NFC EAST (If it's possible for all four of these teams to somehow finish 9-7, I wouldn't bet against it)
(3) Dallas - I'm hesitant to do this, because we've seen over the past few years that the Cowboys do not hold up well when faced with high expectations (I firmly believe that they were successful last year in no small part because everyone had gotten fed up and written them off). But even with the questions about the reshuffled offensive line and whether or not Miles Austin was a one-year wonder or not, I'm having trouble making a case against them.
N.Y. Giants - I want to think they can bounce back, because they can't be any worse defensively than they were last year and the last time Tom Coughlin's back was against the wall like it is now, they won the Super Bowl. You have to wonder if they can pull that off again, though.
Washington - There's yet another new sheriff and quarterback in town, but Mike Shanahan and Donovan McNabb come in with better credentials than guys Dan Snyder's used to hiring. However, the ongoing Albert Haynesworth foolishness threatens to bring the whole thing crashing down.
Philadelphia - It's a bad sign when you're trading starting offensive linemen in and out eight days before the season starts, especially when said line is protecting a quarterback who's started all of two games. Add continuing uncertainty on defense and a brutally back-loaded schedule and it could be the longest 8-8 season ever.
NFC NORTH (A palace coup may be coming)
(2) Minnesota - I highly doubt Brett Favre will throw only seven interceptions again, especially with Sidney Rice out for half the season and Percy Harvin's head seemingly ready to explode at any time. I'm also less sure his body will be able to hold up. But Adrian Peterson should be motivated to prove he's over his late-season butterfingers and is still the best running back in the league, and the defense is still good enough to give them the edge.
(5) Green Bay - They're on the cusp and they know it. And especially with "ZOMG BRETT FAVRE PLAYS FOR OUR MOST HATED RIVAL" now out of the way, Aaron Rodgers can get on with the vital business of taking that final step to elite status, which means beating the Vikings. Also, their overall defense needs to improve.
Chicago - The desperate Bears made big splashes in free agency, but it turned out to be a pretty weak crop of free agents. Julius Peppers should give the defense a kick, but will new offensive coordinator Mike Martz's pass-happy offense play in Chicago? And will Jay Cutler and the offensive line let it?
Detroit - The road (back?) to respectability is long, but they've been steadily adding actual NFL players to a roster that hasn't seen many in recent years. Coach Jim Schwatrz and quarterback Matthew Stafford are still growing into their roles.
NFC SOUTH (Now it's time to break a streak)
(1) New Orleans - I'm struggling to remember a defending champ that's been as overlooked going into the following season as the Saints are. Offensively, they've lost little firepower, defensively, they've lost little aggressiveness, and I don't see this group resting on its laurels. There is that little thing about this division never having a repeat winner since its creation, but all streaks end. The only thing that can stop them is the Madden curse.
(6) Atlanta - Case in point. The Falcons have already defied convention by having back-to-back winning seasons for the first time ever. Now they want to get back to the playoffs. A lot of people have them winning the South, but even though they're better - especially in the secondary - they still aren't better than the Saints.
Carolina - There may be no bigger gap at any position on any team in the NFL than the one between Steve Smith and whoever the Panthers' No. 2 receiver actually is. They'll miss Peppers on defense more than they'll care to admit. If there's any chance for success here, they should lean on what's still a top-class running game and not try to let Matt Moore loose... look at how well that worked with Jake Delhomme.
Tampa Bay - Things are much calmer in Tampa than they were at this time last year when assistants were getting fired left and right, and that can only be a good thing for a young team that can't really have any expectations this season. The Buccaneers will still be bad, but it'll be a more hopeful bad than last year was, if that makes any sense.
NFC WEST (The Bay Area actually survives a seismic shift)
(4) San Francisco - Once again, the West is the 49ers' division to lose, but this edition won't remind anyone of the glory days at the Park Formerly Known As Candlestick. On the up side, Alex Smith isn't looking over his shoulder any more and the team seems to be buying what coach Mike Singletary's selling.
Seattle - Me, on the Raiders last year: "Hey, somebody's got to finish second. Of course, 'second' could be 6-10." I worry that "Pete Carroll, head coach" is the NFL's equivalent of "Javier Vazquez, starting pitcher for the New York Yankees." Also, does Deion Branch have Paul Allen on video with goats or breaking into Apple headquarters or something?
Arizona - The Cardinals are replacing retired quarterback Kurt Warner with Derek Anderson, who - and I cannot stress this enough - the Cleveland Browns couldn't get rid of fast enough. The Super Bowl losers' curse appears to have come one year late.
St. Louis - Starting over is hard. Especially when you're starting almost from scratch. Steven Jackson is a welcome sight in the backfield for rookie quarterback Sam Bradford, not to mention the Rams' only hope of not being a complete embarrassment.
AFC EAST (The mood is about to change)
(3) New England - The Patriots hear all the talk coming out of New York and are still licking their own wounds from the playoff spanking the Ravens gave them. Even though I think Bill Belichick slipped a bit last season and their running game leaves a lot to be desired, the Patriots still won the division and shouldn't have any trouble finding motivation. Finding a pass rush? That's another story.
