Thursday, March 23, 2006

My Rationale: Anatomy of a Trainwreck

Overheard in the paranoid recesses of my own mind:

"Wow, Matt, did you even follow your own bracket advice, or does it just suck? You're in dead last!"

So what went wrong? Well, several things:

FIRST ROUND
Matt's pick:
(6) Oklahoma over (11) Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Actual score: Wisc.-Milw. 82, Oklahoma 74

It's mostly the same Wisconsin-Milwaukee team that made a run to the Sweet 16 last year. So it's not like this was a huge surprise. We saw them coming. And that's the point. How does a senior-dominated team like Oklahoma not see them coming? If it was a younger squad, like Carolina or Kansas, I could understand. But not the veteran Sooners. Oy.

Matt's pick: (5) Syracuse over (12) Texas A&M
Actual score: A&M 66, Syracuse 58

Did Syracuse just shoot its load winning the Big East tournament just to get into the dance? Possibly. But what killed the Orange this year was the same thing that killed them last year against Vermont: Gerry McNamara couldn't shoot into the ocean.
He scored all of two points a year after going 4 for 18 in that overtime loss to the Catamounts.

Matt's pick: (6) Michigan State over (11) George Mason
Actual score: George Mason 75, Michigan St. 65

Apparently the Big Ten blows. (But pat yourself on the back if you had Georgetown getting out of the first weekend.)

Tuesday, March 21, 2006

Public Service Announcement

If not for you... then do it for the children

I've never seen so many bad haircuts in one place in my life, and I've been going to the Jersey Shore since before I can remember.

Friday, March 17, 2006

March Madness 2006: Day 1 (LIVE!)

12:11 p.m. EST - YOU ARE LOOKING LIVE at the CBS set (which could probably use some refurbishing), and welcome to the first live blog in Jersey Driver history.

12:12 p.m. - Clark Kellogg and Seth Davis are particularly hyperactive today. Greg Gumbel: "I like the fact that Seth has an upset for every hour of the day."

12:15 p.m. - New Jersey's scheduled games: Seton Hall/Wichita St., Marquette/Alabama, Xavier/Gonzaga, and Texas A&M./Syracuse.

12:21 p.m. - Balls are in the air. Wichita State center Paul Miller (#45) was the Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year, averaging... 13 points and 6.5 rebounds per game? Yeesh. Such lofty standards.

12:23 p.m. - We nearly had our first casualty of the tournament as Seton Hall's Kelly Whitney nearly racked analyst Dan Bonner while going after a loose ball.

12:30 p.m. - Wichita State's on an 8-0 run. Seton Hall looks sloppy.

12:40 p.m. - Timeout Seton Hall. They're having... difficulties.

12:46 p.m. - It's our first set of cut-aways (Pacific/Boston College, Wisconsin-Milwaukee/Oklahoma). 23-10 Shockers. Wichita State can't miss.

12:54 p.m. - I'm having some connection problems. Updates might slow down. Bear with me.

1:02 p.m. - Why are we already doing highlights? That's an odd way to lead into a switch. 35-20 Wichita State, and I'm watching BC/Pacific now.

1:07 p.m. - BC 24-17. Wichita State's up 20 now.

1:16 p.m. - Pacific has just closed it to one before BC's Craig Smith slammed one home. Meanwhile, Wichita State's up 40-24 at the half and I'm feeling somewhat stupid because I had Wichita State winning that game and changed my mind.

1:39 p.m. - Back to Wichita St./Seton Hall. For some reason I think Kevin Harlan's voice would lend itself well to announcing wrestling. 50-35 Shockers.

1:41 p.m. - Watching UWM/Oklahoma now. The Sooners have just tied it 37-37 early in the second half. Wisconsin-Milwaukee, you'll remember, made a run to the Sweet 16 last year and has four starters back, while Oklahoma starts four seniors.

1:46 p.m. - What the hell? They've evacuated the Cox Arena in San Diego because of a suspicious package. Alabama/Marquette was supposed to start in an hour.

