Fearful Forecast 2011

FEARFUL FORECAST 2011


NFC EAST

(2) Philadelphia — The talk of the league after exceeding expectations last year, followed by an offseason spending blitz designed to fix some large holes in the defense, including becoming the somewhat surprising winner of the Nnamdi Asomugah sweepstakes. They've also hitched their wagon to Michael Vick for the foreseeable future, a development that absolutely no one would have predicted three years ago. But offensive line questions abound and may be the only thing holding them back if those questions don't get answered.

Dallas — In the recent past, the Cowboys have managed to choke on their own Super Bowl aspirations, and the year they won the division and a playoff game was the year that pundits had grown tired of their chronic underachieving. Which makes them hard to judge, since those expectations have been somewhat tempered, but they did play better when Jason Garrett took over midseason.

N.Y. Giants — Another late-season collapse ruined another season, yet Tom Coughlin gets an extension. Then they lost several key players through release (they turned over their offensive line but arguably made it worse), departure (they'll miss Steve Smith 2.0 more than everyone thinks) or disgruntlement  (Oh, Osi) and saw several others get hurt in the preseason. Eli still gives them a fighting chance, especially if he cuts down on the turnovers, but I'm not optimistic and I worry about their collective psyche.

Washington — Arguably their biggest win of the year was getting an actual tangible asset for Albert Haynesworth, and ceding the title of "D.C.'s Most Overpaid Professional Athlete" to Jayson Werth in the process. This team was in shambles at the end of last season, with too many holes to fill in an abbreviated offseason, though they did avoid the monumentally stupid moves they were known for making under Daniel Snyder's ownership. Until they named Rex Grossman the starting QB, that is.

NFC NORTH


(1) Green Bay —The Packers were cut to pieces by injuries last season and still won the Super Bowl, a testament to how much talent they still had. With most of those players coming back, making the depth charts even deeper, there's little reason to expect any significant dropoff. A trip back to the Super Bowl is highly likely.

(5) Detroit — A trendy playoff pick, and for good reason: The Lions seem to finally have a plan and played better at the end of last season, winning a truly ugly game over the Packers and sending another longtime foe to the retirement home for good. Now if they can just keep Matthew Stafford upright...

Chicago — The Bears improved the least of the NFC North teams, as they seemed to follow the route of bringing in guys nobody else wanted because they aren't any good anymore (Roy Williams, Marion Barber III) or never were (Vernon Gholston). Plus, Jay Cutler's head is in question again after the NFC title game where he may or may not have begged off with a knee injury, and the offensive line, while improved over the second half of last season, remains a work in progress.

Minnesota — But let's say this: Fourth could be 8-8. The collapses of Brett Favre and the Metrodome, respectively, overshadowed the fact that pretty much every Viking of significance had a worse 2010 than 2009. Interestingly, new quarterback Donovan McNabb also fits into this category, and he'll want to prove he still has plenty left in his tank.

NFC SOUTH


(3) New Orleans — Made history in the bad way at the end of the season by losing to the under-.500 Seahawks in the playoffs. (The Madden Curse works in mysterious ways.) The Saints' offense will ensure they're always dangerous, but they'll need the defense to return to its Super Bowl-winning form.

(6) Atlanta — Still licking their wounds after being eviscerated by the Packers in the playoffs, the Falcons made a big draft-day move to get rookie receiver Julio Jones, putting a lot on his shoulders. Free agent DE Ray Edwards will help the pass rush, but given the high-octane offenses they'll face this season, they'll also need their cornerbacks to prove last year wasn't a fluke.

Tampa Bay — Pundits were concerned that the Bucs, who went a shocking 10-6 but missed the playoffs last year, didn't ride the momentum and use their cap room to upgrade at some weak positions. They may take a step back because the two teams above them are still better than them (and, like the Chiefs, they no longer have the element of surprise), but this is a young squad that looks like it's getting better.

Carolina — Ron Rivera gets his first shot at a head coaching job four years after his name was the hottest one out there. Fittingly, he has a rookie, No. 1 overall pick Cam Newton, at quarterback. The Panthers did well to keep the few good players they have in the fold, giving them something to rebuild around. But can Newton succeed at this level?

NFC WEST


(4) St. Louis — Basically by default. Quarterback Sam Bradford was better than some people expected last year, Steven Jackson had another solid season, and Danny Amendola somehow caught 85 passes, having arguably the most unremarkable "very good year" in the history of the sport. Late last year this division seemed to become theirs to lose, and this year there's no reason to think they won't actually win it.

Arizona — The Cardinals gave up a lot to get Kevin Kolb and his seven career starts, but they had to do something after running Derek Anderson, Max Hall and John Skelton out there last season (they'd have gotten equal production out of Louie Anderson, Monty Hall and Red Skelton). Of bigger worry might be the rest of their offense, as Larry Fitzgerald will be facing the same triple-teams that Steve Smith 1.0 is.

San Francisco — The Alex Smith era improbably continues as the Jim Harbaugh one begins
In a nice touch, the 49ers visit Jim's brother John's Baltimore Ravens on Thanksgiving night.

Seattle — After their surprising, and, some would say, blasphemous playoff appearance last year, the Seahawks seemed to have designs on legitimizing themselves, bringing in ex-Vikings WR Sidney Rice and underrated tight end Zach Miller. Or at least you would have thought that had they not also signed QB Tarvaris Jackson and named him the starter. Now it seems they have designs on Andrew Luck.

AFC EAST

(2) New England — Chad Ochocinco? Albert Haynesworth? It's not like Bill Belichick hasn't taken on other teams' problem children before, but you can legitimately wonder how much Chad has left and if Haynesworth is in any kind of shape to be the dominant force he has been at times. Also, it's unlikely Tom Brady will have the same kind of season he had last year... but it's not impossible. Though it might actually be for the best that he doesn't, as that would mean that the Pats have the balance back that helped them win three Super Bowls last decade.

