NFC EAST
(3) Philadelphia: The curious case of DeSean Jackson may never truly be solved, and it remains to be seen how much his departure will hurt Nick Foles' development. The idea here seems to be that this team is counting on its young players to take some big steps forward, especially on a defense that was lacking at times last year.
Washington: Jackson ended up here, as unceremoniously cast-off Eagles tend to do. This offense could be explosive, but a new coach, a quarterback who seems to be fighting himself and a defense that wasn't good last year and didn't get any better all make it hard for me to consider them a serious challenger.
N.Y. Giants: I'd normally trust the G-Men to figure it out after a disastrous season like last year's, but their free-agent spending spree only highlighted the fact that they've had some truly terrible drafts over the last four to five years. Their current inability to adapt to their new offense has them facing some of the same questions Washington is.
Dallas: Tony Romo continues to simultaneously not be the Cowboys' biggest problem and also not be the solution. Here's their biggest problem: One of the worst defenses of all time lost its three best players. How do you think that movie's gonna end?
NFC NORTH
(4) Green Bay: Even despite losing Aaron Rodgers for a period down the stretch last year, the Packers still won the division. If he and everyone else can stay healthy -- and that's been an... issue the last few years -- a repeat, at minimum, is highly likely.
(5) Chicago: Meanwhile, the Bears lost the division despite Josh McCown playing the best football a McCown has ever played while replacing an injured Jay Cutler. There are few better offenses in the league, and the defense got some badly-needed reinforcements.
Detroit: And the Lions absolutely lost the division with a disastrous collapse that led to a coaching change. Of course, they then ignored their defensive needs in the draft and picked a tight end instead to add to an already explosive offense.
Minnesota: Another new coach here as a bad (and badly handled) quarterback situation doomed Leslie Frazier and this team. Matt Cassel finally emerged as the starter, and he does have an 11-win season under his belt, so there's that.
NFC SOUTH
(2) New Orleans: You already know about the offense. But this defense turning into a bloodthirsty mob was the best coaching job Rob Ryan's ever done. And since nobody's ever won this division in back-to-back years...
(6) Atlanta: First, they'll all be healthy this year. (Well, except Sam Baker, but he's not very good anyway.) Second, I feel like people are forgetting how good they were in previous recent years before everyone got hurt. Third, they can make some hay early with the way the schedule falls.
Tampa Bay: The short national nightmare is over as Lovie Smith takes over for the overmatched and detested Greg Schiano. The Bucs have talent, but if you're picking them as a deep playoff run candidate, you're asking me to accept that what Josh McCown did last season is sustainable, and I just can't drink that Kool-Aid.
Carolina: Poor Cam Newton. He finally breaks through with a division title and playoff appearance and he loses his left tackle and all of his receivers. And since nobody's ever won this division in back-to-back years...
NFC WEST
(1) Seattle: The champs are young and ferocious, and Pete Carroll will keep them hungry. They may not have the depth they had last year, but the offense has room to improve and evolve, and they play in a damn sonic fortress.
San Francisco: I... I don't have a good feeling about this. Sure they added needed depth at receiver, but a tough schedule and a defense decimated by injuries and absences for... other reasons is giving me pause. And God help them if anything happens to Kaepernick.
Arizona: This defense has also taken some hits, losing Darnell Dockett to injury and Daryl Washington to suspension. Carson Palmer secretly had a good year last year. But how long can he hold up?
St. Louis: The Rams' pass rush should be terrifying again this season. But any shot they had to make waves in the NFL's toughest division went down when Sam Bradford did. Another concern is their receiving corps, which they have invested a lot of resources in and gotten little out of.
AFC EAST
(3) New England: Still the class of this division by far, the Pats have two major questions to answer: One, has Revis Island truly relocated to Foxborough? And two, if so, can he elevate the defense to where it needs to be to get back to the Super Bowl?
N.Y. Jets: Rex Ryan did God's work getting eight wins out of a badly outmanned Jets team. They made some offensive upgrades, but can Geno Smith get better? And can they get anything out of their cornerbacks?
Buffalo: It seems like no matter how much promising young talent the Bills bring in, they can't get any traction. Rookie WR Sammy Watkins appears to be the real deal, but E.J. Manuel needs to stay healthy and contribute.
Miami: The Dolphins made headlines for all the wrong reasons last year, so much so that their collapse in the last two weeks that cost them a playoff berth was all but forgotten. A few things were blown up to repair the damage, but what's this roster's true potential?
AFC NORTH
(4) Cincinnati: There are very few things wrong with the Bengals in the regular season. Their offense is balanced and can be explosive, the defense is stout, and they're far and away the most talented team in this division. Then the playoffs come, and...
Baltimore: Two years removed from a Super Bowl win, the Ravens seem better equipped for success now than after last season's gutting of the roster led to a pretty bad hangover. Lots of issues remain, however, including who's going to run the ball.
Pittsburgh: The Steelers seem to be having an identity crisis. They don't have a No. 2 receiver, their offensive line is a patchwork of young and old and hits and misses, and their defense is a year older across the board and possibly also a year worse. This season feels like somebody's last stand, but I'm not sure whose.
Cleveland: The Browns knew their best player could be facing a year-long suspension and not only didn't draft a replacement, but traded down to select a cornerback they didn't need. They downgraded at safety from T.J. Ward to Donte Whitner. They drafted Johnny Manziel, who was so not the least bit better than Brian Hoyer that they signed Rex Grossman. Can these guys do anything right?
AFC SOUTH
(2) Indianapolis: I mean, I'd take the Colts over everyone in the AFC North. This won't even be close, and yet it's a team that hasn't reached its full potential yet. Andrew Luck can get better. The defense can get better. And if they get anything even remotely resembling a running game from anyone, look out.
Tennessee: Jake Locker was on his way to his best season when he got hurt last year. Ken Whisenhunt takes over as head coach, but he's clashed with quarterbacks in the past -- is he the guy who can help Locker become the guy?
Houston: I'd feel better about this team's chances for a rebound after a disastrous 2013 season if the quarterback situation wasn't the worst in the league. Whatever gains they make will be led by the defense, where the combination of J.J Watt and Jadaveon Clowney up front could be downright terrifying for opponents.
Jacksonville: Is Blake Bortles the next Blaine Gabbert? The Jags had better hope not. Chad Henne will hold down this poorly-constructed fort in the interim. A lot more talent is needed here.
AFC WEST
(1) Denver: On offense, the Broncos swapped out parts (Emmanuel Sanders for Eric Decker; Montee Ball for Knowshon Moreno). On defense, they went big, adding Ward and Aquib Talib to help their secondary, and snapping up DeMarcus Ware for a pass-rush boost. Plus they've still got that Peyton Manning guy.
(5) San Diego: A late-season surge and a Philip Rivers revival got the Chargers into the playoffs.
Keeping their progress going forward will depend on the defense's improvement. Keep anal eye on TE Ladarius Green, Antonio Gates's heir apparent.
(6) Kansas City: The Chiefs seemed to wear down as the season went on and teams figured out how to slow down their pass rush. They have a blend of minor issues (CB depth, WR depth) but nothing that should cost them dearly in a down AFC.
Oakland: Pray that Derek Carr avoids the fate of his older brother, who also started as a rookie and got beaten up so badly he never really recovered. A relatively sever overhaul will lead to continuity issues, which will lead to another disappointing year.
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Sunday, September 7, 2014
Sunday, October 14, 2012
By The Pigskin Of Our Teeth, Week 5: The Weekly Slog
This is a surprisingly crisp and pass-happy drive to start for the Rams. Also a successful one. And the Cardinals did a good job trying to counter but fell short. This could be interesting. Boy, this game's pace has slowed dramatically from what we saw at the start. Kolb's getting crushed out there. CRUSHED. Seriously, who's the Cardinals' other backup? Because he may not survive. Uh-oh, Amendola's down and he's not happy. This could complicate things. And now nothing's happening. It's become a punting contest. Well, at least the Rams can run the ball. I guess this would be a good time to say that given what the NFL wants to accomplish with al of these Thursday night games, concentrating on division matchups like this one is probably the best way to go. Because let's be honest: If this were, say, Chiefs-Buccaneers, absolutely nobody would be watching. At least a division game you can sell sort of. Oh, the Rams scored again. On a pass, no less. This one's over. And so is Ryan Williams. The Cardinals were trying to do what, exactly, at the end? (Rams 17, Cardinals 3)
Signal Finder: PHI @ PIT, CLE @ NYG, MIA @ CIN (end), GB @ IND (end), DEN @ NE
This Week's Game That Shouldn't Have Been This Close: We are five minutes in and the Browns are up 14-0 and that weird stat about how they've beaten four straight reigning Super Bowl winners is popping up in everyone's heads. Weeden just gave that one away. Wow, he's not good. Biases aside, I'm not a fan of the salsa dance. This is escalating into what we expected. OK, there's no way that's legal. That's what I thought. And of course the next pass goes into double coverage and gets intercepted. Wait, Bradshaw has 200 yards?
Not good. Not good for anyone involved. (Giants 41, Browns 27)
Oh, we're already back to doing this, Mike? This wasn't going to be easy anyway despite the Steelers' lackluster start — they've still got too many guys who just know what they're doing, and some of them just got back. The Steelers don't look much better. This is awful. Simply awful. Vick can't hold on to the ball and the Steelers can't get out of their own way. Oh, and it looks like Polamalu reinjured himself. The Eagles haven't gotten to Ben at all. They're not even getting pressure. Did Rodgers-Cromartie just throw Antonio Brown's shoe to the sideline? This is hard to watch even without a rooting interest. When did the Steelers turn into the Raiders with all of these penalties? And McCoy walks right in. This is... questionable. (And by "this", I mean the challenge, the spot, and the decision to go for it on 4th down.) Got it! Good second effort. Well, they went for it last time, so you'd think they'd have to here... and it works again! How... how does the same enterprise produce a first half like that and then a drive like this? It's baffling. That's at least the third one Wallace has let slip out of his hands. That's a big first down. Getting Mendenhall out of bounds will help, but not much. The Eagles simply cannot get a stop for some reason — that's another big first down. Of course, now I'm not sure why the Steelers aren't sitting on the clock more. Ah, there we go. This isn't a lock with the weather and Shaun Suisham's inherent untrustworthiness. Also, which end of the field is this? And there it is.
That was... disappointing. (Steelers 16, Eagles 14)
And now off to The House That Peyton Built AND WE HAVE A DEVELOPING SITUATION. Big run for the Packers by whoever that was. That didn't take long and it never does if it doesn't have to. The two-point attempt... does not succeed. All right, rook; here it is. Notice that Luck's only thrown to two guys: Wayne, who's been around for 13 years, and Fleener, who was Luck's tight end at Stanford. And I have to say it — this is why there was so much hype. That's the longest run by a Colts quarterback in about 25 years. Touchdown! Wayne is massive. Is this enough time for the Pack? It might be... ick. Crosby missed that like Gostkowski missed against the Cardinals. And suddenly the Packers have Cause For Concern. CHUCKSTRONG. (Colts 30, Packers 27)
(49ers 45, Bills 3)
So, this last drive by the Chargers... didn't we see this last Sunday night? Also, enjoy the record, Drew; Brady's literally right behind you. (Saints 31, Chargers 24)
That first Texans drive was masterful. I think J.J. Watt just blocked a Carmelo Anthony three-pointer. Sweet throw by Sanchez to... Jeff Cumberland? Should the fake punt have worked twice in three weeks? This is what film study's for. Maybe the Jets should try McKnight at wide receiver full-time. I'm serious. He clearly has big-play ability but he hasn't been able to do it consistently at running back, but he needs opportunities and Lord knows the Jets need to use everything they've got. Sanchez is bad, Greene is bad, the offensive line is bad. And here's a more "out-there" suggestion:
Meanwhile, if the Texans have a pronounced weakness, it's that their non-Andre Johnson wide receivers are pretty pedestrian. Owen Daniels becoming the Owen Daniels of a few years ago might help. I'm not even gonna be mad about the Jets punting from the Houston 40 with 9 1/2 minutes left. It was 4th and 15. You think they're getting 15 yards? Please. And now this is one of the most convoluted two-minute drills you will ever see. Say "Watt" again! SAY "WATT" AGAIN!!! Well, that's that. You know it's bad when you're claiming moral victories in front of live microphones. (Texans 23, Jets 17)
RANKINGS
TOP 4:
1. Houston (5-0) — Probably should have been easier than it was
2. Atlanta (5-0) — See above
3. San Francisco (4-1) — Once-inexplicable loss to Vikings suddenly doesn't look so bad
4. Baltimore (4-1) — Playing down to the competition on the road again, I see
BOTTOM 4:
29. Jacksonville (1-4) — Charles Tillman is still running
30. Buffalo (2-3) — Not getting remotely close to what they paid for
31. Cleveland (0-5) — Even the good bounces aren't good
32. Kansas City (1-4) — Hey Chiefs fans: You know the next man up is Brady Quinn, right?
Signal Finder: PHI @ PIT, CLE @ NYG, MIA @ CIN (end), GB @ IND (end), DEN @ NE
This Week's Game That Shouldn't Have Been This Close: We are five minutes in and the Browns are up 14-0 and that weird stat about how they've beaten four straight reigning Super Bowl winners is popping up in everyone's heads. Weeden just gave that one away. Wow, he's not good. Biases aside, I'm not a fan of the salsa dance. This is escalating into what we expected. OK, there's no way that's legal. That's what I thought. And of course the next pass goes into double coverage and gets intercepted. Wait, Bradshaw has 200 yards?
Traded for Bradshaw last week. Kept him on my bench this week. He scored 32 points. WHY DO THE FANTASY FOOTBALL GODS HATE ME????
— alisonhaislip (@alisonhaislip) October 7, 2012
Not good. Not good for anyone involved. (Giants 41, Browns 27)
Oh, we're already back to doing this, Mike? This wasn't going to be easy anyway despite the Steelers' lackluster start — they've still got too many guys who just know what they're doing, and some of them just got back. The Steelers don't look much better. This is awful. Simply awful. Vick can't hold on to the ball and the Steelers can't get out of their own way. Oh, and it looks like Polamalu reinjured himself. The Eagles haven't gotten to Ben at all. They're not even getting pressure. Did Rodgers-Cromartie just throw Antonio Brown's shoe to the sideline? This is hard to watch even without a rooting interest. When did the Steelers turn into the Raiders with all of these penalties? And McCoy walks right in. This is... questionable. (And by "this", I mean the challenge, the spot, and the decision to go for it on 4th down.) Got it! Good second effort. Well, they went for it last time, so you'd think they'd have to here... and it works again! How... how does the same enterprise produce a first half like that and then a drive like this? It's baffling. That's at least the third one Wallace has let slip out of his hands. That's a big first down. Getting Mendenhall out of bounds will help, but not much. The Eagles simply cannot get a stop for some reason — that's another big first down. Of course, now I'm not sure why the Steelers aren't sitting on the clock more. Ah, there we go. This isn't a lock with the weather and Shaun Suisham's inherent untrustworthiness. Also, which end of the field is this? And there it is.
