Fearful Forecast 2010

NFC EAST (If it's possible for all four of these teams to somehow finish 9-7, I wouldn't bet against it)

(3) Dallas - I'm hesitant to do this, because we've seen over the past few years that the Cowboys do not hold up well when faced with high expectations (I firmly believe that they were successful last year in no small part because everyone had gotten fed up and written them off). But even with the questions about the reshuffled offensive line and whether or not Miles Austin was a one-year wonder or not, I'm having trouble making a case against them.

N.Y. Giants - I want to think they can bounce back, because they can't be any worse defensively than they were last year and the last time Tom Coughlin's back was against the wall like it is now, they won the Super Bowl. You have to wonder if they can pull that off again, though.

Washington - There's yet another new sheriff and quarterback in town, but Mike Shanahan and Donovan McNabb come in with better credentials than guys Dan Snyder's used to hiring. However, the ongoing Albert Haynesworth foolishness threatens to bring the whole thing crashing down.

Philadelphia - It's a bad sign when you're trading starting offensive linemen in and out eight days before the season starts, especially when said line is protecting a quarterback who's started all of two games. Add continuing uncertainty on defense and a brutally back-loaded schedule and it could be the longest 8-8 season ever.

NFC NORTH (A palace coup may be coming)

(2) Minnesota - I highly doubt Brett Favre will throw only seven interceptions again, especially with Sidney Rice out for half the season and Percy Harvin's head seemingly ready to explode at any time. I'm also less sure his body will be able to hold up. But Adrian Peterson should be motivated to prove he's over his late-season butterfingers and is still the best running back in the league, and the defense is still good enough to give them the edge.

(5) Green Bay - They're on the cusp and they know it. And especially with "ZOMG BRETT FAVRE PLAYS FOR OUR MOST HATED RIVAL" now out of the way, Aaron Rodgers can get on with the vital business of taking that final step to elite status, which means beating the Vikings. Also, their overall defense needs to improve.

Chicago - The desperate Bears made big splashes in free agency, but it turned out to be a pretty weak crop of free agents. Julius Peppers should give the defense a kick, but will new offensive coordinator Mike Martz's pass-happy offense play in Chicago? And will Jay Cutler and the offensive line let it?

Detroit - The road (back?) to respectability is long, but they've been steadily adding actual NFL players to a roster that hasn't seen many in recent years. Coach Jim Schwatrz and quarterback Matthew Stafford are still growing into their roles.

NFC SOUTH (Now it's time to break a streak)

(1) New Orleans - I'm struggling to remember a defending champ that's been as overlooked going into the following season as the Saints are. Offensively, they've lost little firepower, defensively, they've lost little aggressiveness, and I don't see this group resting on its laurels. There is that little thing about this division never having a repeat winner since its creation, but all streaks end. The only thing that can stop them is the Madden curse.

(6) Atlanta - Case in point. The Falcons have already defied convention by having back-to-back winning seasons for the first time ever. Now they want to get back to the playoffs. A lot of people have them winning the South, but even though they're better - especially in the secondary - they still aren't better than the Saints.

Carolina - There may be no bigger gap at any position on any team in the NFL than the one between Steve Smith and whoever the Panthers' No. 2 receiver actually is. They'll miss Peppers on defense more than they'll care to admit. If there's any chance for success here, they should lean on what's still a top-class running game and not try to let Matt Moore loose... look at how well that worked with Jake Delhomme.

Tampa Bay - Things are much calmer in Tampa than they were at this time last year when assistants were getting fired left and right, and that can only be a good thing for a young team that can't really have any expectations this season. The Buccaneers will still be bad, but it'll be a more hopeful bad than last year was, if that makes any sense.

NFC WEST (The Bay Area actually survives a seismic shift)

(4) San Francisco - Once again, the West is the 49ers' division to lose, but this edition won't remind anyone of the glory days at the Park Formerly Known As Candlestick. On the up side, Alex Smith isn't looking over his shoulder any more and the team seems to be buying what coach Mike Singletary's selling.

Seattle - Me, on the Raiders last year: "Hey, somebody's got to finish second. Of course, 'second' could be 6-10." I worry that "Pete Carroll, head coach" is the NFL's equivalent of "Javier Vazquez, starting pitcher for the New York Yankees." Also, does Deion Branch have Paul Allen on video with goats or breaking into Apple headquarters or something?

Arizona - The Cardinals are replacing retired quarterback Kurt Warner with Derek Anderson, who - and I cannot stress this enough - the Cleveland Browns couldn't get rid of fast enough. The Super Bowl losers' curse appears to have come one year late.

St. Louis - Starting over is hard. Especially when you're starting almost from scratch. Steven Jackson is a welcome sight in the backfield for rookie quarterback Sam Bradford, not to mention the Rams' only hope of not being a complete embarrassment.

AFC EAST (The mood is about to change)

(3) New England - The Patriots hear all the talk coming out of New York and are still licking their own wounds from the playoff spanking the Ravens gave them. Even though I think Bill Belichick slipped a bit last season and their running game leaves a lot to be desired, the Patriots still won the division and shouldn't have any trouble finding motivation. Finding a pass rush? That's another story.

