NFC
EAST
(1) Dallas - On paper, the Cowboys are probably the best team in the conference. But games aren't played on paper, especially not playoff games. And there are still enough potential time bombs that could cause things to go horribly wrong.
(5) N.Y. Giants - I'm not as down on these guys as everybody else is, and not just because they're the defending champions.
(6) Philadelphia - Friends, I don't remember the last time I've ever been so uncertain about this team. The defense has gotten dramatically younger over the past two years, and the hope is that Samuel can get some interceptions. It's a critical year for McNabb and everybody knows it - if he gets hurt again, say hello to Kevin Kolb.
Washington - I don't see it. Even with Jason Taylor and his dancing feet, they don't do anything better than any of the other teams in the division... including finishing games.
CENTRAL
(4) Green Bay - They've got a new quarterback. That's pretty big news. But it's the same group that surprised people and got to the NFC title game last year, and they seem to have accepted Aaron Rodgers. Is he produces, I like the Packers in a two-team division...
Minnesota - ...the other team being the Vikings. So much hinges on Tarvaris Jackson it isn't funny. If he becomes what the Vikings obviously think he can become, they could do big things.
Detroit - They're probably not as good as they started out last year.
Chicago - What the hell is going on here. They finally go with, IMO, the right quarterback among the ones they have, but when Devin Hester is your best offensive player, you've got... issues.
SOUTH
(2) New Orleans - They waited a year too late to make some moves to improve their defense, but they can score points with anybody. Plus, this division seems to have a different winner every year.
Carolina - Delhomme's arm looked OK when he faced the Eagles in that weird preseason game that got delayed by lightning for an hour. This is a team that will have to dip into its past - Delhomme, Peppers, and the returning Muhsin Muhammad will need to rediscover some of their old form. If they can, the Panthers could sneak into the playoffs.
Tampa Bay - They just don't excite me, y'know? The Bucs may be the most mediocre team in the league. I think last year's division title bought Gruden some time.
Atlanta - The Falcons are starting over. Again.
WEST
(3) Seattle - Apparently it takes three guys to replace Shaun Alexander. Even though they're banged up all over the offense in preseason, they're still the best of a seriously bad lot.
Arizona - They were 8-8 last year? Really? Huh. Look, I agree that Warner gives them a better chance to win right now than Leinart does. Still, the same standard holds: until they prove otherwise, they're still the Arizona Cardinals.
St. Louis - The Rams got ripped to shreds - literally - by injuries last season. They're also getting older in some important spots.
San Francisco - J.T. O'Sullivan? Really? Really? Daunte Culpepper might have a point.
AFC
EAST
(1) New England - Forget Spygate. Forget Brady's foot. The Pats will never admit it publicly, but they are going to be angry and out for blood after their season ended the way it did. I fear for the rest of the league. Yes, again.
N.Y. Jets - They have a new quarterback; perhaps you've heard of him. And a lot of new other things. They're going for it; it's just unfortunate for them that they're in the AFC.
Miami - No, really. Chad Pennington remains the third-best QB in this division, but he's now the best quarterback on his new team. Don't forget the Dolphins lost more than their fair share of close games last year.
Buffalo - You got faith in Trent Edwards? I don't. Not yet, anyway. I see them treading water, both American and Canadian.
NORTH
(4) Pittsburgh - Their schedule is absolutely brutal.
(6) Cleveland - Last year's biggest surprise team, as usual, enters this year with higher expectations. I don't know how much I believe in the Browns' defense yet.
Baltimore - Things can't get worse, you know? Even with a rookie quarterback who's starting almost by default.
Cincinnati - I see this ending very, very badly. A team known for its offense suddenly has a lot of question marks (Are the receivers healthy? Was Chris Perry not overrated coming out of college?), their defense actually got worse, and the Chris Henry thing might drive Marvin Lewis to drink.
SOUTH
(3) Indianapolis - Can they stay healthy? That's the big question for a team that's been there before and is good enough to get back.
(5) Jacksonville - The jaguars made moves to improve at receiver, and they'll need that extra dimension to get over the hump, because they've got everything else.
Houston - They'll break .500. Playoffs? Maybe next year. The best thing that could happen to the Texans is Steve Slaton getting some run at running back, because who knows what Ahman Green's got left.
Tennessee - They were a playoff team last yeat, but Vince Young still needs help.
WEST
(2) San Diego - Shawne Merriman's making a colossal mistake. Besides that, this is a team that got close last year and is good enough to go all the way as long as Rivers keeps improving.
Denver - You get the feeling that Mike Shanahan would have to shoot Pat Bowlen in the face to get fired?
Oakland - One year and Lane Kiffin is walking on eggshells. On the actual field, the Raiders did some odd things in the offseason, and I'm not sure they're all that much better for it.
Kansas City - There's a youth movement afoot for the Chiefs, and expectations are low.
WILD CARD:
Philadelphia over Seattle, N.Y. Giants over Green Bay
Indianapolis over Cleveland, Jacksonville over Pittsburgh
DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS:
Dallas over Philadelphia; New Orleans over N.Y. Giants
New England over Jacksonville, Indianapolis over San Diego
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP
New Orleans over Dallas
New England over Indianapolis
SUPER BOWL... 43?
New England over New Orleans
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