Yup. RT @wingoz: and The Steelers just Eagle-d the Eagles.
— Andrew Brandt (@adbrandt) October 7, 2012
That was... disappointing. (Steelers 16, Eagles 14)
And now off to The House That Peyton Built AND WE HAVE A DEVELOPING SITUATION. Big run for the Packers by whoever that was. That didn't take long and it never does if it doesn't have to. The two-point attempt... does not succeed. All right, rook; here it is. Notice that Luck's only thrown to two guys: Wayne, who's been around for 13 years, and Fleener, who was Luck's tight end at Stanford. And I have to say it — this is why there was so much hype. That's the longest run by a Colts quarterback in about 25 years. Touchdown! Wayne is massive. Is this enough time for the Pack? It might be... ick. Crosby missed that like Gostkowski missed against the Cardinals. And suddenly the Packers have Cause For Concern. CHUCKSTRONG. (Colts 30, Packers 27)
What's weird is I bet there is a Bills fan right now saying, "don't give up. I was there for Frank Reich. I've seen crazier things happen."
— Zach Harper (@talkhoops) October 7, 2012
(49ers 45, Bills 3)
So, this last drive by the Chargers... didn't we see this last Sunday night? Also, enjoy the record, Drew; Brady's literally right behind you. (Saints 31, Chargers 24)
That first Texans drive was masterful. I think J.J. Watt just blocked a Carmelo Anthony three-pointer. Sweet throw by Sanchez to... Jeff Cumberland? Should the fake punt have worked twice in three weeks? This is what film study's for. Maybe the Jets should try McKnight at wide receiver full-time. I'm serious. He clearly has big-play ability but he hasn't been able to do it consistently at running back, but he needs opportunities and Lord knows the Jets need to use everything they've got. Sanchez is bad, Greene is bad, the offensive line is bad. And here's a more "out-there" suggestion:
Jets Offense has 7 TD's this season... Bears Defense has 5 TD's. start Tebow? Trade for Briggs and start him!!
— mark schlereth (@markschlereth) October 9, 2012
Meanwhile, if the Texans have a pronounced weakness, it's that their non-Andre Johnson wide receivers are pretty pedestrian. Owen Daniels becoming the Owen Daniels of a few years ago might help. I'm not even gonna be mad about the Jets punting from the Houston 40 with 9 1/2 minutes left. It was 4th and 15. You think they're getting 15 yards? Please. And now this is one of the most convoluted two-minute drills you will ever see. Say "Watt" again! SAY "WATT" AGAIN!!! Well, that's that. You know it's bad when you're claiming moral victories in front of live microphones. (Texans 23, Jets 17)
RANKINGS
TOP 4:
1. Houston (5-0) — Probably should have been easier than it was
2. Atlanta (5-0) — See above
3. San Francisco (4-1) — Once-inexplicable loss to Vikings suddenly doesn't look so bad
4. Baltimore (4-1) — Playing down to the competition on the road again, I see
BOTTOM 4:
29. Jacksonville (1-4) — Charles Tillman is still running
30. Buffalo (2-3) — Not getting remotely close to what they paid for
31. Cleveland (0-5) — Even the good bounces aren't good
32. Kansas City (1-4) — Hey Chiefs fans: You know the next man up is Brady Quinn, right?
Friday, October 5, 2012
By The Pigskin Of Our Teeth, Week 4: Return to Sender
Ladies and gentlemen, put your hands together for the REAL NFL OFFICIALS! I predict this honeymoon ends in the first half. I'm not sure how much better Weeden looks tonight than he did in the opener, but he's gotten absolutely no help from his receivers, who were already the worst group in the league before Cribbs went down (on a clean hit, BTW). Despite that, this game remains uncomfortably close, even for a rivalry game. Let me note right off the bat how smoothly this game has been run. The officials are in control, they know the rules, they're not taking any more time than they need to, and they're not taking any crap from the players or coaches. Also, this rain. Well that lasted longer than I thought. "At least we're booing professionals." Tucker finally misses... and then Weeden gives the Ravens those points back and then some. These receivers are awful. I can't overstate this. And yet here they are with another chance after the roughing call and... no. (Ravens 23, Browns 16)
Signal Finder: SF @ NYJ, CAR @ ATL (end), NE @ BUF, NO @ GB
Watching Kaepernick on that quarterback pitch makes me realize I have no idea how fast Tebow can actually run. This Jets offense is ponderous. Where's the speed? Where's the talent? Where's the creativity? Honestly, at this point 17 might be enough. Wait, what? Holmes just went down and inexplicably flipped the ball into the air and it got returned for a touchdown. He's definitely hurt, but what happened there? And things get worse after the Jets fail to block one guy rushing a punt. (49ers 34, Jets 0)
Welcome to Atlanta, where the contest is actually competitive. I did not know those wrinkles in the "spotting the ball after a fumble" rules. Now what do the Panthers do? They may be at the spot on the field where going for it would be worth it - even if they don't get it, the Falcons will still need to get a first down before thinking about a field goal. Honestly, I can go either way on this. That's a good punt. That was immediately negated. From what little I've seen of this game the Falcons threw to that left side a lot. Then nobody on Carolina bothered covering Douglas. How do you not park a guy over there? Put it on the board. (Falcons 30, Panthers 28)
Pereira on the Sproles fumble on the kickoff (which McCarthy couldn't challenge because he wasted one in the first quarter)
Seriously, I don't think I'd ever use a challenge in the first half. Now that all scoring plays are reviewed, I'm not sure there's ever a need to. So here we go. The Saints will have to use every second on this clock to win this game because they're so bad defensively that the Packers only need about 30 seconds to score on them if they have to. That's definitely too much time. What? Offensive holding? So they'll kick it again. He missed? Wow. It is not the Saints' year. Also, I expected these scores to be higher. Maybe not West Virginia-Baylor high, but... somehow more than this. (Packers 28, Saints 27)
See, that's how the Eagles normally lose to the Cardinals. (Cardinals 24, Dolphins 21, OT)
(Redskins 24, Buccaneers 22)
Dawkins led them out of the tunnel! Awesome. Man, both of these defensive lines are just doing whatever they feel like. It's been said before: If the running game doesn't work early, Andy will abandon it at the drop of a hat. It's subtle, but noticeable: the Eagles have shortened their offense. Shorter dropbacks for Vick, shorter passes, shorter routes. And they're actually using McCoy in the passing game, because even if the running game isn't working they need to get the ball in his hands somehow. Meanwhile, they're still getting tons of pressure on Eli (but haven't sacked him yet) and the Giants' receivers seem to be jumping a lot to make catches. Remember what I said earlier about never using a challenge in the first half? I mean, I initially thought Jackson caught it, and they got the call right in the end, but still. The prospects of anyone scoring in the game remain quite low. Things seem to be shifting in the second quarter as both offensive lines have tightened up somewhat. I think Nnamdi got poked in the eye - it looks like they're giving him eye drops on the sideline. That was easy enough. Jackson left two guys behind on that one. Kickoff returns have kept the Giants in this thing. Hey, look, the Eagles can run the ball. Did Eli drop that snap? That was crazy.Nice pick, DRC. Now why did you run it out of the end zone? That graphic about McCoy running on the Giants in the fourth quarter is becoming prescient. The Giants have lost the ability to contain the run game. McCoy just turned the corner on Osi like nobody's business, and Vick's gotten some free runs tonight as well. And once again poor playcalling down by the goal line leaves points on the field. I'm not sure what it means that the two best cornerbacks on the field tonight have been Prince Amukamura and Brandon Hughes. I have a bad feeling about this. Are they going to pass interfere themselves to a loss? (Both were the right calls, BTW. You could justify the one on Rodgers-Cromartie being offsetting because his facemask did get grabbed.) And there's another flag. This is ridiculous. Wait, what? Offensive? Oh, well, yeah. The guy almost gave Asomugha a reverse bulldog. I don't know what Collinsworth's carping about; that's as blatant as it gets.
Now the Giants have to kick a 54-yard field goal., but Tynes hasn't missed all year. Oops. Hooked it! What? Time out? Who- DEAR GOD ANDY WHAT ARE YOU DOING? And while I'm processing that, Coughlin decides to just kick it again and not try to get closer even though he has a down and time and Tynes already missed. Seriously, a five-yard out to the sideline and the Giants win. Oh, well, they'll probably win anyway.
HE MISSED AGAIN?!?!?!?
Just as I was thinking "Nothing insane has happened yet. That usually means a Giants win." Also, the only people who didn't completely botch that last drive... were the officials. Also also, look, Ma, no turnovers! And in my lifetime, of all of the crazy things that have happened in this rivalry, I think every single one of them has gone in the Eagles' favor. (Eagles 19, Giants 17)
This game is starting off like Eagles-Giants. Or, more dreadfully, Browns-Ravens. Or maybe I have those backwards? Whatever. Lot of Bears fans here tonight. Finally, some action. Dez Bryant isn't helping his own case (did he even see that?) and the Bears have bottled up the running game because the Cowboys' offensive line is bad. Way to salvage the first half there. And now it's all gone to hell. It's amazing how Romo's the one who's thrown four picks and Dez Bryant is arguably having a worse night. Wait, never mind.
Thanks for pitching in at the end, Orton! Yeah. The Bears made the Cowboys' offense look really bad tonight, which is quite a feat since it hasn't looked all that good except for the opener. (Bears 34, Cowboys 18)
RANKINGS
TOP 4:
1. Houston (4-0) - Taking care of business
2. Atlanta (4-0) - A few hiccups, but still unbeaten
3. San Francisco (3-1) - Repeating the formula
4. Baltimore (3-1) - Survived a few narrow escapes
BOTTOM 4:
29. Jacksonville (1-3) - Gabbert still isn't good
30. New Orleans (0-4) - Headed for disaster?
31. Cleveland (0-4) - Can't catch a break... or anything else, really
32. Kansas City (1-3) - You know it's bad when Brady Quinn's name is being mentioned
Signal Finder: SF @ NYJ, CAR @ ATL (end), NE @ BUF, NO @ GB
Watching Kaepernick on that quarterback pitch makes me realize I have no idea how fast Tebow can actually run. This Jets offense is ponderous. Where's the speed? Where's the talent? Where's the creativity? Honestly, at this point 17 might be enough. Wait, what? Holmes just went down and inexplicably flipped the ball into the air and it got returned for a touchdown. He's definitely hurt, but what happened there? And things get worse after the Jets fail to block one guy rushing a punt. (49ers 34, Jets 0)
So sad when your team is losing so bad the network switches to another game. #gojets
— Jon Favreau (@Jon_Favreau) September 30, 2012
Welcome to Atlanta, where the contest is actually competitive. I did not know those wrinkles in the "spotting the ball after a fumble" rules. Now what do the Panthers do? They may be at the spot on the field where going for it would be worth it - even if they don't get it, the Falcons will still need to get a first down before thinking about a field goal. Honestly, I can go either way on this. That's a good punt. That was immediately negated. From what little I've seen of this game the Falcons threw to that left side a lot. Then nobody on Carolina bothered covering Douglas. How do you not park a guy over there? Put it on the board. (Falcons 30, Panthers 28)
Pereira on the Sproles fumble on the kickoff (which McCarthy couldn't challenge because he wasted one in the first quarter)
Not pretty in GB even with a challenge that wouldn't have been overturned but it doesn't excuse the fact it was a bad call.
— Mike Pereira (@MikePereira) September 30, 2012
Seriously, I don't think I'd ever use a challenge in the first half. Now that all scoring plays are reviewed, I'm not sure there's ever a need to. So here we go. The Saints will have to use every second on this clock to win this game because they're so bad defensively that the Packers only need about 30 seconds to score on them if they have to. That's definitely too much time. What? Offensive holding? So they'll kick it again. He missed? Wow. It is not the Saints' year. Also, I expected these scores to be higher. Maybe not West Virginia-Baylor high, but... somehow more than this. (Packers 28, Saints 27)
See, that's how the Eagles normally lose to the Cardinals. (Cardinals 24, Dolphins 21, OT)
Billy Cundiff just saved his job and a game.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 30, 2012
(Redskins 24, Buccaneers 22)
Dawkins led them out of the tunnel! Awesome. Man, both of these defensive lines are just doing whatever they feel like. It's been said before: If the running game doesn't work early, Andy will abandon it at the drop of a hat. It's subtle, but noticeable: the Eagles have shortened their offense. Shorter dropbacks for Vick, shorter passes, shorter routes. And they're actually using McCoy in the passing game, because even if the running game isn't working they need to get the ball in his hands somehow. Meanwhile, they're still getting tons of pressure on Eli (but haven't sacked him yet) and the Giants' receivers seem to be jumping a lot to make catches. Remember what I said earlier about never using a challenge in the first half? I mean, I initially thought Jackson caught it, and they got the call right in the end, but still. The prospects of anyone scoring in the game remain quite low. Things seem to be shifting in the second quarter as both offensive lines have tightened up somewhat. I think Nnamdi got poked in the eye - it looks like they're giving him eye drops on the sideline. That was easy enough. Jackson left two guys behind on that one. Kickoff returns have kept the Giants in this thing. Hey, look, the Eagles can run the ball. Did Eli drop that snap? That was crazy.Nice pick, DRC. Now why did you run it out of the end zone? That graphic about McCoy running on the Giants in the fourth quarter is becoming prescient. The Giants have lost the ability to contain the run game. McCoy just turned the corner on Osi like nobody's business, and Vick's gotten some free runs tonight as well. And once again poor playcalling down by the goal line leaves points on the field. I'm not sure what it means that the two best cornerbacks on the field tonight have been Prince Amukamura and Brandon Hughes. I have a bad feeling about this. Are they going to pass interfere themselves to a loss? (Both were the right calls, BTW. You could justify the one on Rodgers-Cromartie being offsetting because his facemask did get grabbed.) And there's another flag. This is ridiculous. Wait, what? Offensive? Oh, well, yeah. The guy almost gave Asomugha a reverse bulldog. I don't know what Collinsworth's carping about; that's as blatant as it gets.