(6) N.Y. Jets - Anybody else feel like they're setting themselves up for a fall here? We saw this before when they made the playoffs in Eric Mangini's first season before tumbling to Earth, and it wasn't as loud back then as it has been with Rex Ryan in charge. Now that the ferry to Revis Island is back in service, the big question here is Mark Sanchez, who didn't have a good preseason by any measure.

Miami - This was a tough call, leaving them out of the playoffs. Chad Henne showed flashes when he was pressed into action (and he probably would have been the starter this season anyway) and Brandon Marshall was a good pickup, but I look at the Dolphins and I feel like there's still something missing. I can't put my finger on it. Still, they'll be in the mix, and expect the AFC wild card race to be every bit the battle royale it was last year.

Buffalo - There's so little to like here that I'm not even sure what to say anymore. I mean, you can count the number of things the Bills have done right in the past decade on one hand. The Chan Gailey hiring inspires little confidence, as does Trent Edwards at quarterback. They won six games last year mostly because of their defense, and their defensive coordinator... now works for the Giants, who know firsthand how much difference a good coordinator makes.

AFC NORTH (Someone left the windows open)

(1) Baltimore - I'm not sure I get the late addition of T.J. Houshwhateverhisnameis but he's yet another guy who should help Joe Flacco not lose his cool in big spots. The Ravens expect to find themselves in a lot of big spots, so that'll be crucial. A concern? The back of their defense, which is being held together with duct tape and cheap rope at the moment.

(5) Cincinnati - Of the rest of the contenders, the Bengals probably have the most balance between run and pass and offense and defense. But all eyes will be focused on the T.O. and Chad Show, and I'm a bit skeptical how much those two no-longer elite receivers really have left.

Pittsburgh - Little Ben finally crossed the line and now Big Ben must pay for his sins. But the Steelers may still have a run in them if they can survive September without him and if their defense doesn't age 10 years overnight. They also need to work on their special teams coverage units, which were laughably bad last season.

Cleveland - The Browns did well to win their final four games last season - and likely saved Eric Mangini's job - in spite of the utter lack of talent on the roster. It isn't much better this season, though Joshua Cribbs did get paid.

AFC SOUTH (There's a mountain you've got to climb)

(2) Indianapolis - The Colts are secretly extremely thankful that Reggie Wayne didn't win the voting for the cover of Madden 11 because I shudder to think what would have happened to him. We've seen things happen to teams thought "too good" to fall victim to the Super Bowl losers' curse, but short of what happened to Tom Brady two years ago happening to Peyton Manning, I can't make that call here.

Tennessee - Chris Johnson set an almost impossibly high bar last season, and he didn't even really start lifting it until Vince Young took over at quarterback and the Titans committed to running the ball. More will be asked of Young this year with defenses focusing on Johnson, and his success will determine what happens to the Titans.

Houston - As if their past inability to beat the Colts wasn't enough, the Texans - who have been the "team of the future" for about five years running - now face issues with their running game and secondary.

Jacksonville - The struggle here remains getting people to care. Coach Jack Del Rio almost fled for USC before deciding to stay, which may not have been a wise move considering he's got to get the Jaguars back on the winning track, if for no other reason than to put people in the seats. I can only assume Maurice Jones-Drew drafted himself No. 1 overall in fantasy.

AFC WEST (Let's not get ahead of ourselves)

(4) San Diego - It's been an offseason of great turmoil in Chargerland as some guys have left and others don't want to come back until they get a lot more money than they're getting right now. But even without Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeil, there's too much talent here to say the Chargers aren't going to win the division. By the way, Philip Rivers is very good.

Oakland - Jason Campbell is an upgrade over JaMarcus Russell. Unfortunately for the Raiders, some of the people reading this would also be an upgrade over JaMarcus Russell. Throw in a running game full of question marks, an underachieving and underdeveloped receiving corps, a good tight end, and a coach in way over his head and Campbell could be wondering if he actually left the Redskins.

Denver - The only constant these days is change. Josh McDaniels has hitched his wagon to the Tim Tebow star, but the wheels probably won't start turning for a couple years until he's ready to play. In the meantime, the most nondescript Broncos team in recent memory will try to keep their now-annual late-season collapse from being too damaging while the rest of the league tries to figure out what, exactly, the grand plan is here.

Kansas City - Let's stop with the idea some pundits have that the Chiefs can make a run at a wild-card spot. Seriously. Just stop. Now that that's out of the way, there is some reason for optimism - people are calling Eric Berry the next Ed Reed, the Jamaal Charles/Thomas Jones running back platoon should be fun, and the reunion of Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel on Todd Haley's staff makes for an intriguing second chance for two guys with something to prove.

