Bracket Racket

Now that the "opening round" game is over (and if I was in charge, that game would have been Cincinnati vs. Missouri [nee Southwest] State) it's high time we got down to the vital business of sifting through 63 wannabes to find The One True Champion Of Collegiate Basketball At It Highest Level.

I have a system, sort of. It's not perfected by any means. It's evolved over the years as college hoops - and especially the tournament - has changed. Any success I've had doing this is based largely on a combination of common sense and luck.

I don't know if I've tweaked things enough that these tips will work again. But here are some rules I almost always follow and some things you might want to keep an eye on.

Oh, and my fee is 10 percent.

Florida: The New Arizona

Arizona's become notorious for bombing out on the first weekend (Coppin State, Santa Clara, and Wisconsin could easily beat them again this year) and the Gators have followed ably in their footsteps recently. I know nothing of South Alabama, but Oklahoma's good enough to take them out in the second round. The danger here is if they get out of the first weekend, they could make a run to the title game much like Arizona did the year it won.

Put Kansas in this category as well... the Jayhawks, to me, are always perpetually slightly overrated come tournament time, and they're always ripe to be picked off early in the tournament. Be reasonable, but don't stake youre entire bracket on either of these two teams.

Beware the SEC

And not in a good way. The Southeastern Conference was down this year, led (caused?) mainly by Kentucky sloshing its way through the season. Tennessee got a #2 seed (which probably should have gone to Gonzaga) despite not winning the conference tournament. The aforementioned Florida's a #3. I'm not sure how Alabama got in. The entire conference could get wiped out before the weekend.

The 12-5 Rule

By now you know about this one - there's always at least one 12 seed that upsets a 5 seed every year. Butch explained the phenomenon last year better than I could have:

This is a 12 seed. They are a small school, usually from the midwest, that has won their conference tournament and maybe had a game or two against "name" schools. (Or sometimes a big school that had an up-and-down season and got hot enough late to get an invite. --my add) If this were a club, they would be the above-average-cute brunette in the corner sipping on the house special, not sweating everything.

This is a 5 seed. They are a name school from one of the big conferences whose probably fallen off a little bit. Colleges call them "legacies", as they get better positioning because of the name. Club analogy: blonde. Fashionably late. Is wearing your cell bill around her neck. Will have a lot of competition drooling on her and will use them for maximum attention--and almost always will overshadow the brunette because she's flashy.

Now, a lot of times, a guy will see a hot blonde looking for some action and dive on that shit like a fumble. But, if you invest the time in the brunette, set her up with a couple of drinks, you'll be a lot better off in the long run and won't have to double bag it later on the evening.

Kent State over Pittsburgh, maybe? Or possibly Utah State over Washington.

The 10-2 Rule

This is a more recent phenomenon. It's the same as the 12-5 rule, but it happens in the second round. It's based on a similar theory as the 12-5, as teams in the 7 through 10 group tend to be somewhat interchangeable. What tends to happen here is a 10 seed is usually a big-conference team that had a *really* up-and-down season and just made it, and is simply happy to be there as a result. So using Butch's club analogy above, that would be, I guess, the girl who's had a rough week, that got rushed out of the house by her friends and didn't have enough time to get ready. Her hair's a royal mess, she keeps adjusting her shoes, but you look at her and think, "Yeah, she just needs a minute to catch her breath."

The 2 seed in this scenario is generally a weaker 2 seed that maybe should have been a 3. They either did well in a big conference which had a down year or got bounced in the middle of its conference tourney and is in on the strength of its regular season, but doesn't have a lot of momentum. The possible Seton Hall-Tennessee matchup in the second round is screaming at me right now.

A Few Other Things

Air Force? No. Just no.

Consider Iona over LSU.

Didn't Kent State upset Pitt or face Pitt a couple of years ago? That matchup looks familiar for some reason.

When I look for potential upsets, I look at the lower-seeded team and see: 1) how many seniors start and/or play significant minutes; 2) how tall its tallest players are; 3) how well it shoots three-pointers and free throws; and 4) if there's a guy you've never heard of who's in the top 10 nationally in scoring. A player you've seen on TV more than twice, like an Adam Morrison, leading the nation in scoring is rarer than you'd expect.

There's always at least one No. 1 seed that doesn't make the Final Four. But don't go lower than a No. 6.

Completely random: If the head coach has a beard, pass. Only one bearded coach has gotten his team to the Final Four.

One last thing I can't stress enough: Watch the injury situation. If you catch wind that somebody got hurt or somebody's coming back and you can make a quick switch (easy if you're in an online pool), DO IT.