You pretty much all think like I do. If you don't call OPI, there would be an uproar. Defender was looking back at the ball. Mugging!
— Mike Pereira (@MikePereira) October 1, 2012
Now the Giants have to kick a 54-yard field goal., but Tynes hasn't missed all year. Oops. Hooked it! What? Time out? Who- DEAR GOD ANDY WHAT ARE YOU DOING? And while I'm processing that, Coughlin decides to just kick it again and not try to get closer even though he has a down and time and Tynes already missed. Seriously, a five-yard out to the sideline and the Giants win. Oh, well, they'll probably win anyway.
HE MISSED AGAIN?!?!?!?
@jfbjr_1 He's 3-1. :) Also Coughlin botched that last series as badly as he did
— Matt Spaulding (@MattSpaulding22) October 1, 2012
Just as I was thinking "Nothing insane has happened yet. That usually means a Giants win." Also, the only people who didn't completely botch that last drive... were the officials. Also also, look, Ma, no turnovers! And in my lifetime, of all of the crazy things that have happened in this rivalry, I think every single one of them has gone in the Eagles' favor. (Eagles 19, Giants 17)
This game is starting off like Eagles-Giants. Or, more dreadfully, Browns-Ravens. Or maybe I have those backwards? Whatever. Lot of Bears fans here tonight. Finally, some action. Dez Bryant isn't helping his own case (did he even see that?) and the Bears have bottled up the running game because the Cowboys' offensive line is bad. Way to salvage the first half there. And now it's all gone to hell. It's amazing how Romo's the one who's thrown four picks and Dez Bryant is arguably having a worse night. Wait, never mind.
It's official.. Tony Romo is the only player with multiple 5-interception games on Monday Night Football.
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 2, 2012
Thanks for pitching in at the end, Orton! Yeah. The Bears made the Cowboys' offense look really bad tonight, which is quite a feat since it hasn't looked all that good except for the opener. (Bears 34, Cowboys 18)
RANKINGS
TOP 4:
1. Houston (4-0) - Taking care of business
2. Atlanta (4-0) - A few hiccups, but still unbeaten
3. San Francisco (3-1) - Repeating the formula
4. Baltimore (3-1) - Survived a few narrow escapes
BOTTOM 4:
29. Jacksonville (1-3) - Gabbert still isn't good
30. New Orleans (0-4) - Headed for disaster?
31. Cleveland (0-4) - Can't catch a break... or anything else, really
32. Kansas City (1-3) - You know it's bad when Brady Quinn's name is being mentioned
Thursday, September 27, 2012
By The Pigskin Of Our Teeth, Week 3: Damaged Collateral
Well, looks like the Giants have come out in "Seriously, Do Not Trifle With Us" mode tonight. Giants fans have spent the last two years talking about Ramses Barden the same way Cowboys fans used to talk about Miles Austin. We're also seeing why the option will never work full-time in the NFL: Defenses are too fast. Even a quarterback as big and athletic as Newton can't run it against NFL-caliber defenders. The Giants are just doing whatever they feel like. This was over long before it ended. (Giants 36, Panthers 7)
Signal Finder: NYJ @ BUF, PHI @ ARZ, PIT @ OAK
"To convey what happened in the fourth quarter in Tennessee would require a dry-erase board, a fully loaded Sharpie, and a mastery of the dark arts." - Sean Fennessey, Grantland. Also, Jim Schwartz has done a lot to help turn the Lions around, but they should have actually gone for it at the end. (Titans 44, Lions 41, OT)
I'm Sorry You Had To See That: Whoa! Tebow on the punt team actually pays off! Why did no one consider this possibility when Rex first mentioned it? Nice pass, Tannehill. This has been an awful game to watch. I mean, it's a slog as it is and the constant slowdowns and stoppages aren't helping matters. And now it's Sanchez's turn to throw a bad interception. Wait, Revis is down? Uh-oh. Oh, no. He wasn't even hit or anything... that's not good. Wait, how did the Jets come back? This game was over and they can't score points. (I had to go to work and the Jets rallied while I was driving.) Hey Dolphins! That NEVER WORKS. And now I have proof. This time it's good! Serves 'em right. (Jets 23, Dolphins 20, OT)
And now, we present the two luckiest teams in the National Football League. The Wildcat is so three years ago, guys. Why hasn't Jackson been returning punts? Anyone? Uncanny. Bounces off DeMeco Ryans's hands right to Michael Floyd for a touchdown. The Eagles' defense can't get a stop on third down and the offensive line can't protect Vick. Their best blocker against the blitz has been McCoy, of all people. I'm having trouble thinking of a receiver in recent years who's burned the Eagles as badly as Fitzgerald has. I don't think even prime Randy Moss torched them on such a consistent basis. It's kind of amazing that the Eagles have played so badly so far and still have a chance to go into halftime down only - oh, look, another turnover. And James Sanders is going to do his James Harrison impression. This thing's actually already over. Take away the fumbled punt return and Johnson had a decent game. Part of me wants them to get Vick out of there for his own personal safety, but they can't put Foles back there because he might actually die. Look, I've seen more than my fair share of bad Eagles losses to the Cardinals, but never like this. They usually happen in Philadelphia, and they're usually not this decisive. (Cardinals 27, Eagles 6)
Remember last week when I asked how the replacements were going to deal with a game with actual bad blood in it? We may be close to finding out. Look, once the quarterback starts to slide, you can't hit him. Simple as that. Also, my "offensive pass interference only gets called once a week" manifesto seems to have been thrown out with the bath water. It occurs to me that the problem with the replacement officials is the same one that I have with current NBA refs: The game's just too fast for them to keep up with. looks closely No, Smith didn't push off on the touchdown catch. I don't even know how he's able to make a touchdown catch with what he's been through in the last 20 or so hours. I see tackling hasn't improved any either - Pitta just ran through two guys there. And the Patriots come right back. This is a good game, guys. There's a reason Brandon Lloyd's played for five teams. It also makes the Welker freezeout make even less sense. Man, between last week and tonight, the Ravens' defense just doesn't look like what it used to be. Deion Branch just got his clock cleaned and still held on. Why go for it there? And why is Rice on the sidelines while you're going for it there? Bizarre. What is going on here? I know McCourty's been bad this game but how is that a penalty? And how is that a penalty? Harbaugh's going berserk. This crowd is united like no other crowd before or since:
And then McCourty gets flagged AGAIN on the final drive! Here we go. It's... is it good? Did that clear the upright? It did? Wow. Kicking is a fickle mistress. Last week, on the road, Tucker hit from 56 and 51 like it was nothing. Here he almost slices a 27-yarder and almost sets off a firestorm.
Someone tell Belichick he can't do that to the officials. Also unnoticed: Flacco outplayed Brady again, at least in the fourth quarter. This time, he got the win to show for it. (Ravens 31, Patriots 30)
Let me finally state this for the record: The Seahawks' new uniforms? AGAINST. Wow, the Seahawks defense is doing to the Packers what the Cardinals did to the Eagles but worse. Eight sacks in one half? That's brutal. Chris Clemons got four of them. No. 31 on Seattle's a safety? That guy's huge. The Packers aren't even trying to run the ball. Good heads-up on spotting that fumble, Jeff Saturday. (Weird to see him not in a Colts uniform, by the way.) One last chance for the Hawks. OH MY GOD. Who caught it? Who's got this thing? Do they both have it? They called it a touchdown! Oh, that's soul crushing. We will need to see this several times and from several angles. The fact that two officials standing right next to each other signaled two different things frightens me. OK, let's see it for a fifth time.
I don't believe what I'm about to say.
They got it wrong.
You'd almost have to script the way this played out: the Sunday night game coming down to a pure judgment call that... well, it looked to me like they got it right, but that put this thing right on the precipice. And one night later, it falls off. Everyone's worst nightmare just came true. Gruden's about to have a heart attack. And yeah, Tate pushed off down in the scrum in the end zone, but that almost never gets called. They still have to kick the extra point, right? Someone needs to come back out onto the field. The Packers are coming back out - I can only assume that they'd have to finish the game on the field in order to file an official protest. It looks like they just picked 11 guys and sent them out there. Cedric Benson's with them and he's a running back. God, if this thing actually gets blocked... nah, it's over, almost 10 minutes after the fact. The underrated lesson for you kids out there: Listen to Tom Jackson. KNOCK IT DOWN! (Seahawks 14, Packers 12)
Unsurprisingly, Twitter was ablaze:
Keep in mind, this guy plays for the Vikings:
John Legend's model girlfriend trolls us:
So would everyone else ever, Mark:
Mike Pereira (former head of NFL officials, now works for FOX) wasn't around Monday night. From his tweets it sounded like he was climbing a mountain on a vision quest or something. Whatever, he was off the grid when all this went down, explaining this exchange:
Then a deal basically got done late Wednesday night. Here's Rachel Nichols again to put a wrap on it:
Signal Finder: NYJ @ BUF, PHI @ ARZ, PIT @ OAK
"To convey what happened in the fourth quarter in Tennessee would require a dry-erase board, a fully loaded Sharpie, and a mastery of the dark arts." - Sean Fennessey, Grantland. Also, Jim Schwartz has done a lot to help turn the Lions around, but they should have actually gone for it at the end. (Titans 44, Lions 41, OT)
I'm Sorry You Had To See That: Whoa! Tebow on the punt team actually pays off! Why did no one consider this possibility when Rex first mentioned it? Nice pass, Tannehill. This has been an awful game to watch. I mean, it's a slog as it is and the constant slowdowns and stoppages aren't helping matters. And now it's Sanchez's turn to throw a bad interception. Wait, Revis is down? Uh-oh. Oh, no. He wasn't even hit or anything... that's not good. Wait, how did the Jets come back? This game was over and they can't score points. (I had to go to work and the Jets rallied while I was driving.) Hey Dolphins! That NEVER WORKS. And now I have proof. This time it's good! Serves 'em right. (Jets 23, Dolphins 20, OT)
That. Is. Ugly. RT @sportslawguy: Not only are the Saints 0-3, but the teams that have beat them are0-6 against everyone else.
— Steve Wyche (@wyche89) September 23, 2012
And now, we present the two luckiest teams in the National Football League. The Wildcat is so three years ago, guys. Why hasn't Jackson been returning punts? Anyone? Uncanny. Bounces off DeMeco Ryans's hands right to Michael Floyd for a touchdown. The Eagles' defense can't get a stop on third down and the offensive line can't protect Vick. Their best blocker against the blitz has been McCoy, of all people. I'm having trouble thinking of a receiver in recent years who's burned the Eagles as badly as Fitzgerald has. I don't think even prime Randy Moss torched them on such a consistent basis. It's kind of amazing that the Eagles have played so badly so far and still have a chance to go into halftime down only - oh, look, another turnover. And James Sanders is going to do his James Harrison impression. This thing's actually already over. Take away the fumbled punt return and Johnson had a decent game. Part of me wants them to get Vick out of there for his own personal safety, but they can't put Foles back there because he might actually die. Look, I've seen more than my fair share of bad Eagles losses to the Cardinals, but never like this. They usually happen in Philadelphia, and they're usually not this decisive. (Cardinals 27, Eagles 6)
Remember last week when I asked how the replacements were going to deal with a game with actual bad blood in it? We may be close to finding out. Look, once the quarterback starts to slide, you can't hit him. Simple as that. Also, my "offensive pass interference only gets called once a week" manifesto seems to have been thrown out with the bath water. It occurs to me that the problem with the replacement officials is the same one that I have with current NBA refs: The game's just too fast for them to keep up with. looks closely No, Smith didn't push off on the touchdown catch. I don't even know how he's able to make a touchdown catch with what he's been through in the last 20 or so hours. I see tackling hasn't improved any either - Pitta just ran through two guys there. And the Patriots come right back. This is a good game, guys. There's a reason Brandon Lloyd's played for five teams. It also makes the Welker freezeout make even less sense. Man, between last week and tonight, the Ravens' defense just doesn't look like what it used to be. Deion Branch just got his clock cleaned and still held on. Why go for it there? And why is Rice on the sidelines while you're going for it there? Bizarre. What is going on here? I know McCourty's been bad this game but how is that a penalty? And how is that a penalty? Harbaugh's going berserk. This crowd is united like no other crowd before or since:
Moment Goodell officially passed Bettman as worst commish: Balt fans loudly chanting "bullshit!" as NBC's announcers mocked his fake refs.
— Bill Simmons (@sportsguy33) September 24, 2012
And then McCourty gets flagged AGAIN on the final drive! Here we go. It's... is it good? Did that clear the upright? It did? Wow. Kicking is a fickle mistress. Last week, on the road, Tucker hit from 56 and 51 like it was nothing. Here he almost slices a 27-yarder and almost sets off a firestorm.
Only in the NFL: whether the ball went between the uprights is reviewable, but whether it was good in where it sailed above uprights is not
— Rachel Nichols (@Rachel__Nichols) September 24, 2012
Someone tell Belichick he can't do that to the officials. Also unnoticed: Flacco outplayed Brady again, at least in the fourth quarter. This time, he got the win to show for it. (Ravens 31, Patriots 30)
Let me finally state this for the record: The Seahawks' new uniforms? AGAINST. Wow, the Seahawks defense is doing to the Packers what the Cardinals did to the Eagles but worse. Eight sacks in one half? That's brutal. Chris Clemons got four of them. No. 31 on Seattle's a safety? That guy's huge. The Packers aren't even trying to run the ball. Good heads-up on spotting that fumble, Jeff Saturday. (Weird to see him not in a Colts uniform, by the way.) One last chance for the Hawks. OH MY GOD. Who caught it? Who's got this thing? Do they both have it? They called it a touchdown! Oh, that's soul crushing. We will need to see this several times and from several angles. The fact that two officials standing right next to each other signaled two different things frightens me. OK, let's see it for a fifth time.
I don't believe what I'm about to say.
They got it wrong.
