So I'm doing something a little different this year with these. First, I'm not breaking them up into AFC and NFC like I've done the last few years. Second, I'm bringing back postseason picks. Third, I'm adding confidence ratings to my divisional picks. If you're not familiar with the concept, I'll be assigning a number to how confident I am that I've gotten the order of finish right. Here's an example. My most confident pick will be an 8, and my least confident a 1.
As usual, predicted playoff seeds are in parentheses.
AFC EAST (Confidence Rating: 8)
(1) New England -- Look, I know Tom Brady's going to miss the first four games for maybe possibly using too-soft footballs. But based on talent alone, the worst the Pats should do is go 2-2 before Brady gets back. And then you've got Brady back without four games of wear and tear on him and with a chip on his shoulder. This doesn't end any other way.
(6) N.Y. Jets -- The Jets surprised under first-year head coach Todd Bowles and were a disastrous Ryan Fitzpatrick half away from a playoff spot. After somehow playing to a draw with their quarterback in a high-priced game of chicken, everybody's back to make another go of it.
Buffalo -- Like the Jets, the Bills got unexpected competence from quarterback Tyrod Taylor but fizzled late and missed the playoffs. Rex Ryan gave himself two years to get the Bills back to the postseason. This is Year 2. Is he a man of his word?
Miami -- Ryan Tannehill is well on his way to becoming this decade's Jay Cutler, which probably explains why the rudderless ship that is the Miami Dolphins hired Adam Gase as their new head coach. Gase got one of Cutler's best-ever seasons out of him, and it'll be up to him to find out if Tannehill will ever be anything other than a tease.
AFC NORTH (Confidence Rating: 2)
(3) Pittsburgh -- Like the Patriots, they'll be down some key personnel early (Le'Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant), but, as in recent history, it will all depend on Ben Roethlisberger's ability to maximize whatever he's given to work with. And there's still plenty there -- Antonio Brown may be the game's best receiver, the offensive line is improving, and the front seven on defense is good enough to protect a vulnerable secondary.
(5) Cincinnati -- It's rare that you'll see a team's season end in such a spectacular disaster as the Bengals' did last year. They have the talent and skill on both sides of the ball. But did they learn anything from their playoff flameout?
Baltimore -- A lot of things went wrong for the Ravens last year, and they still seem one step behind. The defense, which has coasted on its reputation for several years now, is showing its age, and even the normally durable Joe Flacco finally succumbed to the injury bug. This feels like a critical season for everyone involved.
Cleveland -- Hue Jackson deserved another shot at being a head coach. Robert Griffin III deserved another shot at being a starting quarterback. They both also deserved a better opportunity than this Superfund site of a franchise. Yes, the perpetually-building Browns are trying one more time. At least the Cavs won.
AFC SOUTH (Confidence Rating: 3)
(4) Houston -- Is Brock Osweiler the quarterback the Texans desperately needed, or is he just the new Matt Flynn? The former Bronco got big money based off of six decent starts, but he does have offensive talent around him. J.J. Watt will, as usual, lead the defense, but the Texans would really like former No. 1 overall pick Jadaveon Clowney to stay healthy and finally produce.
Jacksonville -- Time to find out if Gus Bradley can coach. QB Blake Bortles has already surpassed my Blaine Gabbert-esque expectations, and he's got two good targets in Allens Robinson and Hurns. They also added the draft's best defensive player in Jalen Ramsey to help solve their secondary woes. A division title is possible, but marked improvement is almost a requirement.
Indianapolis -- Andrew Luck's bad year ended up putting a lot of the Colts' problems on display, most surprisingly, the rift between head coach Chuck Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson. With that seemingly patched up, they drafted Ryan Kelly to be their best offensive lineman. But a defense that's already been hit hard by injuries and departures could end up being their undoing.
Tennessee -- I wish the Titans had hired a better coach. They have shaken up the roster dramatically to find players that will help QB Marcus Mariota grow. DeMarco Murray should be rested after his year in Philadelphia, which will be fine when Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry takes over as the featured back in Week 8.
AFC WEST (Confidence Rating: 4)
(2) Oakland -- I'm calling it! Last year proved that the worst was over for the Silver and Black. QB Derek Carr (who's already better than his older brother ever was) seems primed to take the next step, and some smart additions have the Raiders possibly ready to seize what is suddenly a wide-open division.
Kansas City -- Under the steady (if oddly sized) hands of Andy Reid and Alex Smith, the Chiefs finally ended their playoff victory drought last year. They're going to miss star pass rusher Justin Houston for however long he's going to be out, but otherwise not much has changed -- run the ball and play defense is still the (fairly successful) plan here.
Denver -- Peyton Manning rode off into the sunset after winning his second championship. Now, I get that he was below replacement-level last year, but at least he was a known commodity. Trevor Simien is not, and even the league's best defense can only do so much.
San Diego -- After a year-plus of utter foolishness ranging from possible relocation (which is still hanging in the air) to Eric Weddle walking out to the ridiculousness of the Joey Bosa contract dispute, the Chargers are still in San Diego and Philip Rivers is still their quarterback. Protecting him -- which they couldn't do last year -- will be paramount. One has to wonder about all the bad mojo surrounding this franchise, though.
NFC EAST (Confidence Rating: 1)
(4) N.Y. Giants -- I shouldn't do this. I really shouldn't. I thought the Giants should have completely cleaned house after last season instead of just firing Tom Coughlin, and free agent spending sprees haven't gone well for them recently. However, Eli Manning had a good year under newly elevated head coach Ben McAdoo last season, and this division is suddenly so bad again that anyone could win it.