1:49 p.m. - Seton Hall's making a run. Of course, it's basketball. Everyone makes a run.

1:50 p.m. - Masters promo count: 1.

1:56 p.m. - Boston College has started the second half of its game with a 7-0 run. I think this is our primary game now.

1:59 p.m. - Something new CBS is doing this year: showing all of the other scores simultaneously at the top of the screen. It used to just rotate through them one at a time like they do with the NFL games.

2:16 p.m. - Everyone's pulling away now. Looks like the game in San Diego is gonna start late. Craig Smith's been large for Boston College.

2:26 p.m. - BC center John Oates is the first man to foul out of the tournament. Oklahoma's trying to make a comeback. Pacific has... the Tigers have closed it to two after getting a second chance off an ofensive rebound.

2:35 p.m. - The first two games are winding down. Wichita State laid down some serious smack on Seton Hall, 86-66. Pacific's Johnny Gray just missed a wide-open three in transition.

2:42 p.m. - Wisconsin-Milwaukee has done it again. The Panthers beat Oklahoma 82-74. Pacific just made a layup to close to 63-62 with 26 seconds left.

2:43 p.m. - Pacific's Christian Maraker just hit a wide-open three-pointer to tie it at 65 with 9.1 seconds left. Jim Spanarkel: "There is no question what time of year it is."

2:46 p.m. - Why is Smith bringing the ball up? That's begging for trouble. And he walks! Wow. Now Pacific has the ball, and the Tigers turn it over. Jared Dudley's not going to get enough time put back on the clock from his time out for it to matter.

2:48 p.m. - We have overtime!

2:56 p.m. - Mike Webb has just hit back-to-back threes in transition for Pacific. 71-65.

3:02 p.m. - Boston College has its legs back and they're just trading blows now. The Eagles have come back to trail by two. Time out.

3:04 p.m. - I like going for the tie here. They go inside to Smith and he's fouled. He's not shot free throws well today.

3:05 p.m. - Smith hits the first one... and drains the second one. Tied at 74.

3:06 p.m. - How the hell did Michael White get open down there under the basket? And HE BLEW THE LAYUP!! We're going to double overtime!

3:07 p.m. - Spanarkel: "A reminder. This is the first game of the day."

3:15 p.m. - BC's just about put it away now with Dudley getting fouled on that fadeaway. The Tennessee/Winthrop game has started.

3:17 p.m. - South Alabama/Florida just tipped. 88-76 Boston College. Eight seconds left and everybody's already shaking hands.

3:19 p.m. - The game in San Diego will start in half an hour.

3:39 p.m. - Took a short break. I think we're still going to Alabama/Marquette once it starts, but I've got South Alabama/Florida right now. One of Florida's players may have knocked the basket down an inch or so on a dunk. The one kid is Yannick Noah's son? Really?

3:47 p.m. - And indeed, we're heading to San Diego. Imagine that scene; "Hello, Mr. Enberg. You're going to have to leave."

3:50 p.m. - Alabama's only seven deep and doesn't have its leading scorer. This may not go well.

3:57 p.m. - Is that a "TO-GA" chant?

4:02 p.m. - Good quick interview with selection committee member Chris Hill on the situation at Cox Arena. Tennessee's up by two at the half. Montana has an early lead on Nevada.

4:21 p.m. - Looking in on Montana/Nevada - Nevada's Nick Fazekas battled hard to get a third-chance putback to cut Montana's lead to two.

4:27 p.m. - Some early stats:

Boston College: Craig Smith - 25 points, 12 rebounds; Jared Dudley - 23 points
Pacific: Christian Maraker - 30 points
Wichita St.: Sean Ogirri - 23 points

Tennessee's C.J. Watson picked up his fourth foul four minutes into the second half. And Winthrop just took the lead.

4:31 p.m. - More stats:

Wisconsin-Milwaukee: Boo Davis - 26 points; Joah Tucker - 24 points
Oklahoma: Terrell Everett - 21 points; 11 assists

4:45 p.m. - Tennessee's in trouble. Up 55-54 on Winthrop halfway through the second half.