Well, the officials decided a game.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 25, 2012
You'd almost have to script the way this played out: the Sunday night game coming down to a pure judgment call that... well, it looked to me like they got it right, but that put this thing right on the precipice. And one night later, it falls off. Everyone's worst nightmare just came true. Gruden's about to have a heart attack. And yeah, Tate pushed off down in the scrum in the end zone, but that almost never gets called. They still have to kick the extra point, right? Someone needs to come back out onto the field. The Packers are coming back out - I can only assume that they'd have to finish the game on the field in order to file an official protest. It looks like they just picked 11 guys and sent them out there. Cedric Benson's with them and he's a running back. God, if this thing actually gets blocked... nah, it's over, almost 10 minutes after the fact. The underrated lesson for you kids out there: Listen to Tom Jackson. KNOCK IT DOWN! (Seahawks 14, Packers 12)
Unsurprisingly, Twitter was ablaze:
And... Here's the officiating apocalypse that was 3 weeks coming.
— Bill Simmons (@sportsguy33) September 25, 2012
Keep in mind, this guy plays for the Vikings:
Just saw that catch. Shit just got real for Roger and the replacements.
— Chris Kluwe (@ChrisWarcraft) September 25, 2012
These replacement refs gotta go man!! Packers just got game took from them. I LOVE NFL football to much to see this type of work.
— LeBron James (@KingJames) September 25, 2012
Terrible loss for the Packers, but a great win for organized labor
— Will Bunch (@Will_Bunch) September 25, 2012
What robbery...what a fraud the NFL just perpetrated on the Green Bay Packers...
— Michael Wilbon (@RealMikeWilbon) September 25, 2012
John Legend's model girlfriend trolls us:
k just got off the phone with the ref. i couldn't really hear...through his sobbing and all, but he says he is sorry guys
— christine teigen (@chrissyteigen) September 25, 2012
So would everyone else ever, Mark:
I would love to see what my reaction would be if a Mavs game ended like #MNF. #Expensive #NBAtime
— Mark Cuban (@mcuban) September 25, 2012
I've just learned what it would've been like if Twitter was around for the tuck rule.
— Michael David Smith (@MichaelDavSmith) September 25, 2012
We need to start a fund for @tjlang70 . Dat dude gonna get fined to the moon! #RogerGoodellSucks
— Not Frank Gore (@Frank_Gore) September 25, 2012
So what do we call last night's game? The Inaccurate Reception? The Fail Mary? Any ideas...?
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 25, 2012
SurveyUSA poll: a plurality of Seahawks fans thought it was an interception. bit.ly/QTxha0
— Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) September 26, 2012
Mike Pereira (former head of NFL officials, now works for FOX) wasn't around Monday night. From his tweets it sounded like he was climbing a mountain on a vision quest or something. Whatever, he was off the grid when all this went down, explaining this exchange:
It's ok. Nothing happened while you were gone RT @mikepereira I really do feel bad about being out of touch this week.
— J.A. Adande (@jadande) September 26, 2012
Then a deal basically got done late Wednesday night. Here's Rachel Nichols again to put a wrap on it:
Okay, officials lockout done & so am I - on my way home now. If anyone asks me to cover the NHL lockout, I'm moving to a country without ice
— Rachel Nichols (@Rachel__Nichols) September 27, 2012
Saturday, September 22, 2012
By The Pigskin Of Our Teeth, Week 2: Presence of Malice
The tundra may not be frozen yet, but it is a slog out there. Literally nothing has happened in the first quarter except for an almost-muffed punt. CHICANERY~~~~!!!! Though this will not cancel out the other 4th and 26, it was cool all the same. Bad Jay Cutler is a lot like Bad Eli Manning or Bad Tony Romo, except completely unlikable under any and all circumstances. I don't know if it's the rep he deserves, but it's the rep he's got. Meanwhile, Brandon Marshall's done absolutely nothing tonight and J'Marcus Webb maybe the worst offensive lineman in football not named Wayne Hunter. MORE INTERCEPTIONS.
What's ironic about that is that Cutler and DeAngelo Hall had a similar exchange after Hall picked him off four times, which sums both of them up fairly accurately. (Packers 23, Bears 10)
Signal Finder: BAL @ PHI, NYJ @ PIT, WSH @ STL
PROTECT THE FOOTBALL. THAT GOES FOR BOTH OF YOU. Forget Jason Peters — King Dunlap is making me miss Winston Justice. The Ravens abandoned the hurry-up pretty quickly for whatever reason. This game is getting chippy. Oh, COME ON. Horrible red zone turnovers? Yep, just like last year. (How about Vick practically jumping on Ray Lewis' back to drag him down?) Did Celek just clear Ed Reed? Oh, now Maclin's down? The Eagles are losing players like the Giants apparently are. I'm looking at this reverse angle on the replay and Vick's across the 5, but it's still not a first down. Hey, the Ravens are running the ball again. And then they pass on 3rd and 2? Is Andy calling the Ravens' plays? It doesn't make sense, especially since Rice gashed them a couple of times in the first half. That's on Celek. Or off Celek, as the case may be. The one time the Ravens put a man on him and the ball magically ends up in Reed's hands. Uncanny. 56 and 51 without breaking a sweat? Where'd the Ravens find this kid? Sean Considine's still in the league? The refs have been blowing ball spots all game long. Additionally, offensive holding is apparently now 15 yards. Wait... why are we doing the two-minute warning again? Nobody stopped the clock, did they?
I'm glad I was in the car when the not-even-close-to-a-fumble happened, because somebody would have had to call the cops if that didn't get overturned. It also wasn't intentional grounding because Vick was clearly hit as he threw, changing the direction of the ball. (How they got that part right is one of the great unsolved mysteries of the universe.) And touchdown! This team's going to take 10 years off my life. Cue the Ravens whining about the refs in 3... 2... 1... (Eagles 24, Ravens 23)
Giants fans probably feel the same way Eagles fans felt last week. You'll take it, but you're not happy about it. (Giants 41, Buccaneers 34)
Meanwhile, this happened:
So let's see... the Bills did to the Chiefs what the Jets did to them last week. That means the Saints are due to catch another beatdown. The way their defense has played so far, that's entirely possible. (Panthers 35, Saints 27; Bills 35, Chiefs 17)
Oh, God, the last minute or so of Cardinals-Patriots was a master class in incompetence, and unusually, most of it was committed by the Patriots. First there's the fumble itself, with Ryan Williams holding the ball like an egg and watching it fly out of his hands like it hatched. Then Danny Woodhead races into the end zone untouched when you'd think Belichick would have told them to go down at the 2-yard line or so if someone got free, just to keep the clock moving and keep the ball out of the Cardinals' hands. Then there's the penalty that nullifies the whole thing anyway. Then the Pats don't even try to go for the end zone after the false start penalty. THEN Gostkowski misses the game-winner with a kick as horrible as he's ever attempted. You knew off his foot that was no good. (Cardinals 20, Patriots 18)
Cortland Finnegan is the NFL's equivalent of Sean Avery: a moderately talented player whose main talent is getting under your skin and pissing you off. Josh Morgan fell for it and that's why the Redskins are looking at a 66-yard field goal to send this game into overtime. Well, that and the fact that they let Danny Amendola catch 15 passes. This has no shot. None whatsoever. (Rams 31, Redskins 28)
It continues! Seriously, where was all this Jets offensive productivity in the preseason? And with no Harrison or Polamalu for the Steelers, this could get interesting if they can maintain it. It's a good thing the Steelers have become a passing team because they can't run the ball at all. Uh-oh... Jets are starting to slow down offensively. Nobody can get open downfield and there are no running lanes.
I'M MIKE WALLACE. Who says I can only run go routes? Who says I can't make tough catches? Wait, what? Hang on, WHAT? Pass WHAT?! Where?!? Oh, that's awful. That's just ridiculously bad. (Steelers 27, Jets 10)
Someone call the authorities — Peyton Manning's been kidnapped and replaced with Eli. This game may not end until midnight. Peyton's deep ball just doesn't seem to be there. OK, Ray Edwards should have been ejected for that. That's the rule. That should have been the first thing the league told these guys: If a player touches you, throw him out of the game. This has gone off the rails. God forbid Edwards sacks Peyton now and knocks him out — John Fox will rightfully go ballistic. This game may not end until midnight Wednesday. Seriously, though, how do you completely lose control of a Broncos-Falcons game? What happens at Eagles-Giants? Or Ravens-Steelers? As for the matter at hand, the Broncos are fortunate to still be in something resembling striking distance because Peyton's settled down. Can Peyton now do what Eli did? Against an NFC South team, no less? Ummm... doesn't look like it. (Falcons 27, Broncos 21)
Charles Woodson on Cutler postgame, "it's the same old Jay. We don't need luck, Jay will throw us the ball...proof is in the pudding."
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 14, 2012
What's ironic about that is that Cutler and DeAngelo Hall had a similar exchange after Hall picked him off four times, which sums both of them up fairly accurately. (Packers 23, Bears 10)
Signal Finder: BAL @ PHI, NYJ @ PIT, WSH @ STL
PROTECT THE FOOTBALL. THAT GOES FOR BOTH OF YOU. Forget Jason Peters — King Dunlap is making me miss Winston Justice. The Ravens abandoned the hurry-up pretty quickly for whatever reason. This game is getting chippy. Oh, COME ON. Horrible red zone turnovers? Yep, just like last year. (How about Vick practically jumping on Ray Lewis' back to drag him down?) Did Celek just clear Ed Reed? Oh, now Maclin's down? The Eagles are losing players like the Giants apparently are. I'm looking at this reverse angle on the replay and Vick's across the 5, but it's still not a first down. Hey, the Ravens are running the ball again. And then they pass on 3rd and 2? Is Andy calling the Ravens' plays? It doesn't make sense, especially since Rice gashed them a couple of times in the first half. That's on Celek. Or off Celek, as the case may be. The one time the Ravens put a man on him and the ball magically ends up in Reed's hands. Uncanny. 56 and 51 without breaking a sweat? Where'd the Ravens find this kid? Sean Considine's still in the league? The refs have been blowing ball spots all game long. Additionally, offensive holding is apparently now 15 yards. Wait... why are we doing the two-minute warning again? Nobody stopped the clock, did they?
Hey guess whose DVR of the Eagles' game cuts off just before Vick's TD run? But thank God I have all of the 2-minute warnings to savor.
— Les Bowen (@LesBowen) September 17, 2012
I'm glad I was in the car when the not-even-close-to-a-fumble happened, because somebody would have had to call the cops if that didn't get overturned. It also wasn't intentional grounding because Vick was clearly hit as he threw, changing the direction of the ball. (How they got that part right is one of the great unsolved mysteries of the universe.) And touchdown! This team's going to take 10 years off my life. Cue the Ravens whining about the refs in 3... 2... 1... (Eagles 24, Ravens 23)
Giants fans probably feel the same way Eagles fans felt last week. You'll take it, but you're not happy about it. (Giants 41, Buccaneers 34)
Meanwhile, this happened:
The official Brian Stropolo was replaced because his active facebook page unabashedly displays fan passion for the Sai… say.ly/LMG4bhX
— Chris Mortensen (@mortreport) September 16, 2012
So let's see... the Bills did to the Chiefs what the Jets did to them last week. That means the Saints are due to catch another beatdown. The way their defense has played so far, that's entirely possible. (Panthers 35, Saints 27; Bills 35, Chiefs 17)
Oh, God, the last minute or so of Cardinals-Patriots was a master class in incompetence, and unusually, most of it was committed by the Patriots. First there's the fumble itself, with Ryan Williams holding the ball like an egg and watching it fly out of his hands like it hatched. Then Danny Woodhead races into the end zone untouched when you'd think Belichick would have told them to go down at the 2-yard line or so if someone got free, just to keep the clock moving and keep the ball out of the Cardinals' hands. Then there's the penalty that nullifies the whole thing anyway. Then the Pats don't even try to go for the end zone after the false start penalty. THEN Gostkowski misses the game-winner with a kick as horrible as he's ever attempted. You knew off his foot that was no good. (Cardinals 20, Patriots 18)
Cortland Finnegan is the NFL's equivalent of Sean Avery: a moderately talented player whose main talent is getting under your skin and pissing you off. Josh Morgan fell for it and that's why the Redskins are looking at a 66-yard field goal to send this game into overtime. Well, that and the fact that they let Danny Amendola catch 15 passes. This has no shot. None whatsoever. (Rams 31, Redskins 28)
It continues! Seriously, where was all this Jets offensive productivity in the preseason? And with no Harrison or Polamalu for the Steelers, this could get interesting if they can maintain it. It's a good thing the Steelers have become a passing team because they can't run the ball at all. Uh-oh... Jets are starting to slow down offensively. Nobody can get open downfield and there are no running lanes.
As to the game: This has been my fear w/ #Jets all along, no weapons. Defense hung in there for most part but just got worn down.
— Mike Greenberg (@Espngreeny) September 16, 2012
I'M MIKE WALLACE. Who says I can only run go routes? Who says I can't make tough catches? Wait, what? Hang on, WHAT? Pass WHAT?! Where?!? Oh, that's awful. That's just ridiculously bad. (Steelers 27, Jets 10)
Someone call the authorities — Peyton Manning's been kidnapped and replaced with Eli. This game may not end until midnight. Peyton's deep ball just doesn't seem to be there. OK, Ray Edwards should have been ejected for that. That's the rule. That should have been the first thing the league told these guys: If a player touches you, throw him out of the game. This has gone off the rails. God forbid Edwards sacks Peyton now and knocks him out — John Fox will rightfully go ballistic. This game may not end until midnight Wednesday. Seriously, though, how do you completely lose control of a Broncos-Falcons game? What happens at Eagles-Giants? Or Ravens-Steelers? As for the matter at hand, the Broncos are fortunate to still be in something resembling striking distance because Peyton's settled down. Can Peyton now do what Eli did? Against an NFC South team, no less? Ummm... doesn't look like it. (Falcons 27, Broncos 21)
Friday, September 14, 2012
By The Pigskin Of Our Teeth, Week 1: Requiem For A Wolverine
If you can see the smoke coming from MetLife Stadium, it's coming off the #Giants' secondary. Tony Romo likes them extra crispy. #NFLKickoff
— NOT SportsCenter (@NOTSportsCenter) September 6, 2012
I mean, Kevin Ogletree shouldn't be getting that wide open against anyone. It just shouldn't happen. There've been some weird center snaps in this game. A couple of them have gone off to the right and Romo's having to adjust way too much for any Cowboy fan's liking. It's like these teams switched identities: the Cowboys are torching defensive backs and calling crisp plays (though still committing plenty of penalties), and the Giants are dropping passes left and right. This was... unexpected. (Cowboys 24, Giants 17)
Signal Finder: PHI @ CLE, BUF @ NYJ, SF @ GB, SEA @ AZ (end)
The Modells asked the Browns not to do anything to memorialize Art. It's the best decision the Browns have made in the last 20 years. I think Cleveland would have given a better reception to John Elway and LeBron James combined. Also, Elway could probably still play quarterback better than both Vick and Weeden have shown so far, and LeBron would be the Browns' best pass-catching option if he suited up. That got deflected but that's a bad throw by Vick into what's just about double coverage. There are flags all over the place today. Flags and interceptions. This game has also been bad, but it's a different kind of bad than Giants-Cowboys was. This challenge will fail as there's no way to tell if it hit the Eagle player's foot or not, and it looks like he jumped over it. I'm not sure how I feel about showing the replay monitor view live in the stadium. Oh boy. Can't put that one on Vick, though -- Maclin could and should probably have caught it. I should also point out here that I can name maybe two guys on the field defensively for the Browns and Sheldon Brown hasn't played to my knowledge. Really, Vick? REALLY? You know what this is reminding me of? The last time they were in Ohio, the tie against the Bengals. McNabb was completely off in that game, Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph were abusing their receivers, and Andy just kept throwing. I mean, the run/pass ratio has been ridiculous. And right as I say that the Eagles call three straight runs. Make it FOUR straight runs. And after all that, they miss a field goal. I have to say, Trent Richardson is probably the Browns' best skill position player by default and the Eagles defense has held him down. The corners have looked good and DeMeco Ryans has been all over the place. As much as we all implored Vick to learn to slide more, that's not the time for it -- he has to sell out there to try to keep the chains moving. If he'd lost the fumble there I wouldn't have been able to blame him for that. (It's not like I don't have four other reasons.) Celek! HARBOUR!