WILD CARD
Atlanta over Dallas; Green Bay over San Francisco
Cincinnati over San Diego; New England over N.Y. Jets

DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
New Orleans over Atlanta; Green Bay over Minnesota
Baltimore over Cincinnati; Indianapolis over New England

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
Baltimore over Indianapolis
New Orleans over Green Bay

SUPER BOWL WHATEVER
New Orleans over Baltimore

Back in the Game

"You know what? I should start playing poker again."

That's a thought I had about a week or so ago when I realised that I needed something to do when I'm not working other than sleep, eat, kill time on Facebook, and not blog.

So I've started playing online again. And I've been amusing myself with the North American Poker League qualifying freerolls on Pokerstars. They're six-handed double shootouts - six players play until there's one left, then the survivors play for a ticket into the daily main tournament.

Something those unfamiliar with poker, especially poker that you don't actually have to pay money to play, is that players tend to do... strange things. In freerolls like this, along with bustos like myself, you have people who are just having fun and people who genuinely don't know what they're doing. So you get a lot of this:

Hand 1:

Poker Stars Freeroll No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 6 players

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: t1500 75 BBs

Hero (SB): t1500 75 BBs

BB: t1500 75 BBs

UTG: t1500 75 BBs

MP: t1500 75 BBs

CO: t1500 75 BBs

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is SB with Q K

1 fold, MP raises to t1500 all in, 4 folds

Final Pot: t50

MP wins t50

No one called in this spot, but you'd be amazed at the hands you see when people do call. So after the first hand, we're still six-handed, which is an upset in and of itself.

Two hands later I picked up Aces. (Don't worry, this doesn't end the way a poker story that starts with "...I picked up Aces" usually ends.) I raise and get three callers. The flop comes 10-8-3 with two hearts and the small blind bets. The guy next to him folds. I raise and immediately start talking to the computer screen. I'm saying out loud, "Fold. You need to fold. You really need to fold."

The next player goes all in. Now it's back to the bettor and I'm apoplectic. "You don't have anything. Trust me. Fold. Don't do this to yourself. FOLD!"

He doesn't fold either.

Poker Stars Freeroll No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 6 players

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP: t1500 75 BBs

Hero (CO): t1470 73.50 BBs

BTN: t1470 73.50 BBs

SB: t1550 77.50 BBs

BB: t1510 75.50 BBs

UTG: t1500 75 BBs

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is CO with A A

2 folds, Hero raises to t60, BTN calls t60, SB calls t50, BB calls t40

Flop: (t240) T 8 3 (4 players)

SB bets t280, BB folds, Hero raises to t700, BTN raises to t1410 all in, SB raises to t1490 all in, Hero calls t710 all in

Turn: (t4470) 3 (3 players - 3 are all in)

River: (t4470) 2 (3 players - 3 are all in)

Final Pot: t4470

Hero shows A A (two pair, Aces and Threes)

BTN shows J 9 (a pair of Threes)

SB shows 8 4 (two pair, Eights and Threes)

Hero wins t4470

The real upset here is that my Aces held.

Now at this point, we're down to three players at my first-round table. This goes on for a while, and I soon realize that the guy on my right doesn't seem to know that he can move the bet slider to the right, or even that he can type a number in the box next to it, if he wants to bet more than the minimum on every street. I've abused this tendency of his several times to my benefit and have a decent chip lead when I get dealt two Kings on the button.

So I raise, the small blind calls and the big blind re-raises the same amount. I re-pop it (for more than the amount I raised to start with), the small blind calls and the big blind apparently figures out what that slider's for, as he moves all-in. OK, whatever. So since I have two Kings, I push all my chips in to get the third player out of the hand.

But he doesn't fold right away.

And here I go again. "Fold. Fold! You can't call this bet. You don't have me beat and you know you don't have me beat. I'm telling you this for your own good. FOLD."

I'm clearly too nice a person to play this game. I mean, I'm sitting here, yelling at the screen, knowing they can't hear me, and trying to get them to do something that I know is not in my best interest... for the second time in the match.

Poker Stars Freeroll No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 3 players

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: t1100 36.67 BBs

Hero (BTN): t4955 165.17 BBs

SB: t2945 98.17 BBs

Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is BTN with K K

Hero raises to t100, SB calls t85, BB raises to t170, Hero raises to t390, SB calls t290, BB raises to t1100 all in, Hero raises to t4955 all in, SB calls t2555 all in

Flop: (t6990) K Q 2 (3 players - 3 are all in)

Turn: (t6990) J (3 players - 3 are all in)

River: (t6990) 3 (3 players - 3 are all in)

Final Pot: t6990

BB shows A 7 (high card Ace)

Hero shows K K (three of a kind, Kings)

SB shows Q 9 (a pair of Queens)

Hero wins t3690

Hero wins t3300

Final table, here I come.

Out And Back: Chido Burrito

We all mature in different ways, at different speeds and at different times. Our tastes change, evolve, become more grown-up. We stop liking things we used to, start liking things we didn't, and want better versions of the things we already like.

Basically what I'm saying here is that there comes a time when you want - nay, need - more from a taco than Taco Bell's ever going to give you.

That's the impulse that sent me to Chido Burrito last week.