(6) N.Y. Jets — Another year, another conference title game loss. It seems to me that the Jets are going to have to figure out how to win the division if they want to get to the Super Bowl. Replacing Braylon Edwards with Plaxico Burress was eh. It's the nonexistent pass rush that should concern Jets fans — as good as Darrelle Revis is, he can still only cover one man at a time.

Buffalo — The best hope for Bills fans is that Harvard man Ryan Fitzpatrick throws for over 3,000 yards again. Because the only thing worse than being bad is being boring on top of it, and the Bills haven't been a good team for a decade and that may not change anytime soon.

Miami — Let's see: The owner doesn't want the coach. The coach doesn't want the quarterback. How is this a good situation again? It's not like there isn't talent here (more than the Bills, to be completely honest, and Reggie Bush will help), but this level of dysfunction would make Al Davis either proud or envious. That 11-5 season seems so long ago.


AFC NORTH

(1) Pittsburgh — The Steelers didn't make many significant changes to a team that got to the Super Bowl, and why would you? Although, bad things tend to happen to Super Bowl losers, so we'll see. Still, that trend's been bucked in recent years, and the Steelers are good enough and their schedule easy enough to smash the doomsayers' expectations. Just as long as they don't lead with their helmets.

(5) Baltimore — We could almost put last year's capsule here. Two big question marks: The back of their defense, which still appears to be held together with duct tape and cheap rope at the moment, and Joe Flacco's inability to play well against the Steelers in the playoffs.

Cleveland — Colt McCoy wasn't supposed to play last year. But Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace were... Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace (and also injured) so the rookie stepped in and was surprisingly not horrible given the absolute dearth of talent around him on both sides of the ball. Steps were taken, but they might be playing a waiting game in Cleveland. Plus, the Madden Curse, of all things, is in play. For the Browns. Think about that for a minute. But not any longer because your stomach will explode.

Cincinnati — Mike Brown called Carson Palmer's bluff. Problem is, Carson Palmer wasn't bluffing. So now rookie Andy Dalton takes the reins of what could be not only the worst team in the league, but also — with Chad gone to New England and T.O. just gone — probably the most boring. Coach Marvin Lewis is probably wishing he'd taken the Pitt job.

AFC SOUTH


(4) Houston — Last year was supposed to be the year, and the fact that we've been saying that three years running now is its own set of problems. What stopped the Texans last year was a truly horrible defense, especially against the pass, so they brought Wade Phillips from upstate Dallas to help fix it. But Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and Arian Foster aside, here are the brass tacks: If it doesn't happen this year, it's not happening until Peyton retires.  Speaking OF Peyton...

Indianapolis — ...the lockout really screwed up his neck surgery and recovery as he couldn't work with the team trainers. Of course, it was bad enough that he was coming off neck surgery in the first place. Granted, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark are still around, and they actually spent some money to bring in some defensive help. But make no mistake, Peyton's the key to this whole thing, and if this lingers and Kerry Collins shows he should have stayed retired, this could get ugly fast.

Tennessee — Faced with a choice between Jeff Fisher and Vince Young, owner Bud Adams let them both go, promoting assistant and former Oilers lineman Mike Munchak. Also new is quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, who is here to help rookie Jake Locker get ready. Chris Johnson remains one of the league's premier running backs, but their defense was also bad last year and they didn't do a whole lot to make it better.

Jacksonville — Oh boy. They cut would-be starting quarterback David Garrard five days before the opener to save $8 million, then installed Luke McCown as the starter to keep the seat warm for top pick Blaine Gabbert, who I really think is going to be a bust. Coach Jack del Rio is probably wishing he'd taken the USC job.

AFC WEST


(3) San Diego — I'm willing to accept last year as an aberration caused by several contract disputes involving key players, all of which have been resolved in one fashion or another. Expect Philip Rivers to continue to put up numbers as the Chargers return to the top of the division only to promptly stall out in the playoffs, as is their wont.

Kansas City — Last year's surprise division champions no longer have that element working for them, and quarterback Matt Cassel's rib injury... complicates things. But they found a pass rush and added more speed on offense (WR Steve Breaston may end up being the best signing that nobody talked about), which should be enough to stay respectable.

Oakland — Darren McFadden finally had the season Raiders fans have been waiting for. They swept the division but still only went 8-8, sending loser in football and life Tom Cable out the door and kicking offensive coordinator Hue Jackson upstairs, which also means Jason Campbell won't be looking over his shoulder anymore. But they lost their best defensive player and their second-best offensive player, so they'll be fortunate to tread water.

Denver — Josh McDaniels inherited a mediocre team and was fired from a terrible one, so the Broncos brought in John Fox, fresh off helping botch the Panthers' last two seasons, to pick up the too-few pieces. We like ridiculing the Raiders for their seemingly endless parade of boneheaded personnel moves, but the Broncos' record over the last few years is just as bad. (The 2003 and 2007 drafts alone will make you want to curl up into the fetal position.) Though No. 2 overall pick Von Miller should help a beleaguered defense, it's the beginning of a long road back.

WILD CARD ROUND
NFC: Detroit over St. Louis; New Orleans over Atlanta

AFC: N.Y. Jets over San Diego; Baltimore over Houston



DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
NFC: Philadelphia over New Orleans; Green Bay over Detroit

AFC: Pittsburgh over Baltimore: New England over N.Y. Jets



CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP
NFC: Green Bay over Philadelphia

AFC: New England over Pittsburgh



SUPER BOWL WHATEVER
Green Bay over New England