Celebrity NFL Tweet of the Week (from Angel Booth):
A win is a win but @eagles need to figure out the play calling and Vick. The amount of turn overs and holding penalties won't get us far.
— David Boreanaz (@David_Boreanaz) September 9, 2012
Let's get out of here before they change their minds. (Eagles 17, Browns 16)
Nice start, rook. You were the only one. (Redskins 40, Saints 32)
Look, if you've been a regular reader of these pieces, you know I'm not That Guy when it comes to talking about officiating. Or, at the very least, I make a concerted effort not to be. But the illegal block in the back on a kick return happens on every kick return. And it almost always gets called. How do you miss it when it happens twice on the same return? Also, how bad did the Packers look? (49ers 30, Packers 22)
More importantly, when you don't know the time out rules at the end of a game, at best it's an embarrassment to yourself. At worst you could cost someone a victory. Also, I was unaware Chris Webber was a replacement official. You'd think SportsCenter would've had that. (Cardinals 20, Seahawks 16)
This Week It Sucks To Be: The Raiders' backup long snapper. I mean, relatively speaking, being a backup long snapper isn't a great gig to start with, but when you end up blowing three snaps on Monday Night Football... ah, jeez. Hey, the Chargers won in September. Down is up, left is right. (Chargers 22, Raiders 14)
Honorable mention to whoever on the Rams was responsible for Kevin Smith in pass coverage. (Lions 27, Rams 26)
Sunday, September 9, 2012
Fearful Forecast 2012: AFC
AFC EAST
(1) New England: I watched about 50 seconds of the Super Bowl this year because the matchup sickened me and I already knew the outcome, as last year's Pats matched up horribly with last year's Giants, especially defensively. But they spent draft week trading up for once and adding some badly needed blue-chip defensive players. Bad division + easy schedule = best record in the league.
Buffalo: Hey, somebody has to finish second. Of course, "second" could be 6-10. But I have a feeling it won't be. The Bills stunned everyone by getting Mario Williams to come aboard from salary cap-stressed Houston, adding one of the game's top pass rushers to what's becoming an interesting defense. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick got paid, then promptly fell off the map, turning into an interception machine before getting hurt. That can't happen again if the Bills want to have any hope of respectability.
N.Y. Jets: Rex Ryan has fully formed into a perfect clone of his father as a head coach: great with defense, nearly clueless on offense. Their two best offensive players are their center and left tackle. Their biggest offseason move was trading for a backup quarterback who may never actually become a viable NFL quarterback. Fortunately, they still have Darrelle Revis and David Harris. Expect many 10-7 games this season.
Miami: The good news is Reggie Bush finally ran for 1,000 yards. That's... really about it. I think they've made three mistakes already with rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill: drafting him, naming him the Week 1 starter, and trading away his best receiving option in Brandon Marshall (though there were other reasons for that.) And will they ever win a home game again?
AFC SOUTH
(2) Houston: Am I crazy for thinking the Texans would have at least reached the Super Bowl last year with a healthy Matt Schaub? I don't think I am. They lost some big names on defense which may or may not hurt, and even if star back Arian Foster can't stay healthy, backup Ben Tate has more than proven himself. Expect another division title, but a deep playoff run may be a little more difficult.
Tennessee: It's Jake Locker time as the second-year quarterback and somewhat surprising first-round pick takes over. Locker played well at times when needed last season and will inherit an underrated receiving corps and a strong offensive line. They'll need Chris Johnson to have a bounce-back season, but a defense that's in transition probably isn't good enough to make the Titans a contender.
Indianapolis: The Colts kept more veterans around (Reggie Wayne, Robert Mathis) than I thought they would, meaning No. 1 overall pick Andrew Luck won't have to completely go it alone. Luck's preseason play has some calling the Colts a dark horse division contender (and this division isn't great), but I'm not willing to go that far. However, they could play spoiler -- their December schedule features Houston twice, Tennessee, Detroit and Kansas City.
Jacksonville: Blaine Gabbert spent most of last season running around like a chicken with its head cut off. Maurice Jones-Drew just showed up to camp after holding out and not getting paid. Top pick Justin Blackmon got arrested for DWI before he even signed his contract. At least they didn't get blacked out last season?
AFC NORTH
(3) Baltimore: Joe Flacco outplayed Tom Brady in the AFC title game and the Ravens were horribly unlucky to lose. This team's developing more of an offensive identity as Ray Rice has become one of the league's best backs. The defense does remain formidable, if a little long in the tooth at key spots, though not having Terrell Suggs will hurt.
(5) Pittsburgh: I gave the Ravens the edge in the division because the Steelers are missing a couple of key pieces -- they may have lost top pick David DeCastro for the season and starting running back Rashard Mendenhall will miss the beginning of the season while recovering from wrecking his knee at the end of the last one. It was a close call, as it always is between these two, but don't expect the Steelers to drop off.
Cincinnati: The Bengals found the combination to the lock on the back door and got into the playoffs on the strength of their still mostly unknown defense and the Andy Dalton-A.J. Green combination, which exceeded expectations as rookies and has the potential to be something great. But the schedule gets a lot tougher in 2012, which may leave the Bengals the odd team out in the end.
Cleveland: The Browns gave up on Colt McCoy quickly, drafting 28-year-old Brandon Weeden late in the first round and giving him the starting quarterback job. The problem is the same as it's been since the franchise was brought back -- they're short on talent (especially on offense; rookie Trent Richardson can't do it alone) and have done very few things right.
AFC WEST
(4) San Diego: This division was the most difficult to pick since there's no one team that stands out and they all have potentially fatal flaws, and the Chargers may have the biggest one standing on their sideline. Philip Rivers had a down year but remains one of the league's best quarterbacks, and he may make the difference in what I expect to be a very tight divisional race.
(6) Oakland: I know. I KNOW. It doesn't make sense, right? But as I just said, I think anybody can win this division and that it'll be very close. An important factor will be if a full training camp can help Carson Palmer control an offense that has plenty of potential. The concern is the defense. New head coach Dennis Allen has a defensive background, which will be needed because the Raiders couldn't stop the run last season.
Denver: Hey, a Peyton Manning sighting! Manning made Denver his new home in the offseason, but the offense he inherits is a far cry from the units he commanded during his salad days in Indy, with young receivers and a glut of running backs. The defense will put plenty of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but it's what the Broncos' QB has left that matters the most.
Kansas City: The Chiefs lost their two best players (RB Jamaal Charles and S Eric Berry) to injury last year, fired their head coach in midseason, saw their quarterback get hurt, and were somehow still in the division race until the second-to-last week. I think they're the least likely to finish on top, but who knows in this division.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
WILD CARD
AFC: (3) Baltimore over (6) Oakland, (5) Pittsburgh over (4) San Diego
NFC: (4) Philadelphia over (5) Chicago, (3) Atlanta over (6) N.Y. Giants
DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
AFC: (1) New England over (5) Pittsburgh, (3) Baltimore over (2) Houston
NFC: (2) Green Bay over (3) Atlanta, (1) San Francisco over (4) Philadelphia
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
AFC: (3) Baltimore over (1) New England
NFC: (2) Green Bay over (1) San Francisco
SUPER BOWL XLVII
Green Bay over Baltimore
(1) New England: I watched about 50 seconds of the Super Bowl this year because the matchup sickened me and I already knew the outcome, as last year's Pats matched up horribly with last year's Giants, especially defensively. But they spent draft week trading up for once and adding some badly needed blue-chip defensive players. Bad division + easy schedule = best record in the league.
Buffalo: Hey, somebody has to finish second. Of course, "second" could be 6-10. But I have a feeling it won't be. The Bills stunned everyone by getting Mario Williams to come aboard from salary cap-stressed Houston, adding one of the game's top pass rushers to what's becoming an interesting defense. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick got paid, then promptly fell off the map, turning into an interception machine before getting hurt. That can't happen again if the Bills want to have any hope of respectability.
N.Y. Jets: Rex Ryan has fully formed into a perfect clone of his father as a head coach: great with defense, nearly clueless on offense. Their two best offensive players are their center and left tackle. Their biggest offseason move was trading for a backup quarterback who may never actually become a viable NFL quarterback. Fortunately, they still have Darrelle Revis and David Harris. Expect many 10-7 games this season.
Miami: The good news is Reggie Bush finally ran for 1,000 yards. That's... really about it. I think they've made three mistakes already with rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill: drafting him, naming him the Week 1 starter, and trading away his best receiving option in Brandon Marshall (though there were other reasons for that.) And will they ever win a home game again?
AFC SOUTH
(2) Houston: Am I crazy for thinking the Texans would have at least reached the Super Bowl last year with a healthy Matt Schaub? I don't think I am. They lost some big names on defense which may or may not hurt, and even if star back Arian Foster can't stay healthy, backup Ben Tate has more than proven himself. Expect another division title, but a deep playoff run may be a little more difficult.
Tennessee: It's Jake Locker time as the second-year quarterback and somewhat surprising first-round pick takes over. Locker played well at times when needed last season and will inherit an underrated receiving corps and a strong offensive line. They'll need Chris Johnson to have a bounce-back season, but a defense that's in transition probably isn't good enough to make the Titans a contender.
Indianapolis: The Colts kept more veterans around (Reggie Wayne, Robert Mathis) than I thought they would, meaning No. 1 overall pick Andrew Luck won't have to completely go it alone. Luck's preseason play has some calling the Colts a dark horse division contender (and this division isn't great), but I'm not willing to go that far. However, they could play spoiler -- their December schedule features Houston twice, Tennessee, Detroit and Kansas City.
Jacksonville: Blaine Gabbert spent most of last season running around like a chicken with its head cut off. Maurice Jones-Drew just showed up to camp after holding out and not getting paid. Top pick Justin Blackmon got arrested for DWI before he even signed his contract. At least they didn't get blacked out last season?
AFC NORTH
(3) Baltimore: Joe Flacco outplayed Tom Brady in the AFC title game and the Ravens were horribly unlucky to lose. This team's developing more of an offensive identity as Ray Rice has become one of the league's best backs. The defense does remain formidable, if a little long in the tooth at key spots, though not having Terrell Suggs will hurt.
(5) Pittsburgh: I gave the Ravens the edge in the division because the Steelers are missing a couple of key pieces -- they may have lost top pick David DeCastro for the season and starting running back Rashard Mendenhall will miss the beginning of the season while recovering from wrecking his knee at the end of the last one. It was a close call, as it always is between these two, but don't expect the Steelers to drop off.
Cincinnati: The Bengals found the combination to the lock on the back door and got into the playoffs on the strength of their still mostly unknown defense and the Andy Dalton-A.J. Green combination, which exceeded expectations as rookies and has the potential to be something great. But the schedule gets a lot tougher in 2012, which may leave the Bengals the odd team out in the end.
Cleveland: The Browns gave up on Colt McCoy quickly, drafting 28-year-old Brandon Weeden late in the first round and giving him the starting quarterback job. The problem is the same as it's been since the franchise was brought back -- they're short on talent (especially on offense; rookie Trent Richardson can't do it alone) and have done very few things right.
AFC WEST
(4) San Diego: This division was the most difficult to pick since there's no one team that stands out and they all have potentially fatal flaws, and the Chargers may have the biggest one standing on their sideline. Philip Rivers had a down year but remains one of the league's best quarterbacks, and he may make the difference in what I expect to be a very tight divisional race.
(6) Oakland: I know. I KNOW. It doesn't make sense, right? But as I just said, I think anybody can win this division and that it'll be very close. An important factor will be if a full training camp can help Carson Palmer control an offense that has plenty of potential. The concern is the defense. New head coach Dennis Allen has a defensive background, which will be needed because the Raiders couldn't stop the run last season.
Denver: Hey, a Peyton Manning sighting! Manning made Denver his new home in the offseason, but the offense he inherits is a far cry from the units he commanded during his salad days in Indy, with young receivers and a glut of running backs. The defense will put plenty of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but it's what the Broncos' QB has left that matters the most.
Kansas City: The Chiefs lost their two best players (RB Jamaal Charles and S Eric Berry) to injury last year, fired their head coach in midseason, saw their quarterback get hurt, and were somehow still in the division race until the second-to-last week. I think they're the least likely to finish on top, but who knows in this division.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
WILD CARD
AFC: (3) Baltimore over (6) Oakland, (5) Pittsburgh over (4) San Diego
NFC: (4) Philadelphia over (5) Chicago, (3) Atlanta over (6) N.Y. Giants
DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
AFC: (1) New England over (5) Pittsburgh, (3) Baltimore over (2) Houston
NFC: (2) Green Bay over (3) Atlanta, (1) San Francisco over (4) Philadelphia
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
AFC: (3) Baltimore over (1) New England
NFC: (2) Green Bay over (1) San Francisco
SUPER BOWL XLVII
Green Bay over Baltimore
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
Fearful Forecast 2012: NFC
Thought this was dead, didn't you? Yeah, so did I. Fell behind and never caught up. But I learned a few things from last year's aborted effort:
1. Don't be away from home on a weekend. This normally isn't an issue, but Week 3 was my 15-year college reunion and I spent that Sunday at my parents' house, so I couldn't write up my notes during the games and my brain only holds so much material at once.