807 Tilton Road, Northfield, N.J.

Chido Burrito considers itself a brother to the American-Mexican division of the "fast casual" movement - your Chipotles, your Moe's, your Qdobas, for those needing context. This is evident when you walk in and are confronted with a massive menu board and a floor-to-ceiling-length imitation straw umbrella right in the middle of the seating area. In fact, it's probably made out of wood. See the surfboards in the parking lot up there? That's their thing - surf themes are all over the music and TV screens.

After being greeted by a younger, taller Topanga look-alike, the second thing I noticed was the meat and chicken being cooked on the grill in the background. Actually see the food being cooked has always been oddly reassuring to me, and I've never understood why. It doesn't mean anything. I mean, do we know what kind of meat that is? I kid, or course. I think.

So I got the three beef tacos. They don't have pico de gallo in the strictest sense so I settled for a tiny bit of diced tomatoes. (Despite being practically a New Jersey native, I've never been a whole tomato guy. Shrug.) Add lettuce and cheese, throw some chips on the side and we're ready to pay, get sauces and eat.

The first bite? Good. The hard shell was crunchy but not brittle, so there's not much danger of half the filling ending up on the plate or in far less appetizing places. The beef, pulled and shredded, was juicy and not chewy at - wait, what? The beef is juicy?

This completely threw me off, though I had to not show it because the place had filled up behind me by the time I sat down. But in all seriousness, I had never eaten a taco - not even the ones I make for myself - with meat in it that actually dripped juices. Especially beef - it's always either a little overcooked or so dry and unsubstantial that you've gotta load stuff on it just to feel like you're eating something. I'm not exaggerating when I tell you that this was a minor revelation. It'll also put any concerns you may have about the authenticity of the meat to rest.

A couple bites later, though, I discovered a serious problem. The sauces that they put out had no flavor whatsoever. No heat, no spice, no kick of any kind, nothing. I had three different ones (different colors, even!) and they could have all been the same or not been there at all for what they added to the meal. That'll be hard to get past.

A few other things:

• They sell churros (Seriously! Where else outside an amusement park are you getting churros?)
• The fries come coated with what I imagine is their house spice blend that was too strong for a couple of kids in the place
• It is fortunate that they don't cling to the idea of "authentic Mexican" because the presence of fries, along with hot wings, on the menu would call that into serious question

I feel like there's potential here. That sauce thing has got to be fixed, and maybe the tacos aren't actually the best thing on the menu, but it wasn't bad overall.

Wings on Fire

So I'm sitting in the office Sunday night puttering along as usual when the call comes.

Donovan McNabb's been traded?

To the Washington Redskins?

A division rival?

Really?

REALLY?!?!?!

Never has one decision thrown every aspect of my life into complete chaos.

Right now, it qualifies as the second-worst personnel decision the Eagles have ever made. (The first, of course, was letting Reggie White - arguably the greatest Eagle ever - leave in free agency for no good reason and getting nothing in return.) Green Bay traded Brett Favre to the Jets. San Francisco traded Joe Montana to Kansas City. The Oilers traded Warren Moon to Minnesota. You know what all of those teams have in common? They don't play each other twice a year.

You don't - DO NOT - trade such an important player - especially a top-10 quarterback - to a team that can hurt you as badly as the Redskins can now hurt the Eagles.

The trade itself was only a mild shock. With all three of their quarterbacks in the final year of their respective contracts (an unusually egregious oversight by the Eagles' front office), the situation had to be settled. They couldn't risk going into the 2010-11 offseason not knowing what they had in Kolb and not knowing if McNabb would want to return. So something had to be done.

But to the Redskins? With the division's best defense and finally a head coach and GM who know what they're doing? And that's the most you get in return? Jay Cutler can't lace McNabb's cleats and the Broncos got two first-round picks from the Bears for him. McNabb's only worth a 2 and a conditional 3? And if the Raiders did offer their second-rounder and Nnamdi Asomugah - only one of the league's five best cornerbacks - then it wasn't even the best offer the Eagles got.

Are the Eagles a better team now than they were a week ago? Not one reasonably intelligent football fan would say "yes."

I still remember the uproar when the Eagles were considering taking McNabb in 1999. I remember the chorus of boos that rained down from the Theatre at Madison Square Garden when the pick was announced. I remember McNabb looking completely unfazed by it all. I remember some so-called "experts" claiming that it was a bad decision. But the truth then - and even more so now - is that your football team will never be successful without a good quarterback. Ask any Cleveland Browns fan.

Andy Reid knew that. That's why he drafted McNabb and didn't draft Ricky Williams, and didn't trade out of the No. 2 spot in the draft and risk not getting the quarterback he needed. Oh, and by the way, not only did Williams never live up to his potential, but three of the other four quarterbacks drafted in the first round that year never got a second contract, including the ones drafted right before (Tim Couch) and after (Akili Smith) McNabb.

Is Kevin Kolb a big-time quarterback? Can he be? The truth is, we don't know. Sure he's the only quarterback in history to throw for over 300 yards in his first two starts, but let's not forget that: in the first start he also threw three interceptions and the Eagles lost by 26 points; and the second start was against the Chiefs, one of the three worst teams in the NFL last season.