4:50 p.m. - Tied at 56.

4:52 p.m. - Winthrop can't hit a shot. Scratch that. They just took the lead on a break. Watson's still on the Vols' bench.

5:01 p.m. - Watson's back in for Tennessee. Tied at 58. Florida's putting it down on South Alabama. I don't think we'll be going back to Alabama/Marquette any time soon. Winthrop has gone cold.

5:03 p.m. - Tennessee takes the lead on a Major (no, really) Wingate putback.

5:10 p.m. - Tennessee's Dane Bradshaw just airballed a free throw with the Vols down 61-60. He sank the second one, though.

5:11 p.m. - I'm curious about what's gonna happen when this game ends. Will we just go straight to the local news or back out to the Alabama/Marquette game?

5:14 p.m. - That was a pointless replay.

5:22 p.m. - C.J. LOFTON FROM THE CORNER! He's in mid-air, double-teamed, and falling backwards. No way he should make that shot.

5:24 p.m. - What just happened? Oh, thanks for the replay there - Winthrop made a full-court pass off the backboard, but Craig Bradshaw missed an opportunity to tip it in and send the game to OT. Oh man.

5:25 p.m. - And we're back in San Diego, where Marquette has made a rally. Alabama just took the lead.

5:32 p.m. - PTI leads off with the Tennessee game.

5:44 p.m. - Alabama can't put Marquette away. Jean Felix has 31, but the Tide's only up four with 2:20 to go.

5:45 p.m. - Marquette's Steve Novak just hit back-to-back threes. It's 84-83 Alabama.

5:47 p.m. - 12/5 strikes again! Nevada's about to go down to Montana.

5:48 p.m. - Jim Harbaugh in the house. (His sister is Marquette coach Tom Crean's wife.) Alabama up by one with 54 seconds left.

5:54 p.m. - Montana wins. Brandon Hollinger made his first free throw of the game to give Alabama a four-point lead with 6.4 seconds to go.

5:56 p.m. - Alabama wins, 90-85.

6:31 p.m. - Taking a dinnertime break (though I'll probably actually eat a little later). But the Alabama/Marquette game starting late and running slightly long reminded me of something. Remember when there was always the one game in the West Region that tipped off at about 5 p.m. Eastern time? Us Eastern folks never got to see it, and it never mattered... except for one time. I want to say Drexel got sent out to Boise, Idaho, one year, and CBS couldn't show the game here because of local news obligations.

7 p.m. - All right, I've just turned back to CBS and we're in the middle of Belmont/UCLA. Enberg's going over the Situation from Earler Today. 24-18 Bruins late in the first half.

7:09 p.m. - UCLA 35-23 at the half. This is like getting that hidden West Region game. I expect I'll be shipped to the start of Xavier/Gonzaga after the commercials.

8:02 p.m. - Gonzaga's in trouble. Down 8 with five minutes left in the first half. This happens every year and it's frustrating for bracket watchers. Iona's up by four at halftime. UNC-Wilmington and George Washington are tied. UCLA is taking Belmont roughly from behind.

8:28 p.m. - Wilmington just went on a 9-0 run to start the second half and is up by 10. Is Pops playing? I need to know these things.

8:29 p.m. - Now we're watching Iona-LSU (Xavier/Gonzaga is at halftime).

8:42 p.m. - Wimington's out to a big lead now. Here are some stats from the second wave of games:

Florida: Al Horford - 14 points, 13 rebounds; Joakim Noah - 16 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists
Alabama: Jean Felix - 31 points; Jermareo Davidson - 21 points, 12 rebounds;
Marquette: Dominic James - 20 points; Steve Novak - 17 points, 5-9 3PTFG

8:45 p.m. - Masters promo count: 4.

9:03 p.m. - Xavier has a player named Stanley Burrell? Does he have a blog?

9:12 p.m. - We've had some technical problems. Gonzaga's closed to within two, but big man J.P. Batista has four fouls. 6:50 to go.