2. Stick to a schedule. This'll be easier with Thursday night games now every week, so posts will be up on Wednesdays.
Let's run this back.
NFC EAST
(4) Philadelphia: Go back to the beginning of last season and think of all the things that went wrong for the Eagles last year. The defensive coordinator spent most of the season in over his head. DeSean Jackson spent the whole season moping over his contract. Most of the big-ticket signings didn't pan out. Michael Vick didn't come close to repeating his 2010 season and missed games with injuries. They hosted the Arizona Cardinals. Now consider that all of those things happened and they still went 8-8 in what was a bad year for the division as a whole, and were a blown fourth-quarter lead away from a division title. That said, miss the playoffs again and it's the end for Reid and Vick.
(6) N.Y. Giants: The reigning champions are really only the reigning champions because of Eli Manning, who carried a team that struggled to run the ball and stop opponents for most of the season. Then they followed an eerily familiar path to their second title in four years. So why aren't they my division champs? 'Cause the Eagles kind of have their number. (Also, fun fact: Seven of the last year's division champions were different from the year before.)
Dallas: I'm not sure how much more time the main nucleus of this team (Romo, Witten, Ware, Ratliff) has left. Dez Bryant's effectively on house arrest. And legitimate questions are resurfacing on Jason Garrett as a head coach. Another new starting running back and much-needed upgrades at cornerback will help, but I'm just not sure how much. Plus, the Giants kind of have their number.
Washington: Mike Shanahan's betting the farm -- literally -- on rookie QB Robert Griffin III, who seems to have his head on straight and who I will not enjoy rooting against for the next decade. But they're relying on a lot of unproven guys to suddenly prove themselves and I don't know that all of them will come through. Shanahan bought himself some more time with RGIII, but this team needs to turn the corner soon.
NFC NORTH
(2) Green Bay: Last year's prohibitive Super Bowl favorites were done in by a bad playoff performance that got blamed on a defense that played below its talent level. (Losing Cullen Jenkins arguably hurt them more than getting him helped the Eagles.) So they did the smart thing and went and got more players. The offense? Don't worry about the offense.
(5) Chicago: Jay Cutler finally has a top receiving target in former Broncos teammate Brandon Marshall, if the latter can stay out of trouble and the offensive line can keep the former upright. Michael Bush joins Matt Forte in the backfield to keep defenses honest. They'll need improved play from the back end of their defense, but their special teams are second to none -- you know about Devin Hester, but Robbie Gould may actually be the best kicker in the league.
Detroit: The Lions finally broke out of their decades-long malaise, going 10-6 and making the playoffs on the strength of a mostly-healthy Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, who's simply one of the game's best players. They also developed a nasty streak that rubbed some opposing players -- and coaches -- the wrong way and hurt them at times. I don't think they improved enough to put them ahead of the Bears, though.
Minnesota: It's no fun being the fourth team in a three-team division. It's even less fun when your best offensive player (Adrian Peterson) is coming back from blowing his knee out and you don't have anyone else with experience at being a good offensive NFL player. This is Year 2 of a rebuilding project and don't let anyone tell you otherwise.
NFC SOUTH
(3) Atlanta: Quarterback Matt Ryan and head coach Mike Smith have a lot of questions to answer, and this may be their best chance to answer them in the affirmative. Their new pass-oriented offense should make receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones even more dangerous, and this division hasn't had a repeat winner since ever. The addition of cornerback Asante Samuel worries me, though... we've all seen what happens to Eagles when they become ex-Eagles.
New Orleans: The only good thing that's happened to the Saints since the end of last season was Drew Brees' new contract and even that took entirely too long to resolve. I can't be the only one who thinks that the fallout from the bounty scandal will have an adverse effect on this team. Of course, there's still enough left, especially on offense, for them to still be dangerous, and the "us against the world" mentality may never be in purer form than it will be here.
Carolina: I thoiught every quarterback drafted in the first round last year was terribly overdrafted, including No. 1 overall pick Cam Newton, who exceeded my expectations throwing to Steve Smith 1.0 and basically nobody else. The offensive line is an underrated strength, but there just isn't enough talent here yet to contend with the top two teams.
Tampa Bay: After scrapping their way to 10 wins two years ago, the Bucs crashed last season as quarterback Josh Freeman regressed badly. In the most surprising coaching hire of the offseason, former Rutgers head man Greg Schiano took over after not getting the Penn State job. He made the Scarlet Knights semi-relevant; can he buck the trend of college coaches not faring well in the pros and get the Bucs on the right track? It probably won't happen this season.
NFC WEST
(1) San Francisco: The 49ers rode a stout defense and shockingly efficient quarterbacking from Alex Smith to the NFC title game before losing in overtime. One wonders if that was the best Smith is capable of. One also wonders what Randy Moss has left and if Mario Manningham will actually make a difference. The D remains one of the league's best and will likely carry this team again.
Seattle: Pete Carroll is very quietly building something promising here, but naming rookie Russell Wilson the starting quarterback after paying Matt Flynn decent money is a bit of a gamble despite how well Wilson played in the preseason. Marshawn Lynch returns as the workhorse back. They reached in the first round for pass-rusher Bruce Irvin, but they did need a pass rusher and defense has always been Carroll's calling card.
Arizona: Could Ken Whisenhunt be on the hot seat? After the improbable Super Bowl run he made with mostly Dennis Green's players, the Cardinals have reverted to their usual role as the NFL's doormat as the quarterback situation has descended into unwatchable chaos. The offensive line situation hasn't helped matters, either. There's good talent here in spots, but the Cardinals are in big trouble if they can't establish a quarterback.
St. Louis: Veteran head coach Jeff Fisher comes in to revive a team that's been floundering for the last few years. Trading out of No. 2 overall yielded much-needed extra draft picks to fix gaping holes in the secondary and at receiver, even though they might not have gotten the players they really wanted. Stephen Jackson remains a stalwart on offense, but the rest of that side of the ball needs time to grow together.
1. Don't be away from home on a weekend. This normally isn't an issue, but Week 3 was my 15-year college reunion and I spent that Sunday at my parents' house, so I couldn't write up my notes during the games and my brain only holds so much material at once.
2. Stick to a schedule. This'll be easier with Thursday night games now every week, so posts will be up on Wednesdays.
Let's run this back.
NFC EAST
(4) Philadelphia: Go back to the beginning of last season and think of all the things that went wrong for the Eagles last year. The defensive coordinator spent most of the season in over his head. DeSean Jackson spent the whole season moping over his contract. Most of the big-ticket signings didn't pan out. Michael Vick didn't come close to repeating his 2010 season and missed games with injuries. They hosted the Arizona Cardinals. Now consider that all of those things happened and they still went 8-8 in what was a bad year for the division as a whole, and were a blown fourth-quarter lead away from a division title. That said, miss the playoffs again and it's the end for Reid and Vick.
(6) N.Y. Giants: The reigning champions are really only the reigning champions because of Eli Manning, who carried a team that struggled to run the ball and stop opponents for most of the season. Then they followed an eerily familiar path to their second title in four years. So why aren't they my division champs? 'Cause the Eagles kind of have their number. (Also, fun fact: Seven of the last year's division champions were different from the year before.)
Dallas: I'm not sure how much more time the main nucleus of this team (Romo, Witten, Ware, Ratliff) has left. Dez Bryant's effectively on house arrest. And legitimate questions are resurfacing on Jason Garrett as a head coach. Another new starting running back and much-needed upgrades at cornerback will help, but I'm just not sure how much. Plus, the Giants kind of have their number.
Washington: Mike Shanahan's betting the farm -- literally -- on rookie QB Robert Griffin III, who seems to have his head on straight and who I will not enjoy rooting against for the next decade. But they're relying on a lot of unproven guys to suddenly prove themselves and I don't know that all of them will come through. Shanahan bought himself some more time with RGIII, but this team needs to turn the corner soon.
NFC NORTH
(2) Green Bay: Last year's prohibitive Super Bowl favorites were done in by a bad playoff performance that got blamed on a defense that played below its talent level. (Losing Cullen Jenkins arguably hurt them more than getting him helped the Eagles.) So they did the smart thing and went and got more players. The offense? Don't worry about the offense.
(5) Chicago: Jay Cutler finally has a top receiving target in former Broncos teammate Brandon Marshall, if the latter can stay out of trouble and the offensive line can keep the former upright. Michael Bush joins Matt Forte in the backfield to keep defenses honest. They'll need improved play from the back end of their defense, but their special teams are second to none -- you know about Devin Hester, but Robbie Gould may actually be the best kicker in the league.
Detroit: The Lions finally broke out of their decades-long malaise, going 10-6 and making the playoffs on the strength of a mostly-healthy Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, who's simply one of the game's best players. They also developed a nasty streak that rubbed some opposing players -- and coaches -- the wrong way and hurt them at times. I don't think they improved enough to put them ahead of the Bears, though.
Minnesota: It's no fun being the fourth team in a three-team division. It's even less fun when your best offensive player (Adrian Peterson) is coming back from blowing his knee out and you don't have anyone else with experience at being a good offensive NFL player. This is Year 2 of a rebuilding project and don't let anyone tell you otherwise.
NFC SOUTH
(3) Atlanta: Quarterback Matt Ryan and head coach Mike Smith have a lot of questions to answer, and this may be their best chance to answer them in the affirmative. Their new pass-oriented offense should make receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones even more dangerous, and this division hasn't had a repeat winner since ever. The addition of cornerback Asante Samuel worries me, though... we've all seen what happens to Eagles when they become ex-Eagles.
New Orleans: The only good thing that's happened to the Saints since the end of last season was Drew Brees' new contract and even that took entirely too long to resolve. I can't be the only one who thinks that the fallout from the bounty scandal will have an adverse effect on this team. Of course, there's still enough left, especially on offense, for them to still be dangerous, and the "us against the world" mentality may never be in purer form than it will be here.
Carolina: I thoiught every quarterback drafted in the first round last year was terribly overdrafted, including No. 1 overall pick Cam Newton, who exceeded my expectations throwing to Steve Smith 1.0 and basically nobody else. The offensive line is an underrated strength, but there just isn't enough talent here yet to contend with the top two teams.
Tampa Bay: After scrapping their way to 10 wins two years ago, the Bucs crashed last season as quarterback Josh Freeman regressed badly. In the most surprising coaching hire of the offseason, former Rutgers head man Greg Schiano took over after not getting the Penn State job. He made the Scarlet Knights semi-relevant; can he buck the trend of college coaches not faring well in the pros and get the Bucs on the right track? It probably won't happen this season.
NFC WEST
(1) San Francisco: The 49ers rode a stout defense and shockingly efficient quarterbacking from Alex Smith to the NFC title game before losing in overtime. One wonders if that was the best Smith is capable of. One also wonders what Randy Moss has left and if Mario Manningham will actually make a difference. The D remains one of the league's best and will likely carry this team again.
Seattle: Pete Carroll is very quietly building something promising here, but naming rookie Russell Wilson the starting quarterback after paying Matt Flynn decent money is a bit of a gamble despite how well Wilson played in the preseason. Marshawn Lynch returns as the workhorse back. They reached in the first round for pass-rusher Bruce Irvin, but they did need a pass rusher and defense has always been Carroll's calling card.
Arizona: Could Ken Whisenhunt be on the hot seat? After the improbable Super Bowl run he made with mostly Dennis Green's players, the Cardinals have reverted to their usual role as the NFL's doormat as the quarterback situation has descended into unwatchable chaos. The offensive line situation hasn't helped matters, either. There's good talent here in spots, but the Cardinals are in big trouble if they can't establish a quarterback.
St. Louis: Veteran head coach Jeff Fisher comes in to revive a team that's been floundering for the last few years. Trading out of No. 2 overall yielded much-needed extra draft picks to fix gaping holes in the secondary and at receiver, even though they might not have gotten the players they really wanted. Stephen Jackson remains a stalwart on offense, but the rest of that side of the ball needs time to grow together.
Saturday, September 10, 2011
Fearful Forecast 2011
FEARFUL FORECAST 2011
NFC EAST
(2) Philadelphia — The talk of the league after exceeding expectations last year, followed by an offseason spending blitz designed to fix some large holes in the defense, including becoming the somewhat surprising winner of the Nnamdi Asomugah sweepstakes. They've also hitched their wagon to Michael Vick for the foreseeable future, a development that absolutely no one would have predicted three years ago. But offensive line questions abound and may be the only thing holding them back if those questions don't get answered.
Dallas — In the recent past, the Cowboys have managed to choke on their own Super Bowl aspirations, and the year they won the division and a playoff game was the year that pundits had grown tired of their chronic underachieving. Which makes them hard to judge, since those expectations have been somewhat tempered, but they did play better when Jason Garrett took over midseason.
N.Y. Giants — Another late-season collapse ruined another season, yet Tom Coughlin gets an extension. Then they lost several key players through release (they turned over their offensive line but arguably made it worse), departure (they'll miss Steve Smith 2.0 more than everyone thinks) or disgruntlement (Oh, Osi) and saw several others get hurt in the preseason. Eli still gives them a fighting chance, especially if he cuts down on the turnovers, but I'm not optimistic and I worry about their collective psyche.
Washington — Arguably their biggest win of the year was getting an actual tangible asset for Albert Haynesworth, and ceding the title of "D.C.'s Most Overpaid Professional Athlete" to Jayson Werth in the process. This team was in shambles at the end of last season, with too many holes to fill in an abbreviated offseason, though they did avoid the monumentally stupid moves they were known for making under Daniel Snyder's ownership. Until they named Rex Grossman the starting QB, that is.
NFC NORTH
(1) Green Bay —The Packers were cut to pieces by injuries last season and still won the Super Bowl, a testament to how much talent they still had. With most of those players coming back, making the depth charts even deeper, there's little reason to expect any significant dropoff. A trip back to the Super Bowl is highly likely.
(5) Detroit — A trendy playoff pick, and for good reason: The Lions seem to finally have a plan and played better at the end of last season, winning a truly ugly game over the Packers and sending another longtime foe to the retirement home for good. Now if they can just keep Matthew Stafford upright...