And while we're here, let's get something else straight: The Aaron Rodgers comparison only succeed to a certain point. People forget this, but Aaron Rodgers was being talked about as going No. 1 overall in the draft in 2005. Kevin Kolb was on no one's radar.

As far as McNabb, sure, the biggest strike against him is that he "can't win the big game." But let's look at those big games again. The Rams and Patriots were better teams. The Cowboys were a bad matchup across the board last season. The entire team played terribly against the Panthers (that was the game where the Eagles' WRs dropped about 10 passes and was the impetus to go get Terrell Owens) and the defense cost them the game against the Cardinals after McNabb had led them back from a defense-caused deficit. The only one of those losses you can realistically blame McNabb and only McNabb for is the Vet finale against the Buccaneers, and Ronde Barber owned McNabb his whole career, not unlike how Ty Law owned Peyton Manning when Law was with the Patriots.

Admittedly, McNabb tended to underthrow receivers and seemed a little over-sensitive to criticism at times. And some of that criticism was deserved. But a lot of the criticism - much of it from uninformed corners such as Rush Limbaugh, Bernard Hopkins and the president of the Philadelphia NAACP - was specious at best and flat-out inaccurate at worst.

And now some of those same people, along with the segment of idiot "fans" who give Philadelphia sports fans worldwide a bad name, are glad he's gone. You all know who you are, too. You booed him at the draft, were ready to dump him after he'd gotten the Eagles to three straight conference title games, took Terrell Owens' side when he turned against him, and conveniently forgot that Rodney Peete, Ty Detmer and the immortal Bobby Hoying had been taking regular snaps from center in the three years prior to McNabb's arrival. He was the best and most successful quarterback in that franchise's otherwise miserable history and you never accepted him. I hope you morons are happy.

I'm willing to give Kolb a chance. But this had better work. Because right now, it looks like a bad move. And if 54 weeks from now, Roger Goodell is standing at the podium in the Theatre at Madison Square Garden saying, "With the first pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, the Philadelphia Eagles select Jake Locker, quarterback, University of Washington," then it's an absolute disaster.

Questions You Didn't Ask Me

Just how bad a beating did your bracket take?

Brutal. Both of my pools were effectively over halfway through the Sweet 16. And no, I didn't win either of them. The only two things I can hang my hat on this year are picking Murray State to beat Vanderbilt (Three teams won 30 games this year. The other two were Kentucky and Kansas) and getting the West Region right through the Sweet 16 in my Yahoo pool.

Was the Big East overrated after all?

Yes and no. I don't fully buy into the idea that you can determine the real strength of a conference by how its teams do in postseason play, though it's probably a little easier in basketball than football now that every football team in America runs the spread these days. On the other hand, I'm still a bit baffled at how Notre Dame and Marquette, after widely being considered bubble teams going into the Big East tournament, both ended up pulling No. 6 seeds. Georgetown just didn't show up against Ohio. The Hoyas are wherever Luke Harangody and Scottie Reynolds' shot are.

What happened to Temple?

Cornell couldn't miss. This was a classic case of my "three S's" theory of a few years ago making a comeback. The three S's are shooting, size and seniors, and if you're a lower-level team that has all three, you're never really out of any game. Also, somebody had to eat the 12-5 bullet (and both teams were probably seeded too low anyway.)

Who did the committee leave out of the field this year?

Virginia Tech raised the biggest stink, but the Hokies' 12-1 nonconference record is a bit deceiving. They didn't beat a good team all year. You could make a case for Mississippi State, but not a very strong one. Honestly, the correct answer is "no one." Every team in the field of 65 should have been. Well, except Florida.

Speaking of...

Expansion. For or against?

AGAINST. The only reason this is even being considered is because the "C" in NCAA actually stands for "cash". Why else would you mess with perfection?

The one expansion proposal I would even consider ties in to something that regular readers know I've been complaining about for years: I've always hated the fact that the "first-round" game consists of the lowest two automatic qualifiers, leaving one of them out of the main bracket. An automatic bid should be just that - an automatic bid.

So what I would be in favor of is something like the following: The tournament is seeded as normal except for the last four at-large spots. Then the selection committee takes the last eight at-large teams and matches them up in four play-in games. Play two games at two sites on the Tuesday that the play-in game is now and we settle this bubble business once and for all.

Exactly how large are Ali Farokmanesh's balls?

IMMEASURABLE.

What did we learn that can help our brackets next year?

Well, we can officially add "be wary of high-seeded teams with double-digit losses" to the rulebook. When I say "high seeded," I mean seventh or better. Just... be careful. Especially if their first-round opponent only has single-digit losses.

Also, Kansas is probably back in the "not to be trusted past the first round" camp.

Can Butler actually win this thing?

Sure, why not?

DIY 2: Electric Boogaloo

Same room. New challenge.