(6) N.Y. Jets - Anybody else feel like they're setting themselves up for a fall here? We saw this before when they made the playoffs in Eric Mangini's first season before tumbling to Earth, and it wasn't as loud back then as it has been with Rex Ryan in charge. Now that the ferry to Revis Island is back in service, the big question here is Mark Sanchez, who didn't have a good preseason by any measure.
Miami - This was a tough call, leaving them out of the playoffs. Chad Henne showed flashes when he was pressed into action (and he probably would have been the starter this season anyway) and Brandon Marshall was a good pickup, but I look at the Dolphins and I feel like there's still something missing. I can't put my finger on it. Still, they'll be in the mix, and expect the AFC wild card race to be every bit the battle royale it was last year.
Buffalo - There's so little to like here that I'm not even sure what to say anymore. I mean, you can count the number of things the Bills have done right in the past decade on one hand. The Chan Gailey hiring inspires little confidence, as does Trent Edwards at quarterback. They won six games last year mostly because of their defense, and their defensive coordinator... now works for the Giants, who know firsthand how much difference a good coordinator makes.
AFC NORTH (Someone left the windows open)
(1) Baltimore - I'm not sure I get the late addition of T.J. Houshwhateverhisnameis but he's yet another guy who should help Joe Flacco not lose his cool in big spots. The Ravens expect to find themselves in a lot of big spots, so that'll be crucial. A concern? The back of their defense, which is being held together with duct tape and cheap rope at the moment.
(5) Cincinnati - Of the rest of the contenders, the Bengals probably have the most balance between run and pass and offense and defense. But all eyes will be focused on the T.O. and Chad Show, and I'm a bit skeptical how much those two no-longer elite receivers really have left.
Pittsburgh - Little Ben finally crossed the line and now Big Ben must pay for his sins. But the Steelers may still have a run in them if they can survive September without him and if their defense doesn't age 10 years overnight. They also need to work on their special teams coverage units, which were laughably bad last season.
Cleveland - The Browns did well to win their final four games last season - and likely saved Eric Mangini's job - in spite of the utter lack of talent on the roster. It isn't much better this season, though Joshua Cribbs did get paid.
AFC SOUTH (There's a mountain you've got to climb)
(2) Indianapolis - The Colts are secretly extremely thankful that Reggie Wayne didn't win the voting for the cover of Madden 11 because I shudder to think what would have happened to him. We've seen things happen to teams thought "too good" to fall victim to the Super Bowl losers' curse, but short of what happened to Tom Brady two years ago happening to Peyton Manning, I can't make that call here.
Tennessee - Chris Johnson set an almost impossibly high bar last season, and he didn't even really start lifting it until Vince Young took over at quarterback and the Titans committed to running the ball. More will be asked of Young this year with defenses focusing on Johnson, and his success will determine what happens to the Titans.
Houston - As if their past inability to beat the Colts wasn't enough, the Texans - who have been the "team of the future" for about five years running - now face issues with their running game and secondary.
Jacksonville - The struggle here remains getting people to care. Coach Jack Del Rio almost fled for USC before deciding to stay, which may not have been a wise move considering he's got to get the Jaguars back on the winning track, if for no other reason than to put people in the seats. I can only assume Maurice Jones-Drew drafted himself No. 1 overall in fantasy.
AFC WEST (Let's not get ahead of ourselves)
(4) San Diego - It's been an offseason of great turmoil in Chargerland as some guys have left and others don't want to come back until they get a lot more money than they're getting right now. But even without Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeil, there's too much talent here to say the Chargers aren't going to win the division. By the way, Philip Rivers is very good.
Oakland - Jason Campbell is an upgrade over JaMarcus Russell. Unfortunately for the Raiders, some of the people reading this would also be an upgrade over JaMarcus Russell. Throw in a running game full of question marks, an underachieving and underdeveloped receiving corps, a good tight end, and a coach in way over his head and Campbell could be wondering if he actually left the Redskins.
Denver - The only constant these days is change. Josh McDaniels has hitched his wagon to the Tim Tebow star, but the wheels probably won't start turning for a couple years until he's ready to play. In the meantime, the most nondescript Broncos team in recent memory will try to keep their now-annual late-season collapse from being too damaging while the rest of the league tries to figure out what, exactly, the grand plan is here.
Kansas City - Let's stop with the idea some pundits have that the Chiefs can make a run at a wild-card spot. Seriously. Just stop. Now that that's out of the way, there is some reason for optimism - people are calling Eric Berry the next Ed Reed, the Jamaal Charles/Thomas Jones running back platoon should be fun, and the reunion of Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel on Todd Haley's staff makes for an intriguing second chance for two guys with something to prove.
WILD CARD
Atlanta over Dallas; Green Bay over San Francisco
Cincinnati over San Diego; New England over N.Y. Jets
DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
New Orleans over Atlanta; Green Bay over Minnesota
Baltimore over Cincinnati; Indianapolis over New England
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
Baltimore over Indianapolis
New Orleans over Green Bay
SUPER BOWL WHATEVER
New Orleans over Baltimore
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