9:13 p.m. - We're sent to Wilmington-GW. Pops missed two free throws to leave Wilmington up one with 1:43 left.

9:16 p.m. - Wilmington burned its last time out after that and GW just took the lead on a putback.

9:17 p.m. - Wilmington's T.J. Carter just drilled a three-pointer with 28 seconds left! Ouch!

9:19 p.m. - Carter just fouled GW's Carl Elliott on a three-point attempt! Good Lord, that's moronic. There's one... there's two... he's shooting 68.1 percent... he missed it.

9:21 p.m. - Wow! Carter ran down court and missed a jumper, GW tipped it to Elliott, who lobbed a pass to Maureece Rice, but Rice couldn't get the shot off in time. Overtime.

9:31 p.m. - Blogger's been acting up. Gonzaga pulled to within two on a Batista putback. Wilmington's taken a four-point lead in OT, and Morrison just hit a three to give Gonzaga the lead.

9:33 p.m. - Is Morrison limping?

9:34 p.m. - And Wilmington's blown YET ANOTHER lead - they were up 18 in the second half, and GW's taken a two-point lead and Elliott's at the line.

9:36 p.m. - Elliott made one of two. Wilmington couldn't get a shot off. GW wins! Criticism: CBS should've gone to a straight split-screen there so we could see the action in both games. We missed the Elliott free throws and saw the final half-second of the last possession.

9:38 p.m. - Morrison skies for a rebound off a missed Burrell three and was fouled.

9:40 p.m. - Gonzaga wins! 79-75. Morrison finishes with 35.

10 p.m. - I think Air Force is sick of the criticism.

10:02 p.m. - I think Illinois is sick of Air Force.

10:06 p.m. - Masters promo count: 5.

10:20 p.m. - Southern/Duke. We're getting the standard "four minute segments" speech we get in every 16-1 game.

10:29 p.m. - Texas A&M/Syracuse now. A&M's hit five of eight threes early.

10:43 p.m. - Gerry McNamara's shooting blanks again. This is how Vermont beat Syracuse last year.

11:09 p.m. - Good stat: 37 shots for A&M compared to only 24 for Syracuse.

11:19 p.m. - Great ball movement by A&M on the Walker three.

11:24 p.m. - Duke 40, Southern 34 two minutes into the second half. Usually this is about the point where the No. 1 seed starts pulling away.

11:33 p.m. - The announcers believe that McNamara is hurt. Do you ever need a three-man booth for a college basketball game?

11:42 p.m. - That's weak... they did a switch to A&M/Syracuse right before a time out?

11:48 p.m. - The Syracuse cheerleaders appear to be underage.

11:53 p.m. - Duke's starting to pull away now. Indiana's closed to one.

11:56 p.m. - McNamara has no field goals.

11:59 p.m. - CBS has given up on the Orange. Hello, Hoosiers!

12:11 a.m. - 12-hour posterity post. Indiana can't get over the hump.

12:18 a.m. - Robert Baden sinks a three for Indiana off a deflection, of all things, to give the Hoosiers a two-point lead with 3.3 seconds left.

12:22 a.m. - Indiana wins!

12:25 a.m. - Tomorrow's N.J. air schedule:

Bucknell/Arkansas - 12:30
Monmouth/Villanova - 2:50
Kent St./Pittsburgh - 7:10
Penn/Texas - 9:40

12:27 a.m. - Wait... isn't the Washington game still going on?

Wednesday, March 15, 2006

Bracket Racket

Now that the "opening round" game is over (and if I was in charge, that game would have been Cincinnati vs. Missouri [nee Southwest] State) it's high time we got down to the vital business of sifting through 63 wannabes to find The One True Champion Of Collegiate Basketball At It Highest Level.

I have a system, sort of. It's not perfected by any means. It's evolved over the years as college hoops - and especially the tournament - has changed. Any success I've had doing this is based largely on a combination of common sense and luck.

I don't know if I've tweaked things enough that these tips will work again. But here are some rules I almost always follow and some things you might want to keep an eye on.