For as long as I can remember, I've valued my independence. From growing up as a typical 1980's latchkey kid to living in a single dorm room my last two years of college to living on my own for about seven and a half years now, I've always managed to figure out how to do things on my own, from teaching myself how to cook the basics to rigging a TV stand to putting in an overhead desk light in a desk with no overhead holes. (Here's how I did that.) Truth be told, I'm probably not as improvisational and self-reliant as I like to think I am sometimes, but I've still figured out enough to get me this far.

But what possessed me to try to replace my own bathroom sink? I mean, it looks fine...


But upon closer inspection...


Oh. Yeah, that's kind of an important piece that's just sitting out on the surface of the sink like that instead of being down in the drain where, well, where it's supposed to be. I'm not exactly sure how this happened. But it caused a problem that needs to be solved.

There's not a lot of room to wriggle around in the cabinets underneath the sink, but I was able to squeeze my way in there and get the underneath bolt supports loose enough to disconnect the assembly from the water line. Which left me with this:


Notice that the faucet is still attached to the flex piping. Easy enough to remove, right? Not if your wrench isn't big enough. I was going to need reinforcements.

BY THE POWER OF GREYSKULL!!!!

You could knock somebody out cold with that thing. Seriously.

So I put the BIG WRENCH to work and got the old faucet off the pipes, then switched it out for the new joint.

Some serious age down below

Now this was the hard part - installing the new plunger. First I had to remove a leaky section of pipe and get the old pop-up assembly out of its death grip to the underside of the sink. Then I had to put the new one in its own death grip (which is far more manageable) and figure out how to re-attach the pipe and test for the leak, then tape it up.

The new pop-up assembly. It's GREEN! The wooden bit on the left is the sliding drawer on the top level of the cabinet.

The last part was installing the actual plunger and connecting it to the assembly, which revealed the source of the problem that led to all of this in the first place: the previous plunger had somehow gotten stuck and broke off inside the drain, which not only caused the leak, but also caused the drain stopper to snap off. Who knows. But after several adjustments, I got the plunger to work to where it does what it's supposed to do... plunge.

See? That thing moves up and down now like it's supposed to.

SUCCESS! *flexes*

All told, the job took five to six hours, not including cleanup and disposal of water and undesirables:

The de-parted

The moral of the story is that the "easy installation" that was touted on the package is a half-truth at best.

The other moral of the story is that sometimes doing it yourself is worth the aggravation, even if it's not done perfectly, because you can go and adjust things later and actually know what you're trying to do (and saving at least $300 in the process).

Actually, the real moral of the story, when you take into account that I've replaced a toilet, a water heater, a refrigerator, and now the bathroom sink since I've been here is this:

The next place I live is going to be a lot newer.

----------------
Listening to: Kanye West - Stronger
via FoxyTunes

By The Pigskin of Our Teeth: I'm On A Float

This is the first Super Bowl in a long time where I'll be OK with whoever wins. Josh: "Carrie Underwood just arrived off the set of Xanadu." Also, big ups to the folks at Sun Life, whose campaign clearly worked.

We are having some severe technical difficulties here at the office. Not sure how much attention I'll be paying here. The NFC has won the last 13 coin tosses? That's nuts. WE HAVE A DWIGHT FREENEY SIGHTING. Let's see how long this lasts. Has Peyton missed yet? Okay, there's one and that one was knocked away. Hey, a running play. Stover. Good. FUMB- Oh. And yeah, it wouldn't have stood up anyway.

Am I supposed to know who that was in the Motorola ad? I think I am, but I don't.

So the Saints punt and pin the Colts at their own 4, then the Colts proceed to snap off a 96-yard touchdown drive. That's got to be demoralizing. Especially the way the Colts got the touchdown with Garcon running in a straight line and the defense getting crossed up. The Saints have come back with a good drive here, but they need to score. Freeney with the key sack. Still, three's better than nothing.

An entire commercial in auto-tune? Shoot me.

You know what's been missing from this game so far? Deep passes. Seems like all the throws have been short ones. And the few times either team's tried to go deep, it hasn't been there, like when Brees missed Shockey just then. Another time-consuming drive by the Saints, keeping the Colts' offense off the field (even though it didn't work when the Dolphins tried it in Week 2.) Very important series here. That false start won't help. Fourth and GAHHH. That's a potential game-deciding play right there. Brackett and company just blew that one up. On the flip side, they've got the Colts stuck at their own 1. On the flip side of that, the Colts did just snap off a 96-yard touchdown drive and are certainly capable of doing it again in far less time. Except that they won't. Why are they measuring this? He didn't make it. The Saints getting the ball back and scoring before halftime is potentially big - that'll be worth watching as the second half starts.

THE NAME OF THE GROUP ON STAGE. Speaking of that stage, it's making me dizzy. This isn't the smoothest-transitioning medley I've ever heard. Daltrey's voice isn't what it used to be, and I think I remember reading something not too long ago where he himself said that he thought his singing voice was only going to last a couple more years. This was... eh. They're running out of "iconic" rock acts to do this with, aren't they? Makes me think Matt's suggestion of going completely retro and bringing back marching bands to perform at halftime might be the way to go.