Washington -- Management basically told Kirk Cousins, "Prove it." He's still under .500 as a starter (11-14), and the R's didn't beat a team with a winning record last year on its way to winning the tire fire that was this division. New CB Josh Norman has to avoid not being a bust like so many of this team's other big-ticket free agent signings over the years. Put it this way: The only team in American sports with more to prove in 2016-17 is the Golden State Warriors.
Dallas -- Oh, look, Tony Romo's hurt again, and this time it's his back, which is especially troubling for a man of his age and recent injury history. When's he coming back? And what will he be when he does? It falls to rookie Dak Prescott to hold down the fort, and it's a good thing he has a top-flight offensive line to protect him... because the Cowboys also don't have a defense to speak of. (They will eternally regret taking Ezekiel Elliott over Jalen Ramsey.)
Philadelphia -- Chip Kelly is being disavowed like he was a captured IMF agent. The Eagles' quest to divest themselves of every vestige of his tenure culminated with last weekend's surprise dump-off of Sam Bradford onto the Vikings, putting rookie Carson Wentz under center and ensuring a total rebuild. Any reasonable success they see this season will be because of their defense.
NFC NORTH (Confidence Rating: 7)
(1) Green Bay -- If everyone's healthy, things should return to normal in Packerland, where the expectations are understandably high. Otherwise, the Packers will need everyone on deck as they try to get back to the Super Bowl. I still think their biggest weakness is on their own sideline (five of their seven playoff losses under Mike McCarthy came on the last play of the game), but they'll be dangerous because of the guys between the lines.
(6) Minnesota -- Ultimately, having Sam Bradford at quarterback replacing the grievously injured Teddy Bridgewater changes nothing. The plan is still to give Adrian Peterson the ball, play solid defense at all three levels, and get enough plays in the passing game to win. But this franchise has demons, which we saw manifest again in last year's playoffs. Can they overcome themselves?
Detroit -- Things got better for the Lions in the second half of the season... then Calvin Johnson retired. Now they have to reconfigure their entire offense in a way they haven't been used to for about a decade. Is Jim Caldwell up to the task? More importantly, are Matthew Stafford and Golden Tate up to the task?
Chicago -- This feels like the beginning of the end of... something. A lot of veterans were sent packing as the Bears search for an identity under John Fox and his staff. Stealing offensive lineman Josh Sitton from the rival Packers was a surprise, and Danny Trevathan, Jerrell Freeman and first-round pick Leonard Floyd should help on defense. Even so, they'll still rise and fall with Jay Cutler... but who knows for how much longer.
NFC SOUTH (Confidence Rating: 5)
(3) Carolina -- I did not expect the Panthers to run over the conference on the way to the Super Bowl last season, especially after losing their top receiver, Kelvin Benjamin. Cam Newton was the MVP without him, and I expect Cam to still be mad over losing the Super Bowl. Their destiny is completely in their own hands.
Atlanta -- The Falcons got off to a fast start last season and looked like a surprise contender before fizzling out just as quickly. WR Julio Jones is as good as it gets, but coach Dan Quinn made his name on defense, and that's where the Falcons will need to see improvement.
New Orleans -- It turns out my worries about Drew Brees declining may have been overstated, but it's still something worth paying attention to. The big question for the Saints will be the same one it's been for years: Are they good enough defensively to supplement their high-powered offense?
Tampa Bay -- You're going to have to convince me that the Bucs firing Lovie Smith so they wouldn't lose Dirk Koetter was a good decision. A point in favor of that is that rookie Jameis Winston looked like the real deal. But the recent constant coaching turnover has to be cause for concern -- will they ever find the right guy to lead this team?
NFC WEST (Confidence Rating: 6)
(2) Seattle -- Getting passed by the Cardinals late last season didn't sit well with the Seahawks, and if there's any team that'll find motivation in that, it's this group. Questions abound on the lines, however, especially the offensive line. They're still virtually unbeatable at home, though, and that should save them in the end.
(5) Arizona -- The pressure is on like it has never been. The Cardinals' recent sustained success has smart observers thinking it's time for them to get to the Super Bowl. Carson Palmer's clock is ticking. How many big years does he have left, and can he avoid falling apart in the postseason again?
Los Angeles -- Man, does that look weird to type. The repatriated Rams rolled the dice and traded up to No. 1 to overdraft quarterback Jared Goff, who will sit behind Case Keenum as Jeff "7-9" Fisher inexplicably remains at the controls. Fortunately, the Rams have budding star Todd Gurley to run the ball, and their defensive front is among the best in the league.
San Francisco -- Are we sure Chip Kelly doesn't have personnel control? Because this roster is terrible. Blaine Gabbert, who legitimately does not belong in the NFL, is your starting quarterback. American hero/American pariah Colin Kaepernick, after a dalliance with the trade market, is back as his backup. Not that any of this matters, as the 49ers have to be the early-line favorites to win the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
WILD CARD
Arizona over N.Y. Giants
Carolina over Minnesota
Cincinnati over Houston
Pittsburgh over N.Y. Jets
DIVISIONAL ROUND
Green Bay over Arizona
Seattle over Carolina
Pittsburgh over Oakland
New England over Cincinnati
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
Seattle over Green Bay
New England over Pittsburgh
SUPER BOWL 51
New England over Seattle
(Look, I don't like this any more than you do.)
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