Oh, and my fee is 10 percent.

Florida: The New Arizona

Arizona's become notorious for bombing out on the first weekend (Coppin State, Santa Clara, and Wisconsin could easily beat them again this year) and the Gators have followed ably in their footsteps recently. I know nothing of South Alabama, but Oklahoma's good enough to take them out in the second round. The danger here is if they get out of the first weekend, they could make a run to the title game much like Arizona did the year it won.

Put Kansas in this category as well... the Jayhawks, to me, are always perpetually slightly overrated come tournament time, and they're always ripe to be picked off early in the tournament. Be reasonable, but don't stake youre entire bracket on either of these two teams.

Beware the SEC

And not in a good way. The Southeastern Conference was down this year, led (caused?) mainly by Kentucky sloshing its way through the season. Tennessee got a #2 seed (which probably should have gone to Gonzaga) despite not winning the conference tournament. The aforementioned Florida's a #3. I'm not sure how Alabama got in. The entire conference could get wiped out before the weekend.

The 12-5 Rule

By now you know about this one - there's always at least one 12 seed that upsets a 5 seed every year. Butch explained the phenomenon last year better than I could have:

This is a 12 seed. They are a small school, usually from the midwest, that has won their conference tournament and maybe had a game or two against "name" schools. (Or sometimes a big school that had an up-and-down season and got hot enough late to get an invite. --my add) If this were a club, they would be the above-average-cute brunette in the corner sipping on the house special, not sweating everything.

This is a 5 seed. They are a name school from one of the big conferences whose probably fallen off a little bit. Colleges call them "legacies", as they get better positioning because of the name. Club analogy: blonde. Fashionably late. Is wearing your cell bill around her neck. Will have a lot of competition drooling on her and will use them for maximum attention--and almost always will overshadow the brunette because she's flashy.

Now, a lot of times, a guy will see a hot blonde looking for some action and dive on that shit like a fumble. But, if you invest the time in the brunette, set her up with a couple of drinks, you'll be a lot better off in the long run and won't have to double bag it later on the evening.


Kent State over Pittsburgh, maybe? Or possibly Utah State over Washington.

The 10-2 Rule

This is a more recent phenomenon. It's the same as the 12-5 rule, but it happens in the second round. It's based on a similar theory as the 12-5, as teams in the 7 through 10 group tend to be somewhat interchangeable. What tends to happen here is a 10 seed is usually a big-conference team that had a *really* up-and-down season and just made it, and is simply happy to be there as a result. So using Butch's club analogy above, that would be, I guess, the girl who's had a rough week, that got rushed out of the house by her friends and didn't have enough time to get ready. Her hair's a royal mess, she keeps adjusting her shoes, but you look at her and think, "Yeah, she just needs a minute to catch her breath."

The 2 seed in this scenario is generally a weaker 2 seed that maybe should have been a 3. They either did well in a big conference which had a down year or got bounced in the middle of its conference tourney and is in on the strength of its regular season, but doesn't have a lot of momentum. The possible Seton Hall-Tennessee matchup in the second round is screaming at me right now.

A Few Other Things

Air Force? No. Just no.

Consider Iona over LSU.

Didn't Kent State upset Pitt or face Pitt a couple of years ago? That matchup looks familiar for some reason.

When I look for potential upsets, I look at the lower-seeded team and see: 1) how many seniors start and/or play significant minutes; 2) how tall its tallest players are; 3) how well it shoots three-pointers and free throws; and 4) if there's a guy you've never heard of who's in the top 10 nationally in scoring. A player you've seen on TV more than twice, like an Adam Morrison, leading the nation in scoring is rarer than you'd expect.

There's always at least one No. 1 seed that doesn't make the Final Four. But don't go lower than a No. 6.

Completely random: If the head coach has a beard, pass. Only one bearded coach has gotten his team to the Final Four.

One last thing I can't stress enough: Watch the injury situation. If you catch wind that somebody got hurt or somebody's coming back and you can make a quick switch (easy if you're in an online pool), DO IT.