An onside kick?! ARE YOU KIDDING ME. There are some truly unspeakable things going on at the bottom of that pile. Things I can't talk about in mixed company, and frankly, things I'm not entirely comfortable discussing with myself. Make a call. MAKE A CALL. Saints ball! Wow. I mean it took them about three minutes to decide. But now they have to pay it off or it's all for naught. I like going to the air here - keeps the Colts even more off-balance than they probably already are. Also, Peyton's still on the sideline. Touchdown! That's the same screen they scored on on their first drive against the Vikings. Ladies and gentlemen, the New Orleans Saints are ahead in the Super Bowl.

That was relatively short-lived. Who says the Colts can't run the ball? Also Dallas Clark wins almost any matchup he's in so the Colts were wise to go back to him also. Is this when the offensive floodgates open? I mean, there are a lot of passes being thrown now, which I'm sure is what we all expected from the start. Another field goal? Hmmm. Not sure about that, but you have to think Hartley's confidence is sky-high after hitting the game-winner in the NFC title game. Plus, the Saints know they have to keep this game as close as they can.

Take a knee. TAKE. A. KNEE. Oh, dear. The 11-yard line? That's just bad. Haven't heard Reggie Wayne's name much tonight. And as soon as I think that, he then catches two straight balls, including that one on 4th and two that he almost dropped. That's a big miss and not really in Stover's range at his age but I'm not sure what else you do there. However, as Simmons pointed out, that kick should have been nine yards shorter.

Man, Brees cannot miss. Jeremy Shockey lives! They're going for two here, right? Wait, so what are they looking at? Oh, I see - when he rolls over the second time, he stretches the ball over the plane before he loses it. This should count. Aaaaand it does.

Just under six minutes. Plenty of time. I'm not sure if it's the Colts who have Wayne locked up on Porter or the Saints who have Porter locked up on Wayne but that well's been running pretty dry tonight. Really, Phil Simms? Why wouldn't you blitz here? The Colts have thrown about two deep balls all game (which I think has been a game planning mistake - test these guys deep down the sidelines. Make them cover you down the field.) HOLY CRAP. Did that actually happen? That's really fantastic coverage and Porter jumped all over it. Here's why I love Phil Simms: "What was I saying? Don't blitz? Well, they sent everybody."

Still, this isn't over by any means. But it will be if the Colts don't at least try a deep ball. There's one! I mean, seriously. They don't need a lot of time to score - we've established this - but they have to use that time better. Well that was kind of dumb. Offensive pass interference? What a time for that. Peyton didn't want to call that time out but it's probably a good thing that he did. Well, this is it. It sure is. OMG right through Wayne's hands. This was, like, the shortest Super Bowl ever. You know what else? The better team won. And make no mistake - the Saints won this game. I had the Saints ranked ahead of the Colts for almost the entire season (granted, it was a 1 vs. 1a deal in the middle of the season) up until they lost. Laissez le bon temps roulez or some such. Butch: "I remember as a kid growing up the Super Bowl was boring. The good ol' days are RIGHT NOW." (Saints 31, Colts 17)

So now that that's over with, let's do something I've never done before and go back and look at some of my preseason predictions:

"SUPER BOWL XLIV: New England over New Orleans (This looks familiar... yeah... these are the teams I picked for the Super Bowl last year, with the same result.)"

Yeah, I had the Saints in the Super Bowl, but losing to the Pats, who I expected to go on a swath after winning 11 games with an untested backup QB and still missing the playoffs the year before. Instead, they traded Richard Seymour, their best defensive player, three weeks before the regular season and failed to replace his production, creating a defense that couldn't stop anyone down the stretch.

"NFC EAST

(1) Philadelphia – Even though I'm terrified by all the turnover and problems on defense, I think I ultimately went this way because Donovan McNabb's a better quarterback than Eli Manning and this looks like a team that can score enough points to overcome its defensive issues, which may well sort themselves out."

I was right about the Birds' explosive offense. I was also right to be concerned about the defense, which got cut up by injuries and defections. They didn't win the division, either. Stupid Raiders.

"(5) N.Y. Giants – The G-Men might actually have the best defense in the league, or at least have the personnel and potential for it. But we saw how one-dimensional their offense became last year when Plaxico shot himself in the foot, and the always-reliable Amani Toomer isn't around anymore either. They're a playoff team, but the young receivers need to develop if they want to think Super Bowl."

Oh boy. The Giants' D completely fell apart under new coordinator Bill Sheridan, giving up 85 points to the Eagles in two games alone. Injuries on the back end didn't help, but a lot of the defensive players regressed badly from last season. A couple of the young receivers did develop: Steve Smith 2.0 became a star and Mario Manningham showed potential as a deep threat.

"Dallas – The Cowboys still have plenty of talent on paper, but they seem to lack heart and discipline and are running out of scapegoats. This could go well, or this could become a disaster, especially with their December schedule; they could lose their last five games (at Giants, San Diego, at New Orleans, at Washington, Philadelphia.)"

