how many teams need to go qb early in the 2018 draft? i can count at least 11, for various reasons.— El Flaco (@bomani_jones) October 15, 2017
I thought 11 seemed high. Then I thought about it some more. Let's dive into this, shall we? (These aren't in any kind of order except the one I thought of them in.)
1. N.Y. Giants. Eli will be 37 four days after the season ends. The Giants are 1-7 with two decent offensive linemen, no running backs, and no linebackers. They did draft Davis Webb in the third round this year, but unless they put him in and the Dak Prescott lightning bolt strikes again, looking for a higher-caliber long-term solution may be the best play.
2. Arizona. I'm mildly surprised they didn't grab one this year. They were rumored to be interested in Patrick Mahomes, but the Chiefs jumped up and grabbed him, taking them off this list. And with Carson Palmer (who'll be 38 at season's end) now done for the year with a broken arm, well...
3. San Francisco. Saved a little money by letting Colin Kaepernick walk instead of releasing him, signed Brian Hoyer and Matt Barkley, then traded for the Patriots' Jimmy Garoppolo just before the deadline. Not the most inspiring set of moves.
4. Jacksonville. Blake Bortles ended up being better than Blaine Gabbert, but he's still bad. We know what Chad Henne is, and that's a career backup. But could they be gun-shy after missing twice on high draft picks?
5. Cleveland. Look, brass tacks here: Deshone Kizer isn't ready. Neither is Kevin Hogan. Or Cody Kessler, who may actually be their best option. Their biggest problem at this present time seems to be committing to a guy, and they don't have a lot invested in these three. If they did have a major investment in someone, that might change.
6. Minnesota. This may seem like a surprising one, but they don't have a single quarterback under contract for next season. Sam Bradford's mediocre when he's healthy, and he's never healthy. Case Keenum can't keep this up. And who knows what, if anything, they'll ever get out of Teddy Bridgewater, who's reportedly close to coming back from that horrific leg injury he suffered last season.
7. N.Y. Jets. Josh McCown is 38. Neither Bryce Petty or Christian Hackenberg were good enough to supplant him this season. The Jets let all of their few good players leave in an obvious attempt to tank for a top quarterback prospect and are a surprising 4-5. They may not get what they want.
8. L.A. Chargers. (God, I'll never get used to that.) Philip Rivers is 35 and really doesn't want to be in Los Angeles, to the point that there were rumors that he had threatened to retire if the franchise moved. Well, he hasn't -- yet -- but the Chargers might want to think about finding a star to groom to get some people into their soccer stadium.
9. Denver. Man, John Elway has low-key completely botched this. He was ready to overpay Brock Osweiler but the Texans turned out to be even crazier. Their first-round pick two years ago, Paxton Lynch, couldn't beat out a seventh-rounder in an open competition two years in a row, and now he's hurt. They brought Osweiler back and he hasn't been any better. And one more thing: Vance Joseph, the head coach, is in his first year. He has no attachment to any of these guys.
10. Pittsburgh. Ben Roethlisberger is 35 with the aches and pains of a man twice that age. Landry Jones, arguably the second-best quarterback in the God-awful 2013 class, still doesn't project as a starter. And this is the franchise that passed up a chance to have Dan Marino succeed Terry Bradshaw. The Steelers might want to get in on the ground floor for a new guy.
11. Washington. Kirk Cousins is an impending free agent after having been hit with the franchise tag for two straight seasons. Neither side has shown any inclination to discuss a long-term deal. Colt McCoy's their only other quarterback, and his deal runs out next year. If Cousins leaves, they'll need a guy.
12. Buffalo. Mostly because they seem hell-bent on dumping Tyrod Taylor, who's only helped them get to 5-3 while seemingly having to break in a new wide receiver every week.
That's already 12, as you can see. I could also make a case for the Ravens (Flacco's regression has to be concerning), Saints (Brees is 38), and maaaaaybe even the Dolphins (is Tannehill really the answer?) That brings you to 15, which is almost half the league. No wonder ratings are down.
Caveat: Whatever number you come up with, you're going to have to subtract two, because somebody's going to give Cousins too much money, and somebody else is going to give Garoppolo way too much money. (The 49ers trading for him doesn't change that; it just makes it more likely that they'll be the ones to do it.)
Now we come to the bigger problem: Numbers. Assume we're holding at 10 (12-2). Ten quarterbacks were drafted this year; four in the first two rounds. Last year, 15 quarterbacks were drafted; four in the first two rounds. In 2015, only seven were drafted; two in the first round. In 2014, 14 were drafted; five in the first two rounds. 2013, 11 and two. 2012, 11 and five(!).
That's... not enough quarterbacks even if they were to all pan out, and of the 68 quarterbacks drafted in the last five years, 22 aren't in the league. Some are going to draft guys who bust out. Some are going to throw money at mediocrity when they figure this out. And some teams are gonna have to wait until next year.
And they may not be able to afford to.
Desperate moves are coming.
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