Chicago — The Bears improved the least of the NFC North teams, as they seemed to follow the route of bringing in guys nobody else wanted because they aren't any good anymore (Roy Williams, Marion Barber III) or never were (Vernon Gholston). Plus, Jay Cutler's head is in question again after the NFC title game where he may or may not have begged off with a knee injury, and the offensive line, while improved over the second half of last season, remains a work in progress.
Minnesota — But let's say this: Fourth could be 8-8. The collapses of Brett Favre and the Metrodome, respectively, overshadowed the fact that pretty much every Viking of significance had a worse 2010 than 2009. Interestingly, new quarterback Donovan McNabb also fits into this category, and he'll want to prove he still has plenty left in his tank.
NFC SOUTH
(3) New Orleans — Made history in the bad way at the end of the season by losing to the under-.500 Seahawks in the playoffs. (The Madden Curse works in mysterious ways.) The Saints' offense will ensure they're always dangerous, but they'll need the defense to return to its Super Bowl-winning form.
(6) Atlanta — Still licking their wounds after being eviscerated by the Packers in the playoffs, the Falcons made a big draft-day move to get rookie receiver Julio Jones, putting a lot on his shoulders. Free agent DE Ray Edwards will help the pass rush, but given the high-octane offenses they'll face this season, they'll also need their cornerbacks to prove last year wasn't a fluke.
Tampa Bay — Pundits were concerned that the Bucs, who went a shocking 10-6 but missed the playoffs last year, didn't ride the momentum and use their cap room to upgrade at some weak positions. They may take a step back because the two teams above them are still better than them (and, like the Chiefs, they no longer have the element of surprise), but this is a young squad that looks like it's getting better.
Carolina — Ron Rivera gets his first shot at a head coaching job four years after his name was the hottest one out there. Fittingly, he has a rookie, No. 1 overall pick Cam Newton, at quarterback. The Panthers did well to keep the few good players they have in the fold, giving them something to rebuild around. But can Newton succeed at this level?
NFC WEST
(4) St. Louis — Basically by default. Quarterback Sam Bradford was better than some people expected last year, Steven Jackson had another solid season, and Danny Amendola somehow caught 85 passes, having arguably the most unremarkable "very good year" in the history of the sport. Late last year this division seemed to become theirs to lose, and this year there's no reason to think they won't actually win it.
Arizona — The Cardinals gave up a lot to get Kevin Kolb and his seven career starts, but they had to do something after running Derek Anderson, Max Hall and John Skelton out there last season (they'd have gotten equal production out of Louie Anderson, Monty Hall and Red Skelton). Of bigger worry might be the rest of their offense, as Larry Fitzgerald will be facing the same triple-teams that Steve Smith 1.0 is.
San Francisco — The Alex Smith era improbably continues as the Jim Harbaugh one begins
In a nice touch, the 49ers visit Jim's brother John's Baltimore Ravens on Thanksgiving night.
Seattle — After their surprising, and, some would say, blasphemous playoff appearance last year, the Seahawks seemed to have designs on legitimizing themselves, bringing in ex-Vikings WR Sidney Rice and underrated tight end Zach Miller. Or at least you would have thought that had they not also signed QB Tarvaris Jackson and named him the starter. Now it seems they have designs on Andrew Luck.
AFC EAST
(2) New England — Chad Ochocinco? Albert Haynesworth? It's not like Bill Belichick hasn't taken on other teams' problem children before, but you can legitimately wonder how much Chad has left and if Haynesworth is in any kind of shape to be the dominant force he has been at times. Also, it's unlikely Tom Brady will have the same kind of season he had last year... but it's not impossible. Though it might actually be for the best that he doesn't, as that would mean that the Pats have the balance back that helped them win three Super Bowls last decade.
(6) N.Y. Jets — Another year, another conference title game loss. It seems to me that the Jets are going to have to figure out how to win the division if they want to get to the Super Bowl. Replacing Braylon Edwards with Plaxico Burress was eh. It's the nonexistent pass rush that should concern Jets fans — as good as Darrelle Revis is, he can still only cover one man at a time.
Buffalo — The best hope for Bills fans is that Harvard man Ryan Fitzpatrick throws for over 3,000 yards again. Because the only thing worse than being bad is being boring on top of it, and the Bills haven't been a good team for a decade and that may not change anytime soon.
Miami — Let's see: The owner doesn't want the coach. The coach doesn't want the quarterback. How is this a good situation again? It's not like there isn't talent here (more than the Bills, to be completely honest, and Reggie Bush will help), but this level of dysfunction would make Al Davis either proud or envious. That 11-5 season seems so long ago.
AFC NORTH
(1) Pittsburgh — The Steelers didn't make many significant changes to a team that got to the Super Bowl, and why would you? Although, bad things tend to happen to Super Bowl losers, so we'll see. Still, that trend's been bucked in recent years, and the Steelers are good enough and their schedule easy enough to smash the doomsayers' expectations. Just as long as they don't lead with their helmets.
(5) Baltimore — We could almost put last year's capsule here. Two big question marks: The back of their defense, which still appears to be held together with duct tape and cheap rope at the moment, and Joe Flacco's inability to play well against the Steelers in the playoffs.
Cleveland — Colt McCoy wasn't supposed to play last year. But Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace were... Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace (and also injured) so the rookie stepped in and was surprisingly not horrible given the absolute dearth of talent around him on both sides of the ball. Steps were taken, but they might be playing a waiting game in Cleveland. Plus, the Madden Curse, of all things, is in play. For the Browns. Think about that for a minute. But not any longer because your stomach will explode.
Cincinnati — Mike Brown called Carson Palmer's bluff. Problem is, Carson Palmer wasn't bluffing. So now rookie Andy Dalton takes the reins of what could be not only the worst team in the league, but also — with Chad gone to New England and T.O. just gone — probably the most boring. Coach Marvin Lewis is probably wishing he'd taken the Pitt job.
AFC SOUTH
(4) Houston — Last year was supposed to be the year, and the fact that we've been saying that three years running now is its own set of problems. What stopped the Texans last year was a truly horrible defense, especially against the pass, so they brought Wade Phillips from upstate Dallas to help fix it. But Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and Arian Foster aside, here are the brass tacks: If it doesn't happen this year, it's not happening until Peyton retires. Speaking OF Peyton...
Indianapolis — ...the lockout really screwed up his neck surgery and recovery as he couldn't work with the team trainers. Of course, it was bad enough that he was coming off neck surgery in the first place. Granted, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark are still around, and they actually spent some money to bring in some defensive help. But make no mistake, Peyton's the key to this whole thing, and if this lingers and Kerry Collins shows he should have stayed retired, this could get ugly fast.
Tennessee — Faced with a choice between Jeff Fisher and Vince Young, owner Bud Adams let them both go, promoting assistant and former Oilers lineman Mike Munchak. Also new is quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, who is here to help rookie Jake Locker get ready. Chris Johnson remains one of the league's premier running backs, but their defense was also bad last year and they didn't do a whole lot to make it better.
Jacksonville — Oh boy. They cut would-be starting quarterback David Garrard five days before the opener to save $8 million, then installed Luke McCown as the starter to keep the seat warm for top pick Blaine Gabbert, who I really think is going to be a bust. Coach Jack del Rio is probably wishing he'd taken the USC job.
AFC WEST
(3) San Diego — I'm willing to accept last year as an aberration caused by several contract disputes involving key players, all of which have been resolved in one fashion or another. Expect Philip Rivers to continue to put up numbers as the Chargers return to the top of the division only to promptly stall out in the playoffs, as is their wont.
Kansas City — Last year's surprise division champions no longer have that element working for them, and quarterback Matt Cassel's rib injury... complicates things. But they found a pass rush and added more speed on offense (WR Steve Breaston may end up being the best signing that nobody talked about), which should be enough to stay respectable.
Oakland — Darren McFadden finally had the season Raiders fans have been waiting for. They swept the division but still only went 8-8, sending loser in football and life Tom Cable out the door and kicking offensive coordinator Hue Jackson upstairs, which also means Jason Campbell won't be looking over his shoulder anymore. But they lost their best defensive player and their second-best offensive player, so they'll be fortunate to tread water.
Denver — Josh McDaniels inherited a mediocre team and was fired from a terrible one, so the Broncos brought in John Fox, fresh off helping botch the Panthers' last two seasons, to pick up the too-few pieces. We like ridiculing the Raiders for their seemingly endless parade of boneheaded personnel moves, but the Broncos' record over the last few years is just as bad. (The 2003 and 2007 drafts alone will make you want to curl up into the fetal position.) Though No. 2 overall pick Von Miller should help a beleaguered defense, it's the beginning of a long road back.
WILD CARD ROUND
NFC: Detroit over St. Louis; New Orleans over Atlanta
AFC: N.Y. Jets over San Diego; Baltimore over Houston
DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
NFC: Philadelphia over New Orleans; Green Bay over Detroit
AFC: Pittsburgh over Baltimore: New England over N.Y. Jets
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP
NFC: Green Bay over Philadelphia
AFC: New England over Pittsburgh
SUPER BOWL WHATEVER
Green Bay over New England
NFC EAST
(2) Philadelphia — The talk of the league after exceeding expectations last year, followed by an offseason spending blitz designed to fix some large holes in the defense, including becoming the somewhat surprising winner of the Nnamdi Asomugah sweepstakes. They've also hitched their wagon to Michael Vick for the foreseeable future, a development that absolutely no one would have predicted three years ago. But offensive line questions abound and may be the only thing holding them back if those questions don't get answered.
Dallas — In the recent past, the Cowboys have managed to choke on their own Super Bowl aspirations, and the year they won the division and a playoff game was the year that pundits had grown tired of their chronic underachieving. Which makes them hard to judge, since those expectations have been somewhat tempered, but they did play better when Jason Garrett took over midseason.
N.Y. Giants — Another late-season collapse ruined another season, yet Tom Coughlin gets an extension. Then they lost several key players through release (they turned over their offensive line but arguably made it worse), departure (they'll miss Steve Smith 2.0 more than everyone thinks) or disgruntlement (Oh, Osi) and saw several others get hurt in the preseason. Eli still gives them a fighting chance, especially if he cuts down on the turnovers, but I'm not optimistic and I worry about their collective psyche.
Washington — Arguably their biggest win of the year was getting an actual tangible asset for Albert Haynesworth, and ceding the title of "D.C.'s Most Overpaid Professional Athlete" to Jayson Werth in the process. This team was in shambles at the end of last season, with too many holes to fill in an abbreviated offseason, though they did avoid the monumentally stupid moves they were known for making under Daniel Snyder's ownership. Until they named Rex Grossman the starting QB, that is.
NFC NORTH
(1) Green Bay —The Packers were cut to pieces by injuries last season and still won the Super Bowl, a testament to how much talent they still had. With most of those players coming back, making the depth charts even deeper, there's little reason to expect any significant dropoff. A trip back to the Super Bowl is highly likely.
(5) Detroit — A trendy playoff pick, and for good reason: The Lions seem to finally have a plan and played better at the end of last season, winning a truly ugly game over the Packers and sending another longtime foe to the retirement home for good. Now if they can just keep Matthew Stafford upright...
Chicago — The Bears improved the least of the NFC North teams, as they seemed to follow the route of bringing in guys nobody else wanted because they aren't any good anymore (Roy Williams, Marion Barber III) or never were (Vernon Gholston). Plus, Jay Cutler's head is in question again after the NFC title game where he may or may not have begged off with a knee injury, and the offensive line, while improved over the second half of last season, remains a work in progress.
Minnesota — But let's say this: Fourth could be 8-8. The collapses of Brett Favre and the Metrodome, respectively, overshadowed the fact that pretty much every Viking of significance had a worse 2010 than 2009. Interestingly, new quarterback Donovan McNabb also fits into this category, and he'll want to prove he still has plenty left in his tank.
NFC SOUTH
(3) New Orleans — Made history in the bad way at the end of the season by losing to the under-.500 Seahawks in the playoffs. (The Madden Curse works in mysterious ways.) The Saints' offense will ensure they're always dangerous, but they'll need the defense to return to its Super Bowl-winning form.
(6) Atlanta — Still licking their wounds after being eviscerated by the Packers in the playoffs, the Falcons made a big draft-day move to get rookie receiver Julio Jones, putting a lot on his shoulders. Free agent DE Ray Edwards will help the pass rush, but given the high-octane offenses they'll face this season, they'll also need their cornerbacks to prove last year wasn't a fluke.
Tampa Bay — Pundits were concerned that the Bucs, who went a shocking 10-6 but missed the playoffs last year, didn't ride the momentum and use their cap room to upgrade at some weak positions. They may take a step back because the two teams above them are still better than them (and, like the Chiefs, they no longer have the element of surprise), but this is a young squad that looks like it's getting better.
Carolina — Ron Rivera gets his first shot at a head coaching job four years after his name was the hottest one out there. Fittingly, he has a rookie, No. 1 overall pick Cam Newton, at quarterback. The Panthers did well to keep the few good players they have in the fold, giving them something to rebuild around. But can Newton succeed at this level?
NFC WEST
(4) St. Louis — Basically by default. Quarterback Sam Bradford was better than some people expected last year, Steven Jackson had another solid season, and Danny Amendola somehow caught 85 passes, having arguably the most unremarkable "very good year" in the history of the sport. Late last year this division seemed to become theirs to lose, and this year there's no reason to think they won't actually win it.
Arizona — The Cardinals gave up a lot to get Kevin Kolb and his seven career starts, but they had to do something after running Derek Anderson, Max Hall and John Skelton out there last season (they'd have gotten equal production out of Louie Anderson, Monty Hall and Red Skelton). Of bigger worry might be the rest of their offense, as Larry Fitzgerald will be facing the same triple-teams that Steve Smith 1.0 is.
San Francisco — The Alex Smith era improbably continues as the Jim Harbaugh one begins
In a nice touch, the 49ers visit Jim's brother John's Baltimore Ravens on Thanksgiving night.
Seattle — After their surprising, and, some would say, blasphemous playoff appearance last year, the Seahawks seemed to have designs on legitimizing themselves, bringing in ex-Vikings WR Sidney Rice and underrated tight end Zach Miller. Or at least you would have thought that had they not also signed QB Tarvaris Jackson and named him the starter. Now it seems they have designs on Andrew Luck.