As lowly-regarded as Wade Phillips is as a head coach (and still rightly so in many respects), the man's always known defense, and it was the defense that carried the Cowboys to actual wins in December and in the playoffs, even.

"NFC SOUTH

(2) New Orleans – New defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has a reputation for reviving defenses. The offense needs no reviving, and I see Reggie Bush having a big year, which will only help Drew Brees and company."

Yeah, pretty much nailed this one. :)

"(6) Atlanta – I'm fully aware that the Falcons have somehow never had back-to-back winning seasons. Seriously, that seems almost impossible. Despite that, I get a real sense this time that things are different. The Tony Gonzalez trade was good for all parties involved."

QB Matt Ryan's midseason injury probably cost them a chance to make a run at a playoff spot, but they put the kibosh on that no back-to-back winning seasons thing.

"NFC WEST

(4) Seattle – Assuming Matt Hasselbeck stays healthy and their WR corps doesn't get sliced and diced by injuries again, the talent level is about the same as when the Seahawks were ruling this division, Plus..."

Well, this year it was the offensive line that got sliced and diced by injuries. The Seahawks didn't win the division or even come close.

"Arizona – Remember, bad things always happen to the team that loses the Super Bowl. Fortunately, the NFC West is still pretty bad (and the Seahawks are the last Super Bowl loser in recent memory to return to the playoffs the following season). Unfortunately, they've also got the Madden curse working against them, too. Fear – or fear for – Larry Fitzgerald."

How about this? The Cardinals beat both curses and even won a wild-card game. And nothing really happened to Fitz.

"AFC NORTH

(3) Pittsburgh – Same old, same old. The champs lost no one irreplaceable and actually get back second-year runner Rashard Mendenhall to help with the rushing attack."

I'd like to forget I ever said this. The Steelers' D lost Troy Polamalu early and got about five years older overnight. And the offensive line remained a concern. Mendenhall ended up becoming the rushing attack after Willie Parker stopped being "Fast."

"Cleveland – The Browns won't be great, but they might be a little better than people think. Whoever the quarterback is – probably Brady Quinn – needs to hope that Jamal Lewis still has a tank left and that Braylon Edwards can remember how to catch."

I had no idea they'd be as bad as they were. None.

"AFC SOUTH

(5) Tennessee – The Titans ran their way to the best record in the AFC before an inauspicious loss to the Ravens at home in the playoffs. They hope to have added more balance with rookie wideout Kenny Britt (Rutgers~!) and Nate Washington, who's good for at least one 50-yard bomb a game."

Er... no. The Titans inexplicably got off to an 0-5 start before Vince Young was put in at quarterback, and at that point, Chris Johnson started to run into the NFL stratosphere, breaking the 2,000-yard mark

"Houston – The Texans have been the 'team of the future' for about three years now, much like the Cardinals were earlier this decade. If they don't break through this season, I fear they always will be. But they've got a chance to do that with an improving defense to complement Andre Johnson and Steve Slaton. QB Matt Schaub staying upright is paramount."

Schaub stayed upright and led the entire NFL in passing yards and the Texans had their first winning season. But they still can't beat the Colts and won't break through until they do.

"AFC WEST

Oakland – Hey, somebody's got to finish second. (Of course, 'second' could be 6-10.) If Richard Seymour decides to show up, the Raiders' defense becomes not all that bad, but the offense still needs a lot of work and/or talent."

I'm going to come out and say it: JaMarcus Russell is the worst No. 1 overall pick since the merger. Only the Rams scored fewer points. And they still won five games! Imagine if they'd kept Jeff Garcia. The Raiders did benefit from the Patriots' miscalculation and Seymour made a decent defense good.

"Denver – Understand this: I like Kyle Orton. I thought he should have been starting in Chicago all along over Rex and I think he's a guy who can succeed in this league in the right set of circumstances. That said, there is no scenario where I'd rather have him than Jay Cutler. Throw in Brandon Marshall's rampant jackassery and a deceptively brutal schedule – seriously, take a good look at that thing – and this could be catastrophic."

It started out well but absolutely went to pot in the second half of the season. Kind of like last year. Orton was OK. Marshall had his moments (beating Dallas by himself; 21 catches against the Colts) but I don't believe he's long for the Broncos.

FINAL RANKINGS

TOP 4
1. New Orleans (13-3) - That Super Bowl celebration will never be topped. I mean, EVER
2. Indianapolis (14-2) - Poised for another run... we think
3. Minnesota (12-4) - And the Brett Favre watch begins anew
4. (tie) San Diego (13-3) - It's Rivers' team now
4. (tie) N.Y. Jets (9-7) - Forging a new identity?

BOTTOM 4
29. Tampa Bay (3-13) – Trudging forward towards... respectability, I'd imagine
30. Kansas City (4-12) – Transformation into Patriots West continues
31. Detroit (2-14) – At least they don't need a quarterback
32. St. Louis (1-15) – Were actually sold. No, REALLY


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Listening to: Shinedown - Sound Of Madness
via FoxyTunes