The reigning champions are really only the reigning champions because of Eli Manning, who carried a team that struggled to run the ball and stop opponents for most of the season. Then they followed an eerily familiar path to their second title in four years. So why aren't they my division champs? 'Cause the Eagles kind of have their number. (Also, fun fact: Seven of the last year's division champions were different from the year before.)

Dallas: I'm not sure how much more time the main nucleus of this team (Romo, Witten, Ware, Ratliff) has left. Dez Bryant's effectively on house arrest. And legitimate questions are resurfacing on Jason Garrett as a head coach. Another new starting running back and much-needed upgrades at cornerback will help, but I'm just not sure how much. Plus, the Giants kind of have their number.

Washington: Mike Shanahan's betting the farm -- literally -- on rookie QB Robert Griffin III, who seems to have his head on straight and who I will not enjoy rooting against for the next decade. But they're relying on a lot of unproven guys to suddenly prove themselves and I don't know that all of them will come through. Shanahan bought himself some more time with RGIII, but this team needs to turn the corner soon.

NFC NORTH

 (2) Green Bay: Last year's prohibitive Super Bowl favorites were done in by a bad playoff performance that got blamed on a defense that played below its talent level. (Losing Cullen Jenkins arguably hurt them more than getting him helped the Eagles.) So they did the smart thing and went and got more players. The offense? Don't worry about the offense.

 (5) Chicago: Jay Cutler finally has a top receiving target in former Broncos teammate Brandon Marshall, if the latter can stay out of trouble and the offensive line can keep the former upright. Michael Bush joins Matt Forte in the backfield to keep defenses honest. They'll need improved play from the back end of their defense, but their special teams are second to none -- you know about Devin Hester, but Robbie Gould may actually be the best kicker in the league.

Detroit: The Lions finally broke out of their decades-long malaise, going 10-6 and making the playoffs on the strength of a mostly-healthy Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, who's simply one of the game's best players. They also developed a nasty streak that rubbed some opposing players -- and coaches -- the wrong way and hurt them at times. I don't think they improved enough to put them ahead of the Bears, though.

Minnesota: It's no fun being the fourth team in a three-team division. It's even less fun when your best offensive player (Adrian Peterson) is coming back from blowing his knee out and you don't have anyone else with experience at being a good offensive NFL player. This is Year 2 of a rebuilding project and don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

NFC SOUTH

 (3) Atlanta: Quarterback Matt Ryan and head coach Mike Smith have a lot of questions to answer, and this may be their best chance to answer them in the affirmative. Their new pass-oriented offense should make receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones even more dangerous, and this division hasn't had a repeat winner since ever. The addition of cornerback Asante Samuel worries me, though... we've all seen what happens to Eagles when they become ex-Eagles.

 New Orleans: The only good thing that's happened to the Saints since the end of last season was Drew Brees' new contract and even that took entirely too long to resolve. I can't be the only one who thinks that the fallout from the bounty scandal will have an adverse effect on this team. Of course, there's still enough left, especially on offense, for them to still be dangerous, and the "us against the world" mentality may never be in purer form than it will be here.

Carolina: I thoiught every quarterback drafted in the first round last year was terribly overdrafted, including No. 1 overall pick Cam Newton, who exceeded my expectations throwing to Steve Smith 1.0 and basically nobody else. The offensive line is an underrated strength, but there just isn't enough talent here yet to contend with the top two teams.

Tampa Bay: After scrapping their way to 10 wins two years ago, the Bucs crashed last season as quarterback Josh Freeman regressed badly. In the most surprising coaching hire of the offseason, former Rutgers head man Greg Schiano took over after not getting the Penn State job. He made the Scarlet Knights semi-relevant; can he buck the trend of college coaches not faring well in the pros and get the Bucs on the right track? It probably won't happen this season.

NFC WEST

 (1) San Francisco: The 49ers rode a stout defense and shockingly efficient quarterbacking from Alex Smith to the NFC title game before losing in overtime. One wonders if that was the best Smith is capable of. One also wonders what Randy Moss has left and if Mario Manningham will actually make a difference. The D remains one of the league's best and will likely carry this team again.

Seattle: Pete Carroll is very quietly building something promising here, but naming rookie Russell Wilson the starting quarterback after paying Matt Flynn decent money is a bit of a gamble despite how well Wilson played in the preseason. Marshawn Lynch returns as the workhorse back. They reached in the first round for pass-rusher Bruce Irvin, but they did need a pass rusher and defense has always been Carroll's calling card.

 Arizona: Could Ken Whisenhunt be on the hot seat? After the improbable Super Bowl run he made with mostly Dennis Green's players, the Cardinals have reverted to their usual role as the NFL's doormat as the quarterback situation has descended into unwatchable chaos. The offensive line situation hasn't helped matters, either. There's good talent here in spots, but the Cardinals are in big trouble if they can't establish a quarterback.

St. Louis: Veteran head coach Jeff Fisher comes in to revive a team that's been floundering for the last few years. Trading out of No. 2 overall yielded much-needed extra draft picks to fix gaping holes in the secondary and at receiver, even though they might not have gotten the players they really wanted. Stephen Jackson remains a stalwart on offense, but the rest of that side of the ball needs time to grow together.
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