AFC EAST
(2) New England — Chad Ochocinco? Albert Haynesworth? It's not like Bill Belichick hasn't taken on other teams' problem children before, but you can legitimately wonder how much Chad has left and if Haynesworth is in any kind of shape to be the dominant force he has been at times. Also, it's unlikely Tom Brady will have the same kind of season he had last year... but it's not impossible. Though it might actually be for the best that he doesn't, as that would mean that the Pats have the balance back that helped them win three Super Bowls last decade.
(6) N.Y. Jets — Another year, another conference title game loss. It seems to me that the Jets are going to have to figure out how to win the division if they want to get to the Super Bowl. Replacing Braylon Edwards with Plaxico Burress was eh. It's the nonexistent pass rush that should concern Jets fans — as good as Darrelle Revis is, he can still only cover one man at a time.
Buffalo — The best hope for Bills fans is that Harvard man Ryan Fitzpatrick throws for over 3,000 yards again. Because the only thing worse than being bad is being boring on top of it, and the Bills haven't been a good team for a decade and that may not change anytime soon.
Miami — Let's see: The owner doesn't want the coach. The coach doesn't want the quarterback. How is this a good situation again? It's not like there isn't talent here (more than the Bills, to be completely honest, and Reggie Bush will help), but this level of dysfunction would make Al Davis either proud or envious. That 11-5 season seems so long ago.
AFC NORTH
(1) Pittsburgh — The Steelers didn't make many significant changes to a team that got to the Super Bowl, and why would you? Although, bad things tend to happen to Super Bowl losers, so we'll see. Still, that trend's been bucked in recent years, and the Steelers are good enough and their schedule easy enough to smash the doomsayers' expectations. Just as long as they don't lead with their helmets.
(5) Baltimore — We could almost put last year's capsule here. Two big question marks: The back of their defense, which still appears to be held together with duct tape and cheap rope at the moment, and Joe Flacco's inability to play well against the Steelers in the playoffs.
Cleveland — Colt McCoy wasn't supposed to play last year. But Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace were... Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace (and also injured) so the rookie stepped in and was surprisingly not horrible given the absolute dearth of talent around him on both sides of the ball. Steps were taken, but they might be playing a waiting game in Cleveland. Plus, the Madden Curse, of all things, is in play. For the Browns. Think about that for a minute. But not any longer because your stomach will explode.
Cincinnati — Mike Brown called Carson Palmer's bluff. Problem is, Carson Palmer wasn't bluffing. So now rookie Andy Dalton takes the reins of what could be not only the worst team in the league, but also — with Chad gone to New England and T.O. just gone — probably the most boring. Coach Marvin Lewis is probably wishing he'd taken the Pitt job.
AFC SOUTH
(4) Houston — Last year was supposed to be the year, and the fact that we've been saying that three years running now is its own set of problems. What stopped the Texans last year was a truly horrible defense, especially against the pass, so they brought Wade Phillips from upstate Dallas to help fix it. But Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and Arian Foster aside, here are the brass tacks: If it doesn't happen this year, it's not happening until Peyton retires. Speaking OF Peyton...
Indianapolis — ...the lockout really screwed up his neck surgery and recovery as he couldn't work with the team trainers. Of course, it was bad enough that he was coming off neck surgery in the first place. Granted, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark are still around, and they actually spent some money to bring in some defensive help. But make no mistake, Peyton's the key to this whole thing, and if this lingers and Kerry Collins shows he should have stayed retired, this could get ugly fast.
Tennessee — Faced with a choice between Jeff Fisher and Vince Young, owner Bud Adams let them both go, promoting assistant and former Oilers lineman Mike Munchak. Also new is quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, who is here to help rookie Jake Locker get ready. Chris Johnson remains one of the league's premier running backs, but their defense was also bad last year and they didn't do a whole lot to make it better.
Jacksonville — Oh boy. They cut would-be starting quarterback David Garrard five days before the opener to save $8 million, then installed Luke McCown as the starter to keep the seat warm for top pick Blaine Gabbert, who I really think is going to be a bust. Coach Jack del Rio is probably wishing he'd taken the USC job.
AFC WEST
(3) San Diego — I'm willing to accept last year as an aberration caused by several contract disputes involving key players, all of which have been resolved in one fashion or another. Expect Philip Rivers to continue to put up numbers as the Chargers return to the top of the division only to promptly stall out in the playoffs, as is their wont.
Kansas City — Last year's surprise division champions no longer have that element working for them, and quarterback Matt Cassel's rib injury... complicates things. But they found a pass rush and added more speed on offense (WR Steve Breaston may end up being the best signing that nobody talked about), which should be enough to stay respectable.
Oakland — Darren McFadden finally had the season Raiders fans have been waiting for. They swept the division but still only went 8-8, sending loser in football and life Tom Cable out the door and kicking offensive coordinator Hue Jackson upstairs, which also means Jason Campbell won't be looking over his shoulder anymore. But they lost their best defensive player and their second-best offensive player, so they'll be fortunate to tread water.
Denver — Josh McDaniels inherited a mediocre team and was fired from a terrible one, so the Broncos brought in John Fox, fresh off helping botch the Panthers' last two seasons, to pick up the too-few pieces. We like ridiculing the Raiders for their seemingly endless parade of boneheaded personnel moves, but the Broncos' record over the last few years is just as bad. (The 2003 and 2007 drafts alone will make you want to curl up into the fetal position.) Though No. 2 overall pick Von Miller should help a beleaguered defense, it's the beginning of a long road back.
WILD CARD ROUND
NFC: Detroit over St. Louis; New Orleans over Atlanta
AFC: N.Y. Jets over San Diego; Baltimore over Houston
DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
NFC: Philadelphia over New Orleans; Green Bay over Detroit
AFC: Pittsburgh over Baltimore: New England over N.Y. Jets
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP
NFC: Green Bay over Philadelphia
AFC: New England over Pittsburgh
SUPER BOWL WHATEVER
Green Bay over New England
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Fearful Forecast 2009
We recognize that some of you may be new, due to the promotion. What follows are the opinions of one solitary man, opinions reached after painstaking research on the opinions of other solitary men. Place as little stock in these as you possibly can, because there have been years where I've been catastrophically wrong. Like last year, where neither of my Super Bowl teams even made the playoffs. Playoff seeds are in parentheses.
NFC
EAST
(1) Philadelphia – Even though I'm terrified by all the turnover and problems on defense, I think I ultimately went this way because Donovan McNabb's a better quarterback than Eli Manning and this looks like a team that can score enough points to overcome its defensive issues, which may well sort themselves out.
(5) N.Y. Giants – The G-Men might actually have the best defense in the league, or at least have the personnel and potential for it. But we saw how one-dimensional their offense became last year when Plaxico shot himself in the foot, and the always-reliable Amani Toomer isn't around anymore either. They're a playoff team, but the young receivers need to develop if they want to think Super Bowl.
Dallas – The Cowboys still have plenty of talent on paper, but they seem to lack heart and discipline and are running out of scapegoats. This could go well, or this could become a disaster, especially with their December schedule; they could lose their last five games (at Giants, San Diego, at New Orleans, at Washington, Philadelphia.)
Washington – I don't see it. Even with Albert Haynesworth and his huge new contract, they still don't do anything better than any of the other teams in the division. Plus, somebody's got to lose these division games.
NORTH
(3) Green Bay – Yeah, I'm bucking the trend here. It's how I roll. Seriously, Aaron Rodgers will put up the best numbers of any quarterback in this division, and the defense, which was the root of almost all of the Packers' problems despite having good players on it, can't – and won't – get much worse.
Minnesota – I know. Adrian Peterson. The defense. I KNOW. But I also know that Brett Favre isn't capable of handing off 35 times a game. He'll also be 40 in 30 days. If he has enough left and can show even a little bit of restraint, the Vikings could be a Super Bowl team. If he gunslings the Vikings into disaster – which is what I see happening – he'll cost 20 people their jobs. Including himself. And, ironically, Tarvaris Jackson.
Chicago – The Bears made the move the Vikings probably should have made in getting Jay Cutler. But his wide receivers are questionable at best and the defense needs Brian Urlacher to return to form for this crew to be taken seriously this year.
Detroit – It actually can't get any worse. And they went on a similar free agent shopping spree last year and ended up with zero wins and a quarterback who probably wasn't the best player on his team in college. But this space says it'll start to get better on Nov. 1.
SOUTH
(2) New Orleans – New defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has a reputation for reviving defenses. The offense needs no reviving, and I see Reggie Bush having a big year, which will only help Drew Brees and company.
(6) Atlanta – I'm fully aware that the Falcons have somehow never had back-to-back winning seasons. Seriously, that seems almost impossible. Despite that, I get a real sense this time that things are different. The Tony Gonzalez trade was good for all parties involved.
Carolina – Mostly because they won the division last year and there hasn't been a repeat winner in the last six or seven years. Their injuries on defense are going to hurt them, and I don't see the Julius Peppers thing ending well at all.
Tampa Bay – The Bucs are in full rebuilding mode after probably waiting two weeks too long to fire Jon Gruden. Byron Leftwich is a good stopgap until top pick Josh Freeman is ready, but don't expect too much from Tampa this season.
WEST
(4) Seattle – Assuming Matt Hasselbeck stays healthy and their WR corps doesn't get sliced and diced by injuries again, the talent level is about the same as when the Seahawks were ruling this division, Plus...
Arizona – Remember, bad things always happen to the team that loses the Super Bowl. Fortunately, the NFC West is still pretty bad (and the Seahawks are the last Super Bowl loser in recent memory to return to the playoffs the following season). Unfortunately, they've also got the Madden curse working against them, too. Fear – or fear for – Larry Fitzgerald.
San Francisco – To be honest, they're probably still a quarterback away. And Michael Crabtree if he ever shows up. He won't have a fan in coach Mike Singletary, by the way.
St. Louis – There's really not that much to like here. They can't defend the pass, Marc Bulger might be declining and if anything happens to Stephen Jackson it's pretty much over.
AFC
EAST
(1) New England – I'll say mostly the same thing I said last year: The Pats will never admit it publicly, but they are going to be angry and out for blood after their season ended the way it did. BTW, Bernard Pollard's available. I fear for the rest of the league. Yes, again.
Miami – WILDCAT. Shouldn't it have been “Wild Fish” or something? Ronnie Brown's still close to ridiculously good, and things are gelling on the defensive side as well, but the element of surprise is long gone.
N.Y. Jets – Say this: they're not afraid to make moves. Starting rookie Mark Sanchez at quarterback will probably set them back a little further than they'd like, but it could be the gradual start of something. They have a similar problem to the Redskins – someone has to lose these divisional games.
Buffalo – Weep not, Turk Schonert; Dick Jauron will be joining you in unemployment soon enough. T.O.'s not the player he was, I don't know if Trent Edwards will ever be anything, and that offensive line is... not good.
NORTH
(3) Pittsburgh – Same old, same old. The champs lost no one irreplaceable and actually get back second-year runner Rashard Mendenhall to help with the rushing attack.
(6) Baltimore – Much will hinge on whether Joe Flacco can dodge the sophomore slump and handle an increased role in making the Ravens' offense go. It'll also hinge on how many big years Derrick Mason has left and how well mammoth rookie tackle Michael Oher can protect Flacco. The defense remains top-notch with playmakers and brutes everywhere.
Cleveland – The Browns won't be great, but they might be a little better than people think. Whoever the quarterback is – probably Brady Quinn – needs to hope that Jamal Lewis still has a tank left and that Braylon Edwards can remember how to catch.
Cincinnati – The Bengals' defense actually got respectable near the end of last season (I'm a fan of CBs Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph), but it was the offense that went into the tank with Palmer's injury and Chad either being frozen out or having his head stuck up his ass. I don't know. If those two can get back on the same page, things could get interesting again. But that might be a big 'if'.
SOUTH
(4) Indianapolis – I'm of the opinion that Peyton was sandbagging everybody earlier this year when he sounded worried about all of the coaching turnover. And he'd better be – one of my fantasy teams is half Colts. They still sport a top-notch offense and they finally brought in some bulk on the defensive front to help slow teams down. Teams like...
(5) Tennessee – The Titans ran their way to the best record in the AFC before an inauspicious loss to the Ravens at home in the playoffs. They hope to have added more balance with rookie wideout Kenny Britt (Rutgers~!) and Nate Washington, who's good for at least one 50-yard bomb a game.
Houston – The Texans have been the 'team of the future' for about three years now, much like the Cardinals were earlier this decade. If they don't break through this season, I fear they always will be. But they've got a chance to do that with an improving defense to complement Andre Johnson and Steve Slaton. QB Matt Schaub staying upright is paramount.
Jacksonville – Nobody's going to the games any more. The Jaguars will probably be in the same predicament as the Redskins and Jets in that somebody has to lose these games within the division. A healthy offensive like would help. Maurice Jones-Drew is monstrous and will keep them in games.
WEST
(2) San Diego – It's a shot of tequila, not at it, Shawne! The only thing holding the Chargers back at this point is Norv Turner, because everything else is in place for a Super Bowl run.
Oakland – Hey, somebody's got to finish second. (Of course, 'second' could be 6-10.) If Richard Seymour decides to show up, the Raiders' defense becomes not all that bad, but the offense still needs a lot of work and/or talent.
Kansas City – The Chiefs did some... interesting things this off-season I'm not sure how bringing in a 13-year veteran linebacker helps a youth movement but whatever, Mike Vrabel can still play. New coach Todd Haley has shown he's not afraid to challenge guys, but who is Matt Cassel, really? He doesn't have anywhere close to the help he had in New England.
Denver – Understand this: I like Kyle Orton. I thought he should have been starting in Chicago all along over Rex and I think he's a guy who can succeed in this league in the right set of circumstances. That said, there is no scenario where I'd rather have him than Jay Cutler. Throw in Brandon Marshall's rampant jackassery and a deceptively brutal schedule – seriously, take a good look at that thing – and this could be catastrophic.
WILD CARD
N.Y. Giants over Seattle; Green Bay over Atlanta
Indianapolis over Tennessee; Pittsburgh over Baltimore
DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
New Orleans over Green Bay; Philadelphia over N.Y. Giants
New England over Indianapolis; Pittsburgh over San Diego
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
New Orleans over Philadelphia (not that it matters; no one in the NFC is beating any of the AFC's final four)
New England over Pittsburgh
SUPER BOWL XLIV
New England over New Orleans (This looks familiar... yeah... these are the teams I picked for the Super Bowl last year, with the same result.)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)