AFC EAST
(1) New England: Wait a second. So after they get gifted a fifth Super Bowl title because the Falcons stopped running the ball, they get Brandin Cooks from the Saints (without giving up Malcolm Butler) and Philip Dorsett from the Colts (who shouldn't have drafted him in the first place)? How do they keep getting so lucky? Is everyone else actually that stupid? Anyway, they might actually repeat...
Miami: Jay Cutler's back, y'all! Dragged out of retirement after Ryan Tannehill's knee blew up or whatever, Cutler steps in for a team that made the playoffs without its regular starting quarterback LAST year. (Are we still sure Tannehill's worth all this trouble?) Everyone's worried about Jay Ajayi becoming a regression candidate.
Buffalo: New coach, same disrespect for quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who the Bills gave big money to two years ago and have seemingly been trying to torpedo ever since. They keep changing things -- Jordan Matthews is in, Sammy Watkins out, for one -- but this is a team that just hasn't figured out what it is.
N.Y. Jets: Brandon Marshall? Gone. David Harris? Gone. Nick Mangold? Gone. Geno Smith? Gone. The Jets are clearly tanking for either Josh Rosen, Mason Randolph or the kid from Wyoming, and only because Sam Darnold isn't draft-eligible. It's gonna be a long year for the green side at MetLife's Eastern Corporate Headquarters.
AFC SOUTH
(4) Tennessee: I'm doing it. I'm backing a Mike Mularkey-coached team. This is the worst division in the league and Marcus Mariota is the real deal if he's healthy. They can run the ball with a resurgent DeMarco Murry and Derrick Henry, and if they can play enough defense...
Houston: If I had any faith that J.J. Watt and Jadaveon Clowney could both stay healthy for a full season at the same time, the Texans would be a lock to win the South. DeShaun Watson was the best quarterback prospect in this year's draft, and if he's not starting by Week 7 (because, seriously? Tom Savage?), something's gone terribly wrong.
Indianapolis: There's just too much uncertainty about when Andrew Luck's going to be ready. And too much damage was done in the Ryan Grigson era to fix in one offseason. New GM Chris Ballard did well to focus on defense, but the offensive line is still a mess, which is bad for whoever's lining up behind center.
Jacksonville: Blake Bortles has gotten worse, and I'm not sure that promoting interim head coach Doug Marrone was really the right move. It certainly wasn't inspired. They drafted the best player available in Leonard Fournette, and they keep adding pieces on defense, but if Bortles can't get right, it won't matter.
AFC NORTH
(2) Pittsburgh: Now that Le'Veon Bell's finally reported, the Steelers' offense returns mostly intact. Rookie T.J. Watt may finally be the man to send James Harrison to the retirement home. But they're still looking for answers at cornerback, and they still haven't figured out how to beat the Patriots in the playoffs.
(6) Cincinnati: The Bengals continue to reinforce their status as the NFL's Home For Wayward Prospects by adding Joe Mixon to their collection of nutcases. A situation this unpredictable (and that's not even referring to Andy Dalton, though it could) only leads to more questions. These guys could go 12-4 or 4-12.
Baltimore: Could John Harbaugh be back on the hot seat? Another playoff miss could be damaging. The Ravens need Joe Flacco to get close to his Super Bowl run form and could also use help from a draft that went heavy on defense.
Cleveland: Is DeShone Kizer the final solution, or just another name on the list of failed Browns quarterbacks? I'm not sure. (And frankly, his Notre Dame pedigree doesn't offer any clarity.) Adding No. 1 overall pick Myles Garrett will help. Subtracting Joe Haden will not. They're still the same old Browns until they prove otherwise.
AFC WEST
(2) Oakland: We may well have been living in a different world if Derek Carr hadn't gotten injured in Week 16, dooming the Raiders' hopes for a Super Bowl run. They're back, healthier, older and hopefully wiser, and should be the biggest threat to the Patriots' AFC supremacy.
(5) Kansas City: How long can Alex Smith hold off Patrick Mahomes II? It's suddenly a question after the rookie Mahomes' dazzling preseason. Andy Reid's Chiefs will be an Andy Reid team again: steady, but maybe not quite good enough to win it all. (Edit: Kareem Hunt announced his presence with authority against the Patriots.)
Denver: Brock Osweiler's back! As the presumptive third-stringer because of a shoulder injury to former top pick Paxton Lynch, who still couldn't beat out Trevor Siemian for the starting quarterback job with a new head coach. If the Broncos can get enough offense to go with one of the league's best defenses, watch out.
Los Angeles Chargers: I know they were this originally, but that just looks wrong. Philip Rivers doesn't really want to be in L.A., both of their first-round picks are either hurt or just stopped being hurt, and they're slumming it in a 27,500-seat soccer stadium where they'll probably get outdrawn by a mediocre U.S. men's national team. How was